SP Angel . Morning View . Wednesday 15 12 21
Metals prices to spike in Q1 as Omicron disrupts mine supply
AfriTin Mining (AfriTin Mining Ltd (AIM:ATM)) – Q3/21: strong production, lower AISC and higher realised tin prices
Atlantic Lithium* (Atlantic Lithium Limited (AIM:ALL)) (Formerly IronRidge* IRR LN) – Latest drill results provide highest grade to date at Ewoyaa
Hummingbird Resources (Hummingbird Resources PLC (LSE:HUM)) – Guidance revised down to 84-89koz for 2021
Power Metal Resources* (Power Metal Resources PLC (AIM:POW)) – New Ballarat Update
Savannah Resources* (Savannah Resources PLC (AIM:SAV, ETR:SAV, OTC:SAVNF)) – BUY, Target 17.9p – Proposed regional refineries bring local lithium deposits in the spotlight
SolGold* (SolGold PLC (LSE:SOLG, TSX:SOLG, OTC:SLGGF)) – Maiden resource on Cacharposa copper-gold porphyry at the Porvenir project
VOX Markets: 08/12/21: https://audioboom.com/posts/7993202- china-economy-plus-bluejay-centamin-cornish-metals
IGTV: China slows down but invests heavily in renewable capacity: https://youtu.be/d6PtLxNgtPc
*SP Angel almost invariably acts as nomad or broker or nomad and broker to companies mentioned in the above videos and podcasts.
We speak more about these companies as we have a good understanding of their business and can talk with a greater degree of confidence. As ever, however, it should be noted that our views do not take into account the circumstances and needs of any particular investor or investor type. So enjoy the talks, but please do your own research, including other companies not mentioned by us but operating in the same areas, and get professional advice where appropriate.
Omicron looks set to cause significant disruption to supply chains and mine production
We expect the, highly-transmissible, Omicron virus to significantly disrupt supply chains through Q1 next year.
Each new dominant variant passes faster and more effectively than the last by their very definition with Omicron as the latest and most complex variant to take over
While Omicron may prove to be a milder and less deadly virus it is still making people sick and it still takes time / weeks to recover (long covid)
Its rapid spread means it will almost certainly hit significant numbers of workers in Q1 and many will require days to weeks off to recover.
While we are not able to assess the number of sick days which will be created by Omicron in a population we can assume its impact will be significant.
Add to this, ongoing under capacity in lorry drivers etc… and we have a recipe for significant supply-chain disruption.
We expect ongoing mine disruption to further hit metals production exacerbating supply / demand deficits and lowering already low LME and SHFE warehouse stock levels.
LME exchange logistics delays are already forcing consumers increasingly into spot markets for metals.
The situation suggests further spikes in spot metals prices may be a feature of the new year assuming China does not slow much further.
In the meantime, commodity traders have scaled back their positions / risk pending potential interest rate rises and China slowing
We see the key base and industrial metals as vulnerable to price spikes, particularly; copper, nickel, zinc, tin, lithium (spodumene), cobalt and vanadium
China battery materials producer declares force majeure on Covid outbreak
Greatpower has declared force majeure on deliveries of cobalt sulphate following a Covid outbreak at its Zhejiang unit. (Reuters)
The Shaoxing unit has a monthly capacity of 3,000t of cobalt sulphate production.
Covid has been recognised as a force majeure event.
177 cases have been recorded in Zhejiang Dec.6-12 causing over 12 companies to halt production.
Analysts expect EV battery makers to be hit by price rises and shortages.
Is an emerging market crisis coming?
Covid is a seismic event in markets and seismic events cause houses of cards to fall
The Asian Crisis was prompted by lesser events than Covid, therefore maybe we should expect further fallout as the current high tide of liquidity ebbs away.
Copper slides as traders wait for Fed signal
Copper prices down 0.7% to a month low of $9,340/t.
Analysts expect traders to limit their exposure to the metal before the Fed meets this afternoon to revise its asset-purchasing taper.
Shanghai copper down 1.3% as China’s construction woes weigh on the metal.
