SP Angel . Morning View . Thursday 17 02 22
Gold moves closer to $1,900/oz on renewed Russia Ukraine conflict concerns
MiFID II exempt information – see disclaimer below
PRIVATE – financing for advanced copper exploration in Zambia
We are raising funds for a copper exploration company with three advanced prospective license areas in Zambia - all near producing mines or active exploration programs by majors.
The company has a joint venture with one major mining company and is working in cooperation with another major copper miner.
Assays close to a historic copper mine show 15.8% copper and 0.57g/t gold in an artisanal pit. The company plan to IPO later this year
*SP Angel’s role is limited to making introductions and interested parties should be aware that investment in a private company can present certain risks not present in listed companies (e.g. limited or no liquidity and no rules compelling disclosure of information to investors). This offer is open to professional investors only and is not offered to retail investors.
Ariana Resources (Ariana Resources PLC (AIM:AAU)) – Preliminary drilling results confirm gold component to Klirou mineralisation
Cora Gold (Cora Gold Ltd (AIM:CORA)) – 7,000m Sanankoro infill and step out drilling launched
Greatland Gold (Greatland Gold PLC (AIM:GGP, OTC:GRLGF)) – Highlighting exploration and infill drilling progress at Havieron
Resolute Mining (Resolute Mining Limited (ASX:RSG, LSE:RSG)) – Updated MRE increases M&I contained Au by 40% at Tabakoroni
Umicore (LON:UMI) – Results highlight strong performance in automotive, fuel cells and stationary catalysts
IGTV: Are commodities becoming weaponised? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jCoPpdNPMpQ
IG Outlook 2022, China new year, winter Olympics may see metals prices soften: (12/01/2022): https://youtu.be/vNqDh74zW5I
VOX Markets: 10/02/22: https://audioboom.com/posts/8028992-john-meyer-talks-about-copper-gold-plus-atlantic-lithium-bluejay-empire-metals-rainbow-rare
*SP Angel almost invariably acts as nomad or broker or nomad and broker to companies mentioned in the above videos and podcasts.
We speak more about these companies as we have a good understanding of their business and can talk with a greater degree of confidence. As ever, however, it should be noted that our views do not take into account the circumstances and needs of any particular investor or investor type. So enjoy the talks, but please do your own research, including other companies not mentioned by us but operating in the same areas, and get professional advice where appropriate.
Risk sentiment weakens this morning on reports from Ukrainian military and Russia supported rebels of open fire in the east of Ukraine.
Rebels say Ukraine fired mortars on separatist territory in breach of ceasefire.
Ukraine military reported that separatists fired on village in Luhansk region.
Previously, the US argued that there are doubts to claims that Russia withdrew troops from the border and suspected Moscow has increased its presence by as many as 7,000 troops.
The rouble resumed its fall against the US$ currently trading above the 76.2 level while RTS Index, US$ denominated Russian equity market gauge, is down 3.3%.
Gold regains upwards momentum on less aggressive Fed update and Ukraine-Russia escalation
Gold up 1% to $1,876/oz, hitting its June 2021 highs touched on Tuesday.
The metal retreated yesterday on reports of de-escalation between Russia and Ukraine.
Claims of a Ukraine mortar strike on Russian-backed separatists have stoked concerns of an imminent reaction from Putin, encouraging safe haven demand for gold. (Aljazeera)
Geopolitical tensions add to the market reducing its anticipation of a 50bp rate hike by the Fed in March following the release of the FOMC minutes.
10-year Treasury yields have fallen on the less hawkish Fed update, boosting gold’s appeal.
The dollar has also been on the decline since Monday, supporting gold.
Copper slides as concerns over Russia-Ukraine tensions resurface
Copper slid 0.4% to $9,965/t having broken through the key $10,000/t mark yesterday.
The metal had been bolstered by renewed optimism over Russia-Ukraine conflict but suggestions that Putin’s troop withdrawals were ‘false’ limited any further upward momentum.
Analysts expect further metals volatility as the situation develops.
Dow Jones Industrials -0.16% at 34,934
Nikkei 225 -0.83% at 27,233
HK Hang Seng +0.03% at 24,727
Shanghai Composite +0.06% at 3,468
Economics
US retail sales jump in January as Omicron concerns subsided
Retail Sales (%mom): 3.8 v -2.5 (revised from -1.9) in December and 2.0 est.
