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Today's Morning View - Copper rises as Beijing vows to shore up markets

SP Angel . Morning View . Wednesday 16 03 22Copper rises as Beijing vows to shore up marketsCLICK FOR PDF MiFID II exempt information – see disclaimer below Arc Minerals* (ARCM LN) – BUY – Judgements on legal settlement granted in ZambiaAtl

SP Angel . Morning View . Wednesday 16 03 22

Copper rises as Beijing vows to shore up markets

CLICK FOR PDF

MiFID II exempt information – see disclaimer below

Arc Minerals Limited (AIM:ARCM) – BUY – Judgements on legal settlement granted in Zambia

Atlantic Lithium Limited (AIM:ALL) – CFO appointed to Board

Centamin PLC (TSX:CEE, LSE:CEY, OTC:CELTF) – Sukari achieves guidance in 2021 as operational transition moves ahead

Cora Gold Ltd (AIM:CORA) – 7,500t drilling launched at Sanankoro

Horizonte Minerals PLC (AIM:HZM, TSX:HZM, OTC:HZMMF) – Araguia Project debt agreement

Scotgold Resources Limited (AIM:SGZ) - BUY – Appointment of CFO & NED

Commodity trading houses scramble for liquidity as volatility intensifies

  • Bloomberg reports Trafigura is in discussions with Blackstone for a $3bn equity investment as the trading house continues the process of ‘building relationships with alternative providers of capital.’
  • Trafigura has gross debt of $45bn alongside $66bn of credit lines from 140 different banks. (FT, Sep. 2021)
  • Excessive volatility, as seen in the LME nickel short squeeze has caused significant margin calls stressing a number of commodity traders and leading to likely legal action against the LME exchange.
  • Both commodity traders and producers are reported to have entered discussions with central banks to ‘expand their range of accepted collateral’ amid whipsawing volatility. (Risk.net)
  • The European Federation of Energy Traders has alerted that ‘multiple market participants face a risk of not having sufficient cash reserves to meet margin calls.’
  • Analysts expect a continued search from commodity traders for liquidity, with the market dominated by ING Groep NV, Credit Agricole, UniCredit and a small number of other private European banks.
  • A significant deterioration in available liquidity raises the potential of an emergency fiscal intervention from central banks.

LME nickel suspended down on first day’s trading since suspension on major short squeeze

  • LME Nickel opened down 8% at $43,995 in its first day’s trading since March 7th.
  • The LME has reported a ‘systems error’ with its ‘uncrossing algorithm’, which immediately triggered an opening price of $45,590/t, below its 5% limit.
  • Any trade above or below the 5% limit of $45,674/t-$50,482/t is not expected to be accepted on the exchange. (Reuters)
  • A minimal 206 lots (1 lot = 6 tonnes) were traded on the market before suspension.
  • The LME is making ‘every effort to reopen’ for ‘nickel trading as soon as possible.’
  • We note that large short positions on the LME nickel market were not limited to Tsingshan and Big Shot, with trading houses and miners also reported to have held significant hedge positions.
  • Tsingshan’s agreement with its creditors did, however, enable trading to resume on the market.
  • Commodity prices have cooled this week, with aluminium down c. $800/t and oil hovering around $100/bbl.

Creditors of giant Chinese copper smelter Xiangguang stop loan renewals

  • Creditors of one of China’s largest copper smelters have stopped providing more loans over concerns about the company’s ability to repay, Bloomberg reports.
  • Yanggu Xiangguang Copper has capacity to smelt 450,000t of copper per annum, and is thought to have liabilities of around $1.7bn.
  • Lenders of Xiangguang include Chinese and foreign banks.
  • The smelter’s foreign copper concentrate suppliers have stopped sending material because Xiangguang was unable to secure letters of credit from its bank.
  • Last week, news outlets reported that at least three copper smelters in China have been approached by Yanggu Xiangguang offering its copper concentrate shipments amid financial stress.

Conclusion: Firms across China are finding it increasingly harder to gain access to credit following the Evergrande crisis last year which spooked top authority figures in China and caused state banks to rein in lending. Beijing is targeting a 5.5% economic expansion this year and hampering industrial powerhouses such as Xiangguang by withholding credit may have the unwanted effect of restricting growth in key areas – although many may see it as a welcome change to China’s loose credit policies in recent years.