LME on-warrant stocks hit their highest levels in 2 months at 82,850t.
Nickel prices fall to one-month low as China steelmakers commit to production cuts
Nickel prices fell to the lowest level in almost a month as six stainless steel mills including Tsingshan Holding Group vowed to reduce combined production by over 450,000t in the next three months, according to Mysteel.
Steel production in China has already been declining, falling to 3.33mt in October - the lowest in 19 months.
Metals markets in China have been struggling as China’s economy lagged in November amid a worsening property slump and various covid-19 outbreaks.
The China Metallurgical Industry Planning and Research Institute said on Wednesday that the country’s steel demand was on track to be down 4.7% to 954mt in 2021 and would fall further to 947mt in 2022.
Nickel prices on the LME eased 0.6% this morning to $19,365/t – the lowest since November 18th.
Dow Jones Industrials -0.30% at 35,544
Nikkei 225 +0.10% at 28,460
HK Hang Seng -0.96% at 23,409
Shanghai Composite -0.38% at 3,648
Economics
China’s economic activity slows on weak consumption and property sector woes
Chinese retail sales up 3.9% (4.6% est.) vs Nov. 2020 – down from the 4.9% increase in October.
Industrial production up 3.8% (3.6% est.) vs Nov. 2020 – up from 3.5% growth in October.
Production has been hit by energy shortages.
China’s property prices have marked their sharpest downturn since Feb. 2015.
Home prices have fallen for a 3rd straight month amid falling demand, placing further pressure on Chinese developers. (SCMP)
Chinese fixed-asset investment up 5.2% Jan-Nov – down from 6.1% over the Jan-Oct. period.
New-construction starts, a key commodity demand driver, fell 9.1% over Jan-Nov. period y-o-y, a sharp rise from the 7.7% decline Jan-Oct. (WSJ)
China’s unemployment rate up to 5% in Nov. vs 5.9% in Oct.
Urban jobless rate for 16-24 yos at 14.3%.
China to slash import tariffs on 954 products for 2022
China will reduce tariffs on medical equipment, winter Olympics products and vehicle parts used for reducing emissions. (Reuters)
The number of products on the temporary lower tariff rate list will rise from 883 products in 2021.
Favourable rates will be removed for lead-acid battery parts and blister copper tariffs will be raised.
Favourable exemptions will be made to tariffs from undeveloped countries with diplomatic ties to China. (Finance Ministry)
The Ministry sees the move as part Beijing’s efforts to bolster China’s supply chain.
US House votes to increase debt ceiling by $2.5tn
The Senate voted 50-49 to approve the bill followed by approval in the House at 221-209.
The Treasury had warned it could default on its obligations by today if the limit had not been raised.
US - PPI rose 0.8% in November vs 0.6% in October and 9.6% yoy in November vs 8.6% yoy in October
US producer prices soar in November as Fed meets today
US producer-price index up 9.6% in Nov. vs Nov. 2020 – highest since records began in 2010.
The core PPI, excluding food and energy, up 7.7% y-o-y.
The data suggests CPI prices will stay elevated through 2022.
The US services index rose 0.7% in Nov. vs 0.2% in Oct as hospitality and airfares picked up.
UK inflation rises to decade high
UK inflation hit 5.1% in Nov.
Economists had predicted a 4.8% rise from October’s 4.2% level.
The IMF has warned the BoE to avoid ‘inaction bias’ and hike interest rates to prevent long-lasting inflation.
The economy has seen broad price pressures despite major increases stemming from used car and petrol costs.
EU - Industrial production rose 1.1% in October vs 0.2% in September and 3.3% yoy in October vs 5.1% yoy in September
Australia - NAB business confidence index slipped to 12 in November vs 20 in October
India - Wholesale price index rose 14.2% yoy in November vs 12.5% in October
South Africa – Q3 GDP rose 7% vs 1.9% in Q1
UK - Three month rolling unemployment rate was 4.2% in October vs 4.3% in September
South African court orders ex-President Zuma to return to prison
A court in South Africa has ruled Jacob Zuma’s medical parole ‘unlawful’.