Retail Sales ex Auto and Gas (%mom): 3.8 v -3.2 (revised from -2.5) in December and 1.0 est.
Industrial Production (%mom): 1.4 v -0.1 in December and 0.5 est.
The move is the sharpest rise since March 2021 as liquidity was being injected through fiscal stimulus cheques.
Retail spending fell 2.5% in December mom.
A ramp up in spending was most visible in cars, furniture and building materials.
Restaurant and bar takings fell as Covid restrictions remained in place.
Eight of 13 retail categories registered an increase.
Receipts at restaurants and bars fell 0.9%mom reflecting the effect of continuing virus restrictions.
The data comes as the Michigan consumer sentiment index hits its lowest in a decade, reflecting American concerns of rising prices.
The Fed is looking to hike rates in March, with a range between 4 and 7 25bp hikes expected to help soothe inflation.
Chinese provincial growth plans point to major surge in infrastructure spending
20/31 provincial governments have announced growth targets for fixed asset investment. (Caixin)
The primary driver behind this will be government-backed infrastructure investment.
2021 saw Beijing encourage local governments to limit infrastructure spending as consumption surged, private-sector investment jumped and exports grow rapidly.
It is expected that local governments to ramp up spending to offset growth lost from the private developer sector which has been hit hard by the Beijing leverage intervention.
Analysts are unsure as to whether the ramp up in government-backed projects will balance the offset in demand for commodities and raw materials from the private sector.
Common prosperity – officials warned not to over-promising on social welfare
The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) has warned local authorities against over-promising on social welfare (SCMP).
Authorities are advised to focus on essential services such as education, housing, medical and elderly care.
Officials are warned not to be overambitious with regard to the implementation of ‘common prosperity’.
In July the Zhejiang authority set a target for 80% of households to have annual disposable income of ~ CNY100,000- 500,000 with 45% at CNY200,000-600,000.
HK – Is HK losing control of Covid as Omicron sweeps through the island
HK reports 30,955 cases of coronavirus as of yesterday (Worldometers)
The island reported >6,300 new confirmed cases earlier today.
Officials have booked 10,000 hotel rooms and 1,000 forces staff for quarantine for travellers.
Chilean mining giant Codelco to begin lithium exploration in March
State-owned Chilean mining firm Codelco will begin lithium exploration in the Salar de Maricunga next month.
Codelco expects drilling to last 10 months and is hopeful of Maricunga’s potential for high-grade lithium deposits.
The salt flat is less than 5% of Chile’s Salar de Atacama.
Japan – The government lowered its economic outlook for the first time in fie months on renewed restrictions to counter the spread of Omicron, Bloomberg writes.
The current assessment was downgraded on weaker consumer spending and housing construction, although, Japan was more optimistic on business investment highlighting hopes for an onset of a recovery over the longer term.
Separately, exports growth cooled further in January amid the spread of Omicron while imports remained elevated on high energy prices.
Auto exports were down 1% reflecting industry’s challenges with sourcing components.
Interestingly, overseas shipments to China were down 5.4%yoy, marking the first drop since summer 2020, although, the data may be slightly skewed by the timing of Lunar New Year holidays.
The value of fuel imports jumped more than 80%.
Exports (%yoy): 9.6 v 17.5 in December and 17.1 est.
Imports (%yoy): 39.6 v 41.1 in December and 37.1 est.
Currencies
US$1.1380/eur vs 1.1377/eur yesterday. Yen 115.32/$ vs 115.64/$. SAr 15.014/$ vs 15.087/$. $1.359/gbp vs $1.356/gbp. 0.721/aud vs 0.717/aud. CNY 6.334/$ vs 6.336/$.