Gold continues to weaken as investors remain cautious ahead of today’s Fed rate decision

  • Gold slid slightly to $1,918/oz amid a wider correction of commodities.
  • Analysts expect a combination of short-term momentum bets trimming positions and cautious trading ahead of the Fed’s rate hike decision to be weighing on gold prices.
  • ETF holdings continued to remain elevated at 103.5moz, suggesting long term buyers have held firm on bullish gold positions.
  • Gold is currently vulnerable to an aggressive Fed rate hike programme, but that headwind could be outweighed by continued inflation triggered by supply chain disruptions from both Ukraine-Russia and China Covid lockdowns.

Lithium prices continue to rise with China’s insatiable carbonate appetite

  • Lithium carbonate prices have doubled in 2022, following a 4x rise in 2021. (BMI)
  • Battery grade carbonate in China has risen 10% over the past fortnight.
  • China lithium hydroxide prices are up 120% ytd.

Dow Jones Industrials +1.82% at 33,544

Nikkei 225 +1.64% at 25,762

HK Hang Seng +9.09% at 20,088

Shanghai Composite +3.48% at 3,171

Economics

  • US – Risk sentiment is stronger this morning with major US equity futures indices trading higher on pro-stimulus comments from the State Council in China as well as hopes for a positive resolution in peace talks between Russia/Ukraine.
  • Markets will be closely watching the US Fed press conference today with estimates for a 25bp hike in the benchmark rate, the first one since the start of the Covid pandemic in early 2020.
  • Updated dot plot will be provided providing a revision to Fed members inflation expectations and the path of the benchmark rate over the next couple of years.
  • December dot plot guided for three 25bp rate hikes in 2022 while market expectations are currently for 6-7.

China – Liu He, a vice premier of the State Council and a close economic adviser to President Xi, said authorities will take measures to “boost the economy in the first quarter” along with “policies that are favourable to the market”.

  • Governor of the central bank also held a meeting today to follow up on the State Council’s comments saying that monetary policy will remain proactive.
  • Comments over potential supportive measures lifted equities in the Chinese market with mainland indices bouncing off levels last seen mid-2020.
  • Benchmark Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 index was up 4.3% this morning.
  • Hang Seng was up more than 9% after coming close to the low of early 2016 amid new Covid outbreaks reported in China, geopolitical risks and fears over Beijing’s ties with Russia to bring potential political backlash as well as soaring inflation expectations.

China – Covid increasingly disrupts factories in China

  • Tesla has stopped work at Gigafactory 3 at its Shanghai which makes Model 3 and Model Y vehicles.
  • The Chinese authorities are locking down residential and office sites following mass testing
  • No reason has been given for the suspension of production at the Tesla site but we believe other factories in China have also been ordered to shut down.
  • Tesla was also shutdown at end January delaying the ramp up of Model 3 production over Covid fears.
  • We have to wonder if China is picking on Tesla as a US company competing with Chinese electric vehicle manufacturers.

European carmakers hit by Russia-Ukraine conflict

  • BMW and VW have had to slash factory production across Europe following the shutdown of Ukrainian wiring plants.
  • Ukraine houses 40 automobile parts factories accounting for 20% of Europe’s harness supply. (AutoAnalysis)
  • VW is ‘examining all options to compensate for the production interruptions.’
  • BMW has raised the possibility of ‘maintaining production in Ukraine’ or more to ‘alternative locations.’
  • The Russia-Ukraine conflict adds to automakers struggles with both semiconductor shortages and supply chain disruptions, including a scarcity of truck drivers.

UK – The central bank rate decision is due tomorrow with estimates for a third consecutive 25bp hike taking the rate to 0.75%.

Inflation climbed to 5.5%yoy in January, compared to a 2% BOE target, with core CPI measure also up at 4.4%.

Russia – Debt default to likely to have significant impact on lenders and investors into the region

Forecasting the impact of the Russian debt default may not be easy.

President puffy face has decreed that all holders of Russian debt must receive their interest in roubles.