Zuma’s jailing triggered a week of looting and violence in the east of South Africa in July.
The decision has the potential to cause further social unrest in the country.
Mongolia – Rio Tinto’s cancellation of US$2.3bn of state debt built up in the project presents questions over how the finances of the giant Oyu Tolgoi copper mine are run.
Question is, will this be a warning to other miners looking to develop projects in Mongolia or was the Oyu Tolgoi operating company overcharging for their expertise and services.
Currencies
US$1.1273/eur vs 1.1270/eur yesterday. Yen 113.74/$ vs 113.72/$. SAr 16.137/$ vs 16.013/$. $1.327/gbp vs $1.321/gbp. 0.713/aud vs 0.713/aud. CNY 6.364/$ vs 6.363/$.
Commodity News
Precious metals:
Gold US$1,769/oz vs US$1,784/oz yesterday
Gold ETFs 98.2moz vs US$98.2moz yesterday
Platinum US$919/oz vs US$934/oz yesterday
Palladium US$1,616/oz vs US$1,683/oz yesterday
Silver US$21.94/oz vs US$22.24/oz yesterday
Rhodium US$14,000/oz vs US$14,000/oz yesterday
Base metals:
Copper US$ 9,342/t vs US$9,454/t yesterday
Aluminium US$ 2,609/t vs US$2,652/t yesterday
Nickel US$ 19,350/t vs US$19,585/t yesterday
Zinc US$ 3,241/t vs US$3,339/t yesterday
Lead US$ 2,256/t vs US$2,290/t yesterday
Tin US$ 38,520/t v US$39,145/t yesterday
Energy:
Oil US$73.2/bbl vs US$74.6/bbl yesterday
Despite small gains in early trading today, oil futures are trading lower than yesterday after the International Energy Agency (IEA) said the Omicron coronavirus variant is set to dent global demand recovery
US data showing producer prices at 11-year highs reinforced market expectations of faster stimulus tapering by the Federal Reserve, which meets this week
This supported the dollar and weighed on oil, which typically move inversely
The dollar stayed near one-week highs on Tuesday versus a basket of major currencies, bolstered by the producer prices data
The WHO has confirmed that the Omicron variant was spreading at an "unprecedented" rate, prompting overall markets to edge lower
Governments around the world, including most recently UK and Norway, have tightened restrictions to stop the spread of the variant
The IEA lowered its forecast for oil demand this year and the next by 100,000bopd each, mostly because of the expected dent to jet fuel use from new travel curbs
Natural Gas US$3.817/mmbtu vs US$3.803/mmbtu yesterday
A combination of Russia's inactive Nord Stream 2 pipeline and cooler weather forecast through the end of December has led to another rally in European natural gas futures
German power prices have increased to a record high while French power prices jumped to a decade high
Concerns that Nord Stream 2 pipeline will not operate this winter season comes as the new German chancellor Olof Scholz said his government would do everything possible to make sure natgas flows continue through Ukraine and not the latest Russian to German undersea pipeline
Last month, German energy regulators suspended Nord Stream 2's certification process
The US has also sanctioned companies affiliated with the pipeline's construction
On top of the geopolitical uncertainties, mixed with tight natgas supplies across Europe, some of the lowest in a decade, a new 14-day weather forecast shows cooler than average weather, which will boost natgas demand
Uranium UXC US$44.95/lb vs $45.85/lb yesterday
Bulk:
Iron ore 62% Fe spot (cfr Tianjin) US$114.2/t vs US$115.3/t
Chinese steel rebar 25mm US$758.0/t vs US$757.0/t
Thermal coal (1st year forward cif ARA) US$124.3/t vs US$106.5/t
Thermal coal swap Australia FOB US$169.5/t vs US$165.5/t
Coking coal swap Australia FOB US$328.0/t vs US$324.0/t
Other:
Cobalt LME 3m US$69,815/t vs US$69,815/t
NdPr Rare Earth Oxide (China) US$133,948/t vs US$133,978/t
Lithium carbonate 99% (China) US$32,917/t vs US$32,610/t
China Spodumene Li2O 5%min CIF US$2,360/t vs US$2,340/t
Ferro-Manganese European Mn78% min US$1,866/t vs US$1,865/t
China Tungsten APT 88.5% FOB US$313/t vs US$313/t
China Graphite Flake -194 FOB US$765/t vs US$735/t
Europe Vanadium Pentoxide 98% 8.6/lb vs US$8.4/lb
Europe Ferro-Vanadium 80% 32.55/kg vs US$32.55/kg
China Ilmenite Concentrate TiO2 US$381/t vs US$381/t
Spot CO2 Emissions EUA Price US$92.7/t vs US$95.4/t
Battery News
Teeside could host Europe's largest grid-scale battery
Sembcorp Energy UK (SEUK) has unveiled plans for a 360MW battery energy storage system, located in Teesside.