Commodity News
Precious metals:
Gold US$1,876/oz vs US$1,856/oz yesterday
Gold ETFs 99.6moz vs US$99.5moz yesterday
Platinum US$1,078/oz vs US$1,029/oz yesterday
Palladium US$2,312/oz vs US$2,281/oz yesterday
Silver US$23.58/oz vs US$23.45/oz yesterday
Rhodium US$18,100/oz vs US$18,100/oz yesterday
Base metals:
Copper US$ 9,965/t vs US$10,024/t yesterday
Aluminium US$ 3,234/t vs US$3,209/t yesterday
Nickel US$ 23,455/t vs US$23,435/t yesterday
Zinc US$ 3,575/t vs US$3,594/t yesterday
Lead US$ 2,333/t vs US$2,318/t yesterday
Tin US$ 43,675/t vs US$43,600/t yesterday
Energy:
Oil US$94.2/bbl vs US$93.8/bbl yesterday
An upward revision in historical oil demand by the International Energy Agency in its monthly report points to a tighter global market
Prices are heading towards US$100/bbl this quarter as fuel demand recovers from the pandemic, in a rally that has driven up energy costs worldwide, forcing some businesses to cut output and draining cash from consumers
Russia’s confirmation of a partial pullback in troops from Ukraine's borders was met with scepticism, as US President Joe Biden warned that more than 150,000 Russian troops were still massed near the borders
While the Ukraine crisis simmered, the US Labour Department reported producer prices increased by the most in eight months in January, a reminder that high inflation could persist through much of this year
The market awaits weekly US oil inventories data from the Energy Information Administration later today
US crude and distillates inventories are expected to have fallen by 1.5MMbbls-1.6MMbbls last week according to consensus estimates
Data from the American Petroleum Institute showed a drop in crude, gasoline and distillate stocks last week
Elsewhere, the US and Iran are currently in discussions to revive a nuclear deal, which resumed this week after a 10-day break
A deal could see the lifting of sanctions on Iranian oil and ease global supply tightness
Tight supply was seen in US crude oil stockpiles which unexpectedly fell 4.8MMbbls in the week to 4 February to 410.4MMbbls as overall refined product demand reached an all-time record
This compares with a consensus forecast of a 369kbbl rise
OPEC has forecasted that world oil demand might rise even more steeply this year
The group has forecast an increase of 4.15MMbopd this year, as the global economy posts a strong recovery from the pandemic
Natural Gas US$4.685/mmbtu vs US$4.492/mmbtu yesterday
US natural gas futures saw their March contract climb 41 cents, or 9.5%, to settle at US$4.63/mmbtu yesterday, the highest front-month contract finish in almost three weeks
UK Natural Gas prices have risen to 3.3% to £1.87/therm, after weeks of stagnation, while the Dutch TTF Futures benchmark has increased a similar 3% to €78.50/MwH
Prices spiked after data from German network operator Gascade showed that flows on the Yamal-Europe pipeline were suspended
Flows had moved eastwards towards Russia since 21 December, piling further pressure on European supplies
While flows have now stopped moving away from Europe, the pause has dashed last night’s hopes of more exports into the continent
Gazprom booked transit capacity for eight hours on Tuesday evening, and the pipeline even recorded an hour of western flows, before coming to a standstill in both directions
Uranium UXC US$44.05/lb vs $44.05/lb yesterday
Bulk:
Iron ore 62% Fe spot (cfr Tianjin) US$140.2/t vs US$137.5/t
Chinese steel rebar 25mm US$773.4/t vs US$774.8/t - Japan’s Nippon Steel calls on $17bn of government subsidies to meet net-zero targets
Nippon Steel says that the government must provide at least 2 trillion yen ($17.3bn) in subsidies over the next 30 years to meet net zero targets and stay competitive against rivals.
The company’s CEO says that funding is required so it can compete with China which already produces half of the world’s steel and benefits from massive subsidies.
So far, the Japanese gov has only earmarked 193bn yen over 10 years from its 2 trillion-yen green fund for R&D in the net-zero steel space.
The steel industry is responsible for about 15% of carbon emissions in both Japan and China, and 7% of global emissions.
Nippon has laid out a plan to cut 30% of emissions by 2030 before reaching net-zero in 2050.
Bloomberg estimate that the global steel industry must spend $215bn to $278bn in order to meet climate goals.