The Russian finance ministry has said it will service sovereign debt in full and on time but that payments depend on western sanctions

Ukraine/Russia – President Zelensky said “the positions in the negotiations sound more realistic” while warning that “time is still needed for the decisions to be in Ukraine’s interests”.

Russia’s Foreign Minister, Sergei Lavrov, said both sides were discussing “specific wordings that are close to being agreed” at the talks including security guarantees for Moscow and neutrality for Kyiv.

Currencies

US$1.0989/eur vs 1.1007/eur yesterday. Yen 118.28/$ vs 118.01/$. SAr 15.054/$ vs 15.113/$. $1.306/gbp vs $1.303/gbp. 0.723/aud vs 0.719/aud. CNY 6.343/$ vs 6.379/$.

Commodity News

Precious metals:

Gold US$1,917/oz vs US$1,928/oz yesterday

Gold ETFs 103.5moz vs US$103.5moz yesterday

Platinum US$1,001/oz vs US$1,022/oz yesterday

Palladium US$2,463/oz vs US$2,409/oz yesterday

Silver US$24.82/oz vs US$24.72/oz yesterday

Rhodium US$18,700/oz vs US$18,500/oz yesterday

Base metals:

Copper US$ 10,065/t vs US$9,858/t yesterday

Aluminium US$ 3,346/t vs US$3,296/t yesterday

Nickel US$ 43,995/t vs US$48,002/t yesterday

Zinc US$ 3,804/t vs US$3,768/t yesterday

Lead US$ 2,266/t vs US$2,261/t yesterday

Tin US$ 43,100/t vs US$42,040/t yesterday

Energy:

Oil US$103.3/bbl vs US$101.0/bbl yesterday

Natural Gas US$4.728/mmbtu vs US$4.571/mmbtu yesterday

Uranium UXC US$55.60/lb vs $57.45/lb yesterday

Bulk:

Iron ore 62% Fe spot (cfr Tianjin) US$140.1/t vs US$147.3/t

Chinese steel rebar 25mm US$765.7/t vs US$763.3/t

Thermal coal (1st year forward cif ARA) US$187.0/t vs US$187.0/t

Thermal coal swap Australia FOB US$325.0/t vs US$340.0/t

Coking coal swap Australia FOB US$630.7/t vs US$630.7/t

Other:

Cobalt LME 3m US$82,000/t vs US$82,000/t

NdPr Rare Earth Oxide (China) US$164,743/t vs US$163,819/t - Australia unveils rare earth funding plan to fight Chinese dominance

  • Prime Minister Scott Morrison is to announce a A$243m ($175m) plan to fund four new refining projects, working with the US to diversify sources of battery metals.
  • Industry, Energy and Emissions Reduction Minister Angus Taylor said that while Australia had some of the world’s largest reserves of rare earths, China dominated around 70-80% of the industry globally.
  • The plan covers four new projects, including a new nickel-manganese-cobalt battery material refinery hub in Kalgoorlie and a vanadium refinery led by Australian Vanadium.
  • Arafura’s Nolans NdPr project is expected to receive around A$30m to support its $90.8m rare earth separation plant in the Northern Territory.

Lithium carbonate 99% (China) US$74,489/t vs US$74,071/t

China Spodumene Li2O 5%min CIF US$2,740/t vs US$2,740/t

Ferro-Manganese European Mn78% min US$2,270/t vs US$2,273/t

China Tungsten APT 88.5% FOB US$340/t vs US$340/t

China Graphite Flake -194 FOB US$805/t vs US$805/t

Europe Vanadium Pentoxide 98% 12.4/lb vs US$12.3/lb

Europe Ferro-Vanadium 80% 61.75/kg vs US$60.25/kg

China Ilmenite Concentrate TiO2 US$398/t vs US$396/t

Spot CO2 Emissions EUA Price US$84.3/t vs US$85.2/t

Brazil Potash CFR Granular Spot US$1100/t vs US$820/t

Battery News

Denmark reaches political agreement for 6GW electrolysis target

  • A political agreement has been reached in Denmark to spur Power-to-X technologies, including a $184m tender for hydrogen production, the Ministry of Climate, Energy and Utilities has announced.
  • The country’s ambition is to deploy 4GW to 6GW of electrolysis capacity by 2030, which is among the highest targets in Europe.
  • Denmark recently launched a strategy for Power-to-X, converting electricity into green hydrogen and other e-fuels, to be used in shipping, aviation, heavy transport and industry – it is also looking at export opportunities.
  • The 6GW target will be dependent on the development of solar and wind energy but energy minister Dan Jorgensen declined to say if the new agreement would trigger new renewable tenders.