The proposed project would be built at the Wilton International site on Teesside, alongside the planned 300MW Whitetail Clean Energy gas carbon capture and storage system power plant, which forms part of the region's ambitious proposals to deliver one of the world's first net zero emission industrial hubs.
The 360MW battery would be over three times the current largest operational battery storage system in the UK, the 100MW Shell-owned battery in Minety, Wiltshire.
SEUK currently operates 70MW of batteries, with a further 50MW already in the pipeline and due to be operational in early 2022.
The plans for both this battery portfolio expansion, and the Whitetail Clean Energy power plant align SEUK’s growth with technologies that support a greener future.
SEUK’s total energy portfolio would be expected to total over 1.6GW, with almost 0.5GW being supplied by batteries.
Ford targeting Tesla in US sales
Ford CEO Jim Farley has announced ambitious plans to top Tesla in EV sales in the US.
Ford are currently the 4th place manufacturer for US sales behind Tesla, Volkswagen and GM, with Tesla expecting to control two thirds of sales for this year according to forecaster LMC Automotive.
Farley's plans would see Ford manufacturing rise to 600,000 units per year by 2024 in the US and close the gap on Tesla.
Achieving that will involve doubling capacity at its Dearborn, Michigan, EV factory to build 160,000 electric-F150 Lightning pickups annually, Farley said.
Ford last week stopped taking reservations for the plug-in pickup when they reached 200,000.
LMC predicts Tesla to be selling more than 375,000 EVs in the U.S. in 2024, more than twice what the forecaster expects Ford to be selling by then. LMC predicts GM will be second to Tesla by then, with Ford in third.
Li-Cycle to boost New York EV recycling plant capacity
Li-Cycle plans to boost processing capacity at its Rochester, NY plant by 40% to 35kt pa.
Construction is expected to finish by 2023.
It estimates that 5-10% of EV battery manufacturing waste can be recycled.
Company News
AfriTin Mining (AfriTin Mining Ltd (AIM:ATM)) 5.0p, Mkt Cap £56m – Q3/21: strong production, lower AISC and higher realised tin prices
The Company reported quarterly operational update for Q3/21 running through to Nov/21.
The Uis Tin Mine (Namibia) delivered 220t (+19%qoq) of tin concentrate containing 136t Sn (+20%), beating nameplate production target of 108t Sn.
Stronger production was driven by higher throughput (+17%) and better processed grades (+10%) compensating for a pullback in plant recoveries (-6%).
The plant processed 148.7kt during the quarter at 0.150% Sn.
Higher feed grade compared to the projected LOM grade of 0.138% S nis the result of natural grade variations in the ore body as modelled in the mine plan.
AISC dropped to $23,290/t Sn (-22%) reflecting stronger quarterly production.
The AISC is expected to continue its downward trend driven by the commissioning of the Phase 1 Expansion Project and further process improvements to be implemented over the next 6 months.
Realised tin prices averaged $39,025/t (+14%).
The Company is on track and on budget for the Phase 1 Expansion Project aiming to grow production to 1,200t concentrate (+67% on current capacity of 720t) with commissioning targeted for Q2/22.