Thermal coal (1st year forward cif ARA) US$109.8/t vs US$115.0/t
Thermal coal swap Australia FOB US$212.0/t vs US$215.0/t
Coking coal swap Australia FOB US$390.0/t vs US$388.0/t
Other:
Cobalt LME 3m US$71,000/t vs US$71,000/t
NdPr Rare Earth Oxide (China) US$173,660/t vs US$173,513/t
Lithium carbonate 99% (China) US$65,912/t vs US$64,436/t
China Spodumene Li2O 5%min CIF US$2,710/t vs US$2,710/t
Ferro-Manganese European Mn78% min US$1,815/t vs US$1,815/t
China Tungsten APT 88.5% FOB US$333/t vs US$333/t
China Graphite Flake -194 FOB US$805/t vs US$805/t
Europe Vanadium Pentoxide 98% 10.6/lb vs US$10.5/lb
Europe Ferro-Vanadium 80% 41.75/kg vs US$41.25/kg
China Ilmenite Concentrate TiO2 US$394/t vs US$394/t
Spot CO2 Emissions EUA Price US$101.7/t vs US$103.4/t
Brazil Potash CFR Granular Spot US$815/t vs US$815/t
Battery News
Hydrogen – new process to produce hydrogen from cobalt and manganese
The RIKEN Center for Sustainable Resource Science (CSRS) in Japan has developed a new process for the production of hydrogen without the use of PGMs
MingYang to deploy two 16.6MW wind turbines
China’s MingYang Smart Energy plans to deploy two wind turbines with an individual capacity of 16.6 MW at the MingYang Yangjiang Qingzhou Four offshore wind farm in the South China Sea.
The two turbines will be installed at the 505.2MW wind farm, which will also feature 59 8MW turbines.
MingYang announced the MySE 16.0-242 model, which will become the world’s most powerful wind turbine, in August 2021.
Audi given approval for $3.3bn EV joint venture in China
Audi and Chinese state-owned partner FAW Group have received approval from Chinese authorities to start construction on their $3.3bn EV manufacturing plant, according to a government notice.
The plant is expected to start production in December 2024 and have the capacity to manufacture 150,000 cars a year – the venture plans to manufacture 3 EV models, including the Audi e-tron SUV.
Audi’s parent company, Volkswagen, are hoping to increase EV production in China to compete with Tesla – VW are hoping to reach 1m EVs per year by end 2023.
Audi signed an MoU with FAW in October 2020 to jointly produce premium EVs in China.
Company News
Ariana Resources (Ariana Resources PLC (AIM:AAU)) 3.45p, Mkt Cap £38m – Preliminary drilling results confirm gold component to Klirou mineralisation
Ariana Resources reports that recent drilling at the Klirou prospect in Cyprus by its 50% owned Venus Minerals has shown that gold is “a significant component of the Klirou deposit”.
The drilling, which was completed during May and June 2021,comprised 4 inclined drill holes totaling 910m and tested the Klirou East area to investigate “the continuity of mineralisation between multiple historic holes”.
Among the results highlighted today are:
A 22m wide intersection averaging 0.72g/t gold, 0.38% copper and 1.64% zinc from a depth of 135m in hole VMD-015, including an 8m long section averaging 1.53g/t gold, 0.81% copper and 3.28% zinc; and
A 16m wide intersection averaging 0.73g/t gold and 0.34% copper from a depth of 128m in hole VMD-014 including a 2m wide intersection averaging 4.28g/t gold, 2.85% copper and 1.77% zinc from a depth of 124m; and
A 14m wide intersection averaging 0.64g/t gold and 0.34% zinc from a depth of 114m in hole VMD-013
Ariana Resources explains that the “results provide a new and more detailed understanding of the style and structural controls of VMS mineralisation at Klirou. It is now understood that Klirou has very similar metal zonation as is characteristic at the Kokkinoyia Sector … [and that] …Gold is clearly a major component of the mineralisation system, and is generally present throughout the deposit including gold-only areas, but mostly noted in higher concentrations in association with zinc”.
The company also says that the “Copper is mostly identified in lenses of structurally-controlled massive-to-strongly disseminated sulphide zones, which generally contain some low-level gold (0.1-0.7g/t Au). Importantly, the new inclined drilling indicates that most of the mineralisation at Klirou may be controlled by steeply dipping structures, which potentially also explains some of the erratic results encountered in a number of vertically drilled historic holes”.
Managing Director, Dr. Kerim Sener, said that “Follow-up work at Klirou will probably involve a detailed geophysical survey, to help identify extensions to the mineralisation at depth and along strike, prior to a future round of drilling”.