Envision AESC and Mercedes-Benz announce new battery partnership

  • Envision AESC, has announced a new partnership with Mercedes-Benz as the German automotive brand plans to go all electric by 2030.
  • Under the new agreement, Envision AESC will supply high-performance battery cell modules to support end-to-end production of all-electric Mercedes-EQ vehicles in Alabama.
  • The new Envision AESC gigafactory in the US follows the companies 2021 plans to build battery gigafactory's in France, Japan and the UK.
  • Envision is aiming to have 300GWh+ capacity by 2030, powered by net-zero energy.

France launches tenders for floating offshore wind

  • France has started the competitive tendering procedure for the development of two 250MW floating offshore wind farms in the Mediterranean Sea.
  • The winners of the bidding procedure will be selected in 2023 and the two wind farms are expected to be commissioned by 2030.
  • France closed the world’s first auction for a commercial-sized floating offshore wind farm in 2021 – another 250MW farm located south of Brittany.

Company News

Arc Minerals Limited (AIM:ARCM)* – 3.66p, Mkt cap £42m – Judgements on legal settlement granted in Zambia

(Arc holds 72.5% of Zaco and 66% of Zamsort in Zambia. The Cheyeza license is 66% owned by Arc Minerals through its holding in Zamsort.)

BUY - CLICK FOR PDF

  • Arc Minerals reports the receipt of legal judgements in relation to its settlement with Terra Metals Limited, Zambia Mineral Exchange Corporation Limited and certain of their directors including Mumena Mushinge, Brian Chisala.
  • The settlement causes the claimants to relinquish all claims against Zamsort Limited or any other company in the Arc group.
  • A Tomlin order has been executed in the UK in relation to the UK court proceedings causing any court action relating to the above parties in the UK to be suspended.
  • The Zambian judgement and Tomlin order should ensure no further legal claims are possible from the above claimants.
  • The settlement should enable Arc Minerals to agree a deal with one or more major companies on their exploration licenses in Zambia.
  • Drilling has revealed significant showings of copper indicating strong potential for significant discovery in the region west of First Quantum’s’ Sentinel mining complex near Solweizi.
  • We suspect any major deal could include a royalty component for Arc which may be worth a substantial sum assuming current metals prices.
  • Management have previously stated: “The principal discussion is with one major but there are two others which have reached out for further discussion.”

*SP Angel acts as Nomad and broker. An SP Angel analyst has driven across the Zambian copper belt, flying the British flag, to visit Arc’s licenses West of Sloweizi.

Atlantic Lithium Limited (AIM:ALL)* 36p, Mkt cap £207m – CFO appointed to Board

  • Atlantic Lithium reports that its CFO and company secretary Amanda Harsas has been appointed to the Board as Finance Director with immediate effect.
  • Amanda has over 20 years’ experience in finance, and prior to joining Atlantic Lithium worked across several sectors including healthcare, insurance, retail and professional services.
  • Amanda is a Chartered Accountant, holds a Bachelor of Business and has international experience in Asia, Europe and the U.S.

*SP Angel acts as nomad and broker to Atlantic Lithium

Centamin PLC (TSX:CEE, LSE:CEY, OTC:CELTF) 90.2p, Mkt Cap £1,135m – Sukari achieves guidance in 2021 as operational transition moves ahead