Workstreams for an enhanced, large-scale Uis Phase 2 expansion (10,000t concentrate as well as 350,000t of lithium concentrate and 1,000 of tantalum concentrate) are in progress.
Atlantic Lithium* (Atlantic Lithium Limited (AIM:ALL)) 26p, Mkt cap £146m – Latest drill results provide highest grade to date at Ewoyaa
Formerly IronRidge* (LON:IRR)
Atlantic Lithium reports the latest round of drill results at its Ewoyaa Lithium Project in Ghana, where the Company recently announced an updated Scoping Study and increased JORC resource of 21.3Mt @ 1.31% Li2O.
High infill drilling results for diamond drilling and reverse circulation holes at a 0.4% Li2O cut-off include highlights:
GDD0015: 91.6m at 1.6% Li2O from 8m
GDD0039: 67.7m at 1.36% Li2O from 41m
GRC0425: 75m at 1.17% Li2O from 68m
GDD0047: 62m at 1.4% Li2O from 36m
GDD0022: 58.8m at 1.45% Li2O from 34.1m
GRC0428: 66m at 1.26% Li2O from 41m
GRC0426: 64m at 1.28% Li2O from 74m
GDD0014: 52.3m at 1.3% Li2O from 20.4m
GDD0016: 35.7m at 1.83% Li2O from 58.3m
GDD0036: 44.5m at 1.43% Li2O from 36.5m
GDD0044: 37.7m at 1.59% Li2O from 50.3m
GDD0020: 36.5m at 1.64% Li2O from 17m
GRC0454: 33m at 1.67% Li2O from 107m
Atlantic Lithium reported 10,200m of infill drilling in the latest results from a total of 89 holes.
The company still has an approximate 26,800m of infill, extensional and exploration drilling remaining to report post completion of drilling activities for the year.
Highlights from the recently completed updated scoping study at Ewoyaa, based on a 2.0mtpa include:
Pre-tax NPV8% of US$1,227m
Pre-tax EBITDA of US$2,024m
Post-tax NPV8% of US$789m
Post-tax IRR of 194%
Average EBITDA of US$178m per annum
*SP Angel acts as Nomad to Atlantic Lithium
Hummingbird Resources (Hummingbird Resources PLC (LSE:HUM)) 13.2p, Mkt Cap £52m – Guidance revised down to 84-89koz for 2021
The Company provided an update on the pace of a recovery of its operations at the Yanfolila gold mine following a recent six days’ stoppage on security issues earlier in Nov/Dec.
Mining and processing operations are running on 24-hour schedule with the runrate continuing to rampup to nameplate capacity.
Increased security including the presence of National Mali Government personnel will remain at site as Yanfolila ramps up production.
At the mine site, the team completed dewatering of operating pits including Komana East and Komana West catching on lost time during the unrest with both pits now in operation.
The mining contractor’s mining excavator fleet has been underperforming in terms of availability and delivering scheduled mining volume rates.
The team is expecting additional excavators to arrive at site (one extra should be available before year end) to increase availability, optionality and all improved maintenance of existing equipment.
Ramping up at the processing plant is being gradual and driven by the availability of the ore from the mine site.
Limited damage was reported with all required repairs completed following a full review of plant and equipment.
Yanfolila produced 82koz year to date.
2021 guidance has been revised to 84-89koz at AISC of $1,490-1,590/oz compared to the previous estimate of 100-110koz at $1,250-1,350/oz.
The Company is to provide 2022 outlook in its Q4/21 operations update due late Jan/22.
Power Metal Resources* (Power Metal Resources PLC (AIM:POW)) 1.48p, Mkt Cap £18.6m – New Ballarat Update
Power Metal reports an update from its joint venture subsidiary New Ballarat Gold Corporation (NBGC), located in the Victoria Goldfields in Australia.
NBGC is a privately owned joint venture company owned 50.1% by Red Rock Resource and 49.9% by Power Metal.
NBGC's first diamond drill programme begins at O'Loughlin's prospect south of Buninyong, targeting a 1km structure.
