Comment of the Day
Video commentary for January 21st 2022
Bitcoin billionaire Mike Novogratz says plunging crypto will have a hard time rallying until stocks find a base
This note from Bloomberg may be of interest to subscribers. Here is a section:
Billionaire investor Mike Novogratz has said cryptocurrencies will struggle to pull out of their sell-off if stocks keep falling, as he urged investors not to buy the dip.
Prices for bitcoin, ether and other digital currencies have fallen sharply across the board as they track Wall Street's rout in tech stocks, driven by pressure from rising bond yields.
"Crypto will have a hard time rallying until stocks find a base," Novogratz, CEO of investment company Galaxy Digital (TSX-V:GLXY), tweeted late Thursday.
Novogratz pointed to the sharp fall in the Russell index, which is down almost 10% year to date, saying there are 1.2 trillion bad equity longs above the market.
"This is now a bear market," he said, adding: "Sell rallies. Don't buy dips."
My view - Doubts about whether bitcoin is a risk asset or a safe haven have been dispelled over night as bitcoin followed the stock market to new lows. That’s an important distinction because the primary comparison between bitcoin and gold over the last couple of years is they are both long-term stores of value. Recent action suggests that belief is wrong.
Eoin’s personal portfolio shorts initiated
One of the questions subscribers as most often is how to find details of my open traders. To make it easier I will simply repost the latest summary daily until there is a change.
Email of the day on salesmanship
I’ve always marvelled at the salesmanship of Friedland since I saw him in Tokyo quite a few years ago. But there is one better. Andrew Forrest. He may not have Friedland’s savoir faire or finesse but I’m inclined to back him in a two-horse race (there are no other starters).
Btw I’m one of no doubt many who concur with the positive emails you receive recently.
My view - Thank you for your kind words and this email which may be of interest to the Collective. Both of the mining sector’s most successful salesmen are promoting visions of the future that assume the energy transition is inevitable. They take different approaches in how best to profit from it.
Brazil Stocks Buck S&P 500 Losses, Set for Second Weekly Gain
This article for Bloomberg may be of interest to subscribers. Here is a section:
• An opinion poll released by Poder360 showed leftist former President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva has 42% of voter intentions for the October presidential election, versus 28% for incumbent Bolsonaro and 8% for former judge Sergio Moro
• Lula has been hinting at alliances with centrist parties, but it’s still unclear for investors what his economic program would look like and whether any kind of fiscal adjustments would be conducted
• President Jair Bolsonaro has discussed with lawmakers a bill aimed at reducing fuel and electricity prices, O Globo (AIM:GBO) reported, citing unnamed sources
My view - Brazil’s short-term interest rates have risen from 2% to 9.25% since March 2021. The fact that still represents a negative real interest rate highlights just how inflation has been. Investors appear to be giving the benefit of the doubt to the argument inflationary pressures are close to peaking as the Real bounces.
The Chart Seminar 2022
With global vaccination rates rising, the prospect of anti-COVID pills on the horizon and the promise of travel restrictions being dropped, it is time to start thinking about venues for The Chart Seminar in 2022.
Please drop sarah@fullertreacymoney.com a line if you would be interested in attending an event next year, as well as your preferred location.
At present I am looking at a late May date for a London seminar and I am open to other times and locations subject to demand.