  • Describing 2021 as a year of transformation in the first, and peak year, of a three-year programme to ‘reset’ the business Centamin has reported lower production and higher capital expenditure and a reduction in revenue, profit and cash flow.
  • The reports a 35% decline in attributable earnings of US$101.5m (2020 – US$156.0m) a reduction of 25% in adjusted EBITDA to US$328.6m (2020 – US$437.6m) and a 12% decline in revenues to US$733.3m (2020- US$828.7m) on the back of 8% lower gold production of 415,370oz.
  • Cash costs were 21% higher at US$866/oz (2020 – US$719/oz) although the rise in costs on an all-in-sustaining basis were 19% higher at US$1,234/oz.
  • Centamin reports a “Strong balance sheet with no debt or hedging, and cash and liquid assets of US$257 million, as at 31 December 2021”.
  • The company is proposing a final dividend of 5US¢/share (US$58m) bringing “total distribution to shareholders for full year 2021 to US$105 million”.
  • Centamin is maintaining its current guidance for 2022 with gold output expected to be in the range 430-460,000oz at a cash cost between US$900-1,000/oz and all-in-sustaining costs in the range US$1,275-1,425/oz sold. Gold production is weighted towards the second half of the year on a 45:55 basis “driven by lower scheduled tonnes from the underground in H1 as the mine transitions to owner-operator”.
  • Capital expenditure of US$225.5m in 2022 is expected to be weighted towards the first half of the year on a 65:35 basis.
  • CEO, Martin Horgan, described 2021 as “a year of continued delivery for Centamin including meeting our production and cost guidance and excellent progress on our key capital projects”.
  • He also explained that “Geology is the foundation upon which our business is built - a comprehensive understanding of our orebodies both underpins our ability to ensure consistent and reliable performance while simultaneously identifying growth opportunities. During 2021 we placed significant effort into refocussing our approach to orebody stewardship by establishing new exploration and mineral resource management teams. This change in approach has already seen significant benefits with resource and reserve growth at Sukari, a roadmap to value realisation in West Africa and the clear identification of further growth potential across our newly enlarged portfolio of assets that includes the exploration permits in Egypt”.
  • Centamin expects to spend US$25m on exploration during 2022 as it continues exploration of Egypt’s Nubian Shield, where it acquired an additional 3,000km2 of exploration licences during the year, and advances its Doropo and ABC exploration projects in Cote d’Ivoire.

Conclusion: Centamin’s decision to move to owner operation at Sukari is a major departure from the previous operating model which we view as a tangible sign of management’s confidence in the long-term future of underground mining at Sukari. The company describes 2021 as the peak year of its transition and is looking for a 15-45,000oz increase in gold output this year at slightly increased unit costs as it implements the transition plan.

Cora Gold Ltd (AIM:CORA) 7.2p, Mkt Cap £21m – 7,500t drilling launched at Sanankoro

  • The Company launched a 7,500m infill and step out drilling programme.
  • Assay results will be results as they are made available with the programme expected to be completed in Q2/22.
  • The Sanankoro Gold Project is currently estimated to host 21.9mt at 1.15g/t for 809koz in total resource including 541koz at 1.33g/t in the Indicated category and 269koz at 0.90g/t in the Inferred Resource.
  • Work on the DFS is ongoing with the study expected to be completed in H1/22.

Horizonte Minerals PLC (AIM:HZM, TSX:HZM, OTC:HZMMF) 6.65p, Mkt Cap £251m – Araguia Project debt agreement

  • The Company reports that it has now signed the formal agreements for its previously announced US$346.2m senior debt facility for the development of the Araguia ferro-nickel project in Brazil.
  • Horizonte Minerals has previously reported that the senior debt facility comprises two tranches:
  • Tranche A of $146.2m, guaranteed by the ECA’s (Export Credit Agencies) covering a number of equipment and service provider contracts.
  • Tranche B of $200m.
  • Terms of Tranche A and B are 10.5y and 8.5y, respectively.
  • Tranche A costs LIBOR + 1.80% and Tranche B is charged LIBOR + 4.25% to 4.75%.
  • The company has also signed agreements for its US$25m cost-overrun facility which is “a condition precedent to first drawdown under the Senior Debt Facility” and protects against “a cost overrun against the construction schedule and budget” subject to conditions including “the Company having deployed 90% of the funding from the equity fundraise and convertible notes … toward the construction of the Araguaia ferronickel project”.
  • Horizonte Minerals confirms that it expects to draw-down the Convertible Note funding with Orion and La Mancha Investments “in full “in the short term”.
  • Welcoming the agreements, CEO, Jeremy Martin, described the funding process as “complex but, the US$633 million funding package is transformational for the Company. With a fully funded, tier one project, under construction Horizonte is uniquely positioned with our ability to bring a scalable production profile to the nickel market which is currently facing significant supply challenges”.
  • Mr. Martin said that Horizonte Minerals is looking forward to “reporting on our progress as we finalise key equipment and services contracts and work on site moves towards the start of earthworks for the RKEF processing plant facility in Q2”.
  • The Araguaia project expects to produce approximately 14,500tpa of nickel contained in 52,000tpa of ferronickel by treating 900,000tpa of ore during Phase 1. A subsequent, second phase of the project includes the flexibility to double production to 29,000tpa of contained nickel by the addition of a second rotary kiln electric furnace in the third year of the project