Power Metal expect to drill ~600m at O'Loughlins followed by 1,400m at Pitfield early next year.
NBGC has also been granted a new 489 km2 exploration licence EL007282 (Blue Sky) in Victoria, Australia, with 9 licences now granted covering 1,501 km2.
Paul Johnson, Chief Executive Officer of Power metal Resources commented: "Today marks an important point in the life of New Ballarat Gold Corporation as inaugural gold exploration drilling commences. We look forward to the results feeding out from the project.”
*SP Angel acts as Nomad and Broker to Power Metal Resources
Savannah Resources* (Savannah Resources PLC (AIM:SAV, ETR:SAV, OTC:SAVNF)) 4.3p, Mkt Cap £73m – Proposed regional refineries bring local lithium deposits in the spotlight
BUY – 17.9p
Two announcements were released this week on proposed lithium refineries in Portugal.
Galp, a major Portuguese integrated energy group, is partnering up with Northvolt, a private Swedish battery developer and manufacturer, to develop Europe’s largest lithium refinery in Portugal.
A 50/50 JV called Aurora is planning to invest ~€700m in the facility with an initial annual production capacity of up to 35kt battery grade lithium hydroxide (LiOH).
The joint venture is currently conducting technical and economic studies and looking at several possible site locations.
A final investment decision is yet to be finalised, but the JV is envisaging a start of operations by YE25 and start of commercial operations in 2026.
The plant will deliver 50GWh of battery production per year sufficient to power 700k EVs with Northvolt to secure an offtake for up to 50% of the plant’s capacity.
“The partners are confident that Iberia hosts resources which can be recovered with a low greenhouse gas emission footprint, using the highest standards for environment and human rights protection, in compliance with best industry practices and environmental policies, ensuring a long-term sustainable value for all stakeholders,” the announcement read.
SAV’s commercial discussion with Galp around offtake have continued throughout 2021 and are ongoing.
Separately, Reed Advance Materials (RAM), a JV between Neometals (70%, Mkt Cap A$570m) and Mineral Resources (30%, Mkt Cap A$9.3bn) signed a binding partnership agreement with Bondalti Chemicals, Portugal’s largest chemical producer, for commercialisation of its ELi lithium process in Europe.
The jointly patented ELi lithium processing technology allows to purify and eltrolyse lithium chloride solutions, generated from either brine or spodumene resources to produce lithium hydroxide.
Evaluation studies indicate significant operating and capital cost savings over the traditional processing routes for the production of lithium hydroxide.
Bondalti and RAM will co-fund construction and operation of a pilot plant at Estarreja, Portugal, and complete evaluation studies over 18 months at a shared cost of US$4 million.
Pilot plant operations results will drive a decision to form a 50/50 JV for potential construction and operation of a lithium refinery at Bondalti’s chlor-alkali operations in Estarreja.
“ELi® feedstock flexibility enables domestic production of lithium chemicals from the conversion of both European hard rock and imported brine concentrates ensuring an ethical and resilient local lithium supply chain for the EV battery industry,” Neometals MD Chris Reed commented.
Conclusion: Both news highlight the growing momentum behind establishing processing capacities for lithium chemicals precursors in one of the world’s largest EV batteries markets lowering carbon footprint across the battery supply chain, reducing the dependence on imports as well as unlocking value in regional mineral resources.
Savannah Resources developing the flagship Barroso Lithium Project in Portugal will be an ideal feedstock source for a potential refinery. Commenting on the Galp/Northvolt facility and assuming the plant uses seven tons of SC6 per ton of produced LiOH, the facility will potentially require 245kt of spodumene concentrate more than covering envisaged ~190ktpa SC6 production rates at the Barroso operation. The proposed RAM/Bondalti facility adds further optionality for Barroso concentrate processing potentially increasing competition for the local lithium bearing feedstock.
*SP Angel act as Nomad to Savannah Resources
SolGold* (SolGold PLC (LSE:SOLG, TSX:SOLG, OTC:SLGGF)) 23.75p, Mkt Cap £547m –Maiden resource on Cacharposa copper-gold porphyry at the Porvenir project
(The Cacharposa porphyry copper-gold deposit at the Porvenir project is held by a 100% owned subsidiary of SolGold.)