Dr. Sener also confirmed that “Venus is continuing to progress towards its planned IPO in London”.
Conclusion: As Venus Minerals moves towards a planned London IPO, improved geological understanding and encouraging drilling results from Klirou and the company’s other exploration projects in Cyprus helps to raise awareness and potentially to stimulate investor interest.
Cora Gold (Cora Gold Ltd (AIM:CORA)) 8.6p, Mkt Cap £25m – 7,000m Sanankoro infill and step out drilling launched
The Company appointed Capital Drilling and drilling equipment is being mobilised to site for a ~7,000m RC programme.
Drilling is set to start in March and focus on infill drilling as well as new step out holes.
The Sanankoro MRE currently stands at 541koz at 1.33g/t in the Indicated category 269koz at 0.90g/t in the Inferred category.
The Company reports that all deposits at Sanankoro remain open at depth and along strike while MRE is based on only a quarter of 33km strike length of the potential mineralised zones identified in the 2018 Exploration Target.
Drilling is expected to be completed in Q2/22.
DFS works is ongoing with completion remaining on track for H1/22.
Greatland Gold (Greatland Gold PLC (AIM:GGP, OTC:GRLGF)) 13.35p, Mkt Cap £558m – Highlighting exploration and infill drilling progress at Havieron
Greatland Gold references the ASX announcement by its partner in the Haveron project, Newcrest Mining, of Newcrest’s ‘Annual Mineral Resources and Ore Reserves Statement’ which “restates the previously released statement contained within the Stage 1 South East Crescent Pre-Feasibility Study ("PFS"), announced on 12 October 2021”.
We recollect that the October announcement envisaged a stage 1 development of Havieron an initial 2.1mtpa mining rate to extract a 14mt probable reserve grading 3.7g/t gold and 0.54% copper over an initial mine life of 9 years using sub-level open stoping and paste backfill to produce an average of 160,000oz pa of gold and 6,900tpa of copper with total production of 1.4moz of gold and 62,000t of copper at an average all-in sustaining cost of US$643/oz
In today’s announcement, Greatland Gold draws attention to the progress at Havieron since the cut-off date for inclusion in the study of only the drilling completed up to 5th February 2021
Among instances of the evolution of the project, Greatland Gold cites the completion of “90,000 metres of growth drilling targeted to be completed during Newcrest's FY22 to 30 June 2022” which provides potential “for an upgrade of a significant portion of the Inferred Mineral Resource estimate to an Indicated Mineral Resource estimate”.
The company also points out that “Infill drilling of a further 38,088 metres completed since 5 February 2021 to 31 December 2021 within the South East Crescent Zone … [validates both the] … geological and grade continuity of the Mineral Resource estimate” and that deeper drilling beneath the Zone has extended its vertical extent to over 900m.
Greatland Gold also comments that drilling outside of the South East Crescent Zone has “confirmed the potential for high grade mineralisation within the separate Eastern Breccia trending corridor” and that initial drill testing of “new geophysical targets 2km outside of the Havieron system and multiple high grade targets including the Northern Breccia and North West Pod”.
Commenting on the additional exploration opportunities being revealed as the drilling at Havieron progresses, CEO, Shaun Day, said that “Over the last year our belief has strengthened that the PFS only revealed the tip of the iceberg for Havieron's potential and that this world class asset is a globally unique opportunity for bringing a low risk, low capex tier-one gold-copper mine into production”.
The company confirms that completion of the feasibility study is scheduled for the final quarter of 2022.
Conclusion: Greatland Gold highlights the progress at Havieron where continuing drilling has extended the depth and lateral extent of mineralisation and identified additional targets beyond the South East Crescent Zone. The feasibility study remains on course for completion during the December quarter this year and we look forward to reading its conclusions and details of plans for development.
Resolute Mining (Resolute Mining Limited (ASX:RSG, LSE:RSG)) 16.4p, Mkt Cap £178m – Updated MRE increases M&I contained Au by 40% at Tabakoroni
Resolute reports an increased Mineral Resource Estimate for its Tabakoroni project in Mali.