Conclusion: The completion of the funding for Araguaia clears the way for project development and we look forward to further news as the construction gains momentum.

Scotgold Resources Limited (AIM:SGZ)* 67p, Mkt Cap £40m – Appointment of CFO & NED

BUY - 162p

  • Scotgold reports the appointment of Sean Duffy as CFO and Evan Spencer as NED and Chairman of the Technical Committee, to the Board of Scotgold with immediate effect.
  • Mr. Duffy has more than 25 years of finance experience in the mining industry, previously as CFO and Company Secretary for Adriatic Metals and prior to this Black Dragon Gold, Asian Mineral Resources and Anglo Asian Mining.
  • Mr Duffy has also held senior finance roles at BHP Billiton's global operations, including Finance Director of BHP Billiton Indonesia.
  • Mr. Spencer has held senior roles with Barrick Gold, Western Mining Corporation, Placer Dome, Kagara Corp, Gold Fields Ltd and Aditya Birla Minerals, along with the position of CEO of the Ban Phuc nickel mine and Nevada Copper mine.
  • Mr Spencer has a depth of experience in managing mining operations both underground and open pit, enabling him to provide great experience as the Company advances the underground mine at Cononish.
  • The Company also announces that Phillip Jackson and Richard Gray have notified the board that they intend to stand down from the Scotgold Board with immediate effect. Ian Proctor will take over the position as Chair of the Audit committee from Phillip Jackson.

*SP Angel acts as nomad and broker to Scotgold Resources

SP Angel and Digbee ESG joint initiative for mining companies

https://www.uploadlibrary.com/SPAngel_JohnMeyer/DIGBEE_Press_release.pdf

  • SP Angel and Digbee, a specialist ESG group, wish to announce their joint initiative in bringing ESG accreditation to mining companies in their drive to meet institutional investment and rapidly evolving ESG standards and regulatory requirements.
  • We are rapidly approaching a point where a company’s ESG profile will not simply be a positive investment factor but will become a precondition to investment by many investment funds.
  • The guidance and ratings process developed by Digbee is specifically designed to assist mining companies meet the new expectations and ensure directors meet their ESG compliance objectives.
  • The initiative will not only quantify and score the ESG profile of qualifying companies but will also highlight ESG improvements and positive performance as companies develop.
  • Importantly, the process will enable investment funds to demonstrate the positive results of their investments to their underlying investors and stakeholders which can, in turn, lead to further funding.
  • It is imperative that any ESG Rating is seen to be credible. Digbee’s solution was developed to address this: it is mining specific, right sized and future looking, based on an independent assessment of a submission that is supported by evidence and approved by the company’s board of directors. It will also address investor frustration at a lack of comparable or meaningful data.
  • For companies at an earlier stage of their ESG journey, recording improvements over time through the Digbee initiative is likely to prove attractive to investment funds as a demonstration of their ESG commitment permitting institutional investment at an earlier stage.
  • The direction of travel is now firmly towards renewable sources of energy and a transition to environmental sensitivity. Historically, regardless of the individual facts, miners have collectively been identified as bad actors in this regard. Digbee engagement and ratings should improve the visibility of the good work being done.
  • For example, installing, wind and solar generation to displace oil and gas should not only cut energy costs but also reduce carbon emissions. Sharing this energy with a local community may further reduce emissions, strengthen community engagement and lead to long-term sustainable benefits well beyond the end of the mine life. Similarly, a mine closure, thoughtfully done, can leave a positive community legacy that will stand a company in good stead when it is seeking new mining opportunities. Having a third party ESG specialist incorporate these initiatives into a rating accepted by investors will help secure the credit such initiatives deserve.