SolGold report a maiden resource for the Cacharposa copper-gold porphyry in Southern Ecuador.
The 396.8mt indicated resource grades 0.44% copper equivalent containing 1.4mt of copper and 1.8moz of gold.
A further 96.9mt of inferred resource grades 0.37% copper equivalent for another 28,000t of copper and 38,000oz of gold
The mineralisation starts from surface and is exposed over a 650m long strike.
A 44mt higher grade zone grading 0.64% copper equivalent offers potential for a starter pit grading 0.44% copper and 0.34% gold.
A cut-off grade of 0.16* copper equivalent was used for the resource estimation indicating the assumed economic cut-off estimated for large-scale project construction in this area.
Optimisation of the resource also suggests potential for a larger 181.3mt zone grading 0.52% copper equivalent offering potential to construct a larger or longer term operation.
The resource is based on 18,636m of diamond drilling, 440m of rock saw channel samples and 16,982 final assay samples highlighting the scale of the work done on the project.
The Porvenir project lies ~100km north of the Ecuador-Peru border and ~100km south of Lundin Gold (TSX:LUG)’s Fruta Del Norte project. Newcrest recently invested $250m in Lundin Mining as part of a larger commitment to invest $400m in the Fruta Del Norte mine which hosts 4.82moz of gold and 6.34moz of silver.
Conclusion: Cacharposa offers a outcropping copper-gold resource with the potential for relatively quick access for mining. We suspect this will not be the last significant discovery within the SolGold exploration portfolio in Ecuador.
*Copper equivalent calculation is based on US$ 7,275/t copper and US$1,700/oz gold along with assumed metallurgical recoveries of 84% forcopper and 65% for gold.
No.1 in Copper: “The winner of the 2020 Fastmarkets Apex contest for copper was the team at SP Angel comprising John Meyer, Sergey Raevskiy and Simon Beardsmore, with an accuracy score of 93.8%”
No1. In Gold: “SP Angel’s trio took the top spot for the gold price prediction throughout the year, with an accuracy score of 97.59%”
The SP Angel team also ranked 1st in Palladium, 3rd in Tin and 5th in Silver in the fourth quarter of 2020
Analysts
John Meyer – John.Meyer@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0490
Simon Beardsmore – Simon.Beardsmore@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0484
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Sales
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+SP Angel employees may have previously held, or currently hold, shares in the companies mentioned in this note.
Sources of commodity prices
Gold, Platinum, Palladium, Silver
BGNL (Bloomberg Generic Composite rate, London)
Gold ETFs, Steel
Bloomberg
Copper, Aluminium, Nickel, Zinc, Lead, Tin, Cobalt
LME
Oil Brent
ICE
Natural Gas, Uranium, Iron Ore
NYMEX
Thermal Coal
Bloomberg OTC Composite
Coking Coal
SSY
RRE
Steelhome
Lithium Carbonate, Ferro Vanadium, Tungsten, Spodumene, Ferro-Manganese, Graphite
Asian Metal
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SPA is registered in England and Wales with company number OC317049. The registered office address is Prince Frederick House, 35-39 Maddox Street, London W1S 2PP. SPA is authorised and regulated by the UK Financial Conduct Authority and is a Member of the London Stock Exchange plc.
MiFID II - Based on our analysis we have concluded that this note may be received free of charge by any person subject to the new MiFID II rules on research unbundling pursuant to the exemptions within Article 12(3) of the MiFID II Delegated Directive and FCA COBS Rule 2.3A.19.
A full analysis is available on our website here http://www.spangel.co.uk/legal-and-regulatory-notices.html. If you have any queries, feel free to contact our Compliance Officer, Tim Jenkins (tim.jenkins@spangel.co.uk).
SPA research ratings – Based on a time horizon of 12 months: Buy = Expected return of more than 15%, Hold = Expected return between -15% and +15%, Sell = Expected return of less than 15%