The updated MRE is as follows:
Measured and Indicated - 9.2mt at 4.4 g/t for 1.3Moz Au
Inferred – 2.8mt at 3.1 g/t for 281koz Au
The updated MRE for Tabakoroni was completed in December 2021 using wireframe constrained ordinary kriged methodology in line with previous estimates, at a cut-off grade of 1 g/t Au.
Infill and expansion drilling undertaken in 2021 contributed to the increased MRE with the majority of the southern high-grade zone being upgraded to indicated category.
Drill highlights since the completion of the previous MRE estimate include:
TADD841 - 8m @ 28g/t from 383m
TADD833 - 18m @ 11.20g/t from 317m
TADD968 - 18m @ 36.77g/t from 416m
TADD984 - 4m @ 27.65g/t from 159m
TADD987 - 10m @ 10.86g/t from 341m
Using the principals of Reasonable Prospects of Eventual Economic Extraction (RPEEE) the Global Mineral Resource was restricted by using both an open pit optimisation and a stope shape optimisation for material below the open pit shell – with both optimisations completed at a US$2,000/oz gold price.
The mineralisation at Tabakoroni remains open both along strike and at depth and continued exploration success is expected to expand Mineral Resources.
Umicore (LON:UMI) €36.72, Mkt cap €9bn – Results highlight strong performance in automotive, fuel cells and stationary catalysts
Umicore shifts focus to nickel as automakers lose lust for cobalt
Umicore reported strong sales and EBIT growth yesterday driven by strong performance across all business units
Strong growth in EU sales volumes were in line with market growth
EV NMC cathode materials sales volumes grew
Sales into China were below market growth on an unfavourable customer and platform mix as well as chemistry mix relating to LFP battery manufacturing.
Demand was strong for Cobalt following a severe Covid-19 slump as battery manufacturing rises along with strong demand for nickel chemicals, tool materials and cobalt
Outlook:
Looking into Battery Recycling as next step
Grow EV cathode material sales volumes in 2022
Customers cutting back demand projections for mid-nickel cathode material applications – replace
Auto Industry: 2021 Global car production still -16% below pre-Covid levels of 2019 with as severe decline in car production in 2H21 due to a shortage of semiconductor chips.
High demand for homogenous catalysts
Fuel cell & Stationary Catalysts: Umicore doubled PEM fuel cell catalyst sales volumes rising to a 40% market share in mobility applications
Strong demand from existing customers and some new customer wins in China
Catalysis revenue: Record levels with strong demand for Chinese light-duty gasoline markets/heavy-duty diesel catalysts
Sales volumes of fuel cell catalysts up
Energy and Surface Tech: Increase in sales – higher volumes of EV cathode material/rechargeable battery material sales
Extraordinarily strong contribution of the Cobalt/Speciality Materials
Recycling: Record revenues and earnings – above the previous record levels of 2020
Cathode materials: now targeting a doubling of capacity to 120GWh in 2024 (currently 65GWh)
focus on High nickel applications
Looking at expanding to North America capacity expansion (Not included)
No.1 in Copper: “The winner of the 2020 Fastmarkets Apex contest for copper was the team at SP Angel comprising John Meyer, Sergey Raevskiy and Simon Beardsmore, with an accuracy score of 93.8%”
No1. In Gold: “SP Angel’s trio took the top spot for the gold price prediction throughout the year, with an accuracy score of 97.59%”
The SP Angel team also ranked 1st in Palladium, 3rd in Tin and 5th in Silver in the fourth quarter of 2020
Analysts
John Meyer – John.Meyer@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0490
Simon Beardsmore – Simon.Beardsmore@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0484
Sergey Raevskiy –Sergey.Raevskiy@spangel.co.uk - 0203 470 0474
Joe Rowbottom – Joe.Rowbottom@spangel.co.uk - 0203 470 0486
Sales
Richard Parlons –Richard.Parlons@spangel.co.uk - 0203 470 0472
Abigail Wayne – Abigail.Wayne@spangel.co.uk - 0203 470 0534
Rob Rees – Rob.Rees@spangel.co.uk - 0203 470 0535
Grant Barker – Grant.Barker@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0471
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Sources of commodity prices
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BGNL (Bloomberg Generic Composite rate, London)
Gold ETFs, Steel
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Copper, Aluminium, Nickel, Zinc, Lead, Tin, Cobalt
LME
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ICE
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NYMEX
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