Jamie Strauss, Founder & CEO, Digbee Ltd: “We are delighted with this joint initiative with SP Angel, the number one ranked advisor to the AIM Mining sector*. SP Angel has acknowledged the importance of presenting their corporate clients to institutional investors with credible ESG disclosure as an increasing prerequisite to encourage new investment. We look forward to working together to achieve a more sustainable mining industry that is recognised for its positive actions ”

John Meyer, Mining Analyst & Partner at SP Angel “Working with Jamie Strauss and Digbee will help prepare our corporate clients for ESG-orientated investment. Mining, exploration, and development companies contribute much to local communities which combined with the potential benefits of increasingly sustainable operations is worthy of recognition. Quantifying the benefits, improvements and legacies of these operations should act a catalyst to further improvement to the benefit of all stakeholders.

No.1 in Copper: “The winner of the 2020 Fastmarkets Apex contest for copper was the team at SP Angel comprising John Meyer, Sergey Raevskiy and Simon Beardsmore, with an accuracy score of 93.8%”

No1. In Gold: “SP Angel’s trio took the top spot for the gold price prediction throughout the year, with an accuracy score of 97.59%”

The SP Angel team also ranked 1st in Palladium, 3rd in Tin and 5th in Silver in the fourth quarter of 2020

Analysts

John Meyer – John.Meyer@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0490

Simon Beardsmore – Simon.Beardsmore@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0484

Sergey Raevskiy –Sergey.Raevskiy@spangel.co.uk - 0203 470 0474

Joe Rowbottom – Joe.Rowbottom@spangel.co.uk - 0203 470 0486

Sales

Richard Parlons –Richard.Parlons@spangel.co.uk - 0203 470 0472

Abigail Wayne – Abigail.Wayne@spangel.co.uk - 0203 470 0534

Rob Rees – Rob.Rees@spangel.co.uk - 0203 470 0535

Grant Barker – Grant.Barker@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0471

SP Angel

Prince Frederick House

35-39 Maddox Street London

W1S 2PP

*SP Angel are the No1 integrated nomad and broker by number of mining brokerage clients on AIM according to the AIM Advisers Ranking Guide (joint brokerships excluded)

+SP Angel employees may have previously held, or currently hold, shares in the companies mentioned in this note.

Sources of commodity prices

Gold, Platinum, Palladium, Silver - BGNL (Bloomberg Generic Composite rate, London)

Gold ETFs, Steel - Bloomberg

Copper, Aluminium, Nickel, Zinc, Lead, Tin, Cobalt - LME

Oil Brent - ICE

Natural Gas, Uranium, Iron Ore - NYMEX

Thermal Coal - Bloomberg OTC Composite

Coking Coal - SSY

RRE - Steelhome

Lithium Carbonate, Ferro Vanadium, Tungsten, Spodumene, Ferro-Manganese, Graphite - Asian Metal

DISCLAIMER

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SPA, its partners, officers and/or employees may own or have positions in any investment(s) mentioned herein or related thereto and may, from time to time add to, or dispose of, any such investment(s).

SPA is registered in England and Wales with company number OC317049. The registered office address is Prince Frederick House, 35-39 Maddox Street, London W1S 2PP. SPA is authorised and regulated by the UK Financial Conduct Authority and is a Member of the London Stock Exchange plc.

MiFID II - Based on our analysis we have concluded that this note may be received free of charge by any person subject to the new MiFID II rules on research unbundling pursuant to the exemptions within Article 12(3) of the MiFID II Delegated Directive and FCA COBS Rule 2.3A.19.

A full analysis is available on our website here http://www.spangel.co.uk/legal-and-regulatory-notices.html. If you have any queries, feel free to contact our Compliance Officer, Tim Jenkins (tim.jenkins@spangel.co.uk).

SPA research ratings – Based on a time horizon of 12 months: Buy = Expected return of more than 15%, Hold = Expected return between -15% and +15%, Sell = Expected return of less than 15%

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