SP Angel . Morning View . Wednesday 01 12 21
Li-ion battery prices fall despite rising underlying metals prices
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The FCA is also to allow exemptions for third party research on commodities instruments and research from research providers which do not supply execution services
Our research is and remains MiFID II compliant
Ariana Resources (Ariana Resources PLC (AIM:AAU)) –Apliki resource estimate
Atlantic Lithium* (Atlantic Lithium Limited (AIM:ALL)) - Formerly IronRidge* (IRR LN) – 47% increase in the Ewoyaa Lithium Resource Estimate
Beowulf Mining* (Beowulf Mining PLC (AIM:BEM)) – Swedish Minister of Trade and Industry “hopes to open more mines”
Galantas Gold (Galantas Gold Corp (AIM:GAL, TSX-V:GAL, OTC:GALKF)) – Test geophysical survey close to the Cavanacaw mine
Kore Potash (Kore Potash PLC (AIM:KP2, ASX:KP2, JSE:KP2)) – New NED from SQM
IGTV: Rolls-Royce electric aero engine boosts battery metals: https://youtu.be/LpQPztCiQqA
VOX Markets: 20/11/21: https://audioboom.com/posts/7983106-john-meyer-discusses-inflation-covid-china-slowing-plus-afritin-cornish-metals-ironridge-ra
*SP Angel almost invariably acts as nomad or broker or nomad and broker to companies mentioned in the above videos and podcasts.
We speak more about these companies as we have a good understanding of their business and can talk with a greater degree of confidence. As ever, however, it should be noted that our views do not take into account the circumstances and needs of any particular investor or investor type. So enjoy the talks, but please do your own research, including other companies not mentioned by us but operating in the same areas, and get professional advice where appropriate.
Lithium-ion battery prices fall 6% in 2021 despite rising commodity prices
Lithium-ion battery prices fell to an industry average of $132/kWh in 2021 according to Bloomberg NEF.
Battery pack prices fallen 89% since 2010, with a chart showing the decline shown here: CLICK FOR LINK.
Prices fell partly as a result of greater adoption of low-cost chemistries like lithium-ion-phosphate (LFP).
EV makers such as Tesla and VW have committed to using LFP battery chemistries in order to capitalise on lower costs.
According to the Nickel Institute, the price of LFP cathode active material (CAM) from CATL is 43% less expensive, (per kWh), than their NMC811 material.
Considering that the cathode is by far the most expensive component in the battery, a transition to LFP is bound to lead to lower lithium-ion battery prices despite the upward momentum in industrial metals prices.
Bloomberg NEF forecast average prices will be close to $100/kWh by 2023, with LFP batteries contributing to the lowest reported prices of $80/kWh.
The $100/kWh price is seen by market participants as a key inflection point where automakers will be able to sell mass market EVs at price parity with ICE vehicles in some markets.
Prices in the second half of this year experienced upward pressure as a result of the rising commodity prices, and Bloomberg forecasts that this may lead to higher prices in 2022.
We estimate LFP raw material costs to be around $69/kWh vs $82/kWh for 622 Li-ion batteries by our rough estimation.
Dow Jones Industrials -1.86% at 34,484
Nikkei 225 +0.41% at 27,936
HK Hang Seng +0.91% at 23,689
Shanghai Composite +0.36% at 3,577
Economics
China – Private sector manufacturing pulled back in November slipping just below the neutral 50.0 mark underperforming estimates.
New orders, employment and suppliers’ delivery times weighed on the headline index.
Although, respondents highlighted that firmer market conditions and a relative improvement in energy supply supported higher production.
Interestingly, the rate of inflation was the slowest seen since October 2020.
Despite raw prices and transportation costs remaining high the rate of goods’ inflation slowed considerably on the month.
Official manufacturing PMI 50.1 in November vs 49.2 in October
Nonmanufacturing PMI 52.3 in November 52.4 in October
Caixin Manufacturing PMI: 49.9 v 50.6 in Oct and 50.6 est.
Composite PMI 52.2 in November 50.8 in October
China’s faltering housing market recovers slightly on more lenient lending arrangements
New home sales by area up 12% m-o-m in Nov. (Central Wealth Securities)
Buyers’ confidence has been boosted by Beijing’s demands for lenders to give more stringent home loan approvals.
Home loans in China up 1% in Oct. vs Oct. 20, up US$15.9bn over Sept. 21. (SCMP)
Average interest rate for 1st time buyers 5.7%, down 4bps vs Oct.
Average wait time for mortgage approval down 5 days vs Oct.
Chinese bank officials stated that financial institutions had tightened mortgage approvals in the wake of the major developers’ debt crisis.
US – Jerome Powell looks to accelerate stimulus tapering on rising inflation, telling the Senate the Fed may increase the pace of asset-purchase tapering at its next meeting.
The Fed currently plans to end its $120bn monthly asset-buying program by June before hiking interest rates.
The Fed will now ‘retire’ the transitory label on current inflation, expecting high consumer prices to persist through 2022.
US 10 & 30-Year treasury yields posting their sharpest monthly fall since July and gold prices slid to $1,780/oz.
Dallas Fed manufacturing index 11.8 in November vs 14.6 in October
Pending home sales 7.5% in November vs -2.3% in October and -1.4% yoy in November vs -8.2% in October
Chicago PMI 61.8 in November vs 68.4 in October
Consumer confidence fell in November coming in below market forecasts in November with October data also revised downwards (Blomberg)
Respondents highlighted concerns over higher inflation, although the assessment of the labour market in the Conference Board’s report was moderately better.
House prices registered nearly 20%yoy increase in September on the back of low interest rates, a limited supply of homes and pent-up demand form consumers locked in last year by the pandemic.
Additionally, raw materials’ and transportation costs inflation added to higher property prices.
Phoenix was reported the nation’s hottest market with a 33.1%yoy increase.
Conference Board Consumer Confidence: 109.5 v 111.6 (revised from 113.8) in Oct and 110.9 est.
S&P Case Shiller House Prices Index (%mom): 0.96 v 1.16 in Aug and 1.20 est.
S&P Case Shiller House Prices Index (%yoy): 19.05 v 19.65 in Aug and 19.30 est.
US-EU begin negotiations to limit ‘dirty’ Chinese steel from markets
The US plans to form a ‘metals alliance’ with the EU to stop Chinese dumping of cheaper steel in global markets.
They plan to form ‘the world’s first carbon-based sectoral agreement on steel and aluminium trade.’ (SCMP)
The US is looking to protect its domestic steelmaking industry whilst both parties emphasise their need for ‘clean steel.’
China steel output in Oct. down 23% y-o-y to 71.6mt (NBS)
EU - Economic sentiment 117.5 in November vs Oct 118.6 in October
Industrial confidence 14.1 in November vs 14.2 in October
Service confidence 18.4 in November vs 18.0 in October
Consumer confidence -6.8 in November vs -4.8 in October
Preliminary Nov German CPI 5.2% in November vs Oct 4.5% in October
Unemployment 5.3% in November vs 5.4% in October
Eurozone - CPI rose 27% to 4.9% in November – its highest level in 25 years vs 4.1% in October
Japan - Retail sales rose 1.1% in October vs 2.8% in September and 0.9% yoy in October and -0.5% in September
Unemployment 2.7% in October vs 2.8% in September
Construction orders up 2.1% yoy in October vs 27.3% in September
South Korea - Industrial production fell 3% in October vs -1.1% in September and rose 4.5% yoy in October vs a fall of -1.8% yoy in September
Manufacturing 4.6% yoy in October vs -1.9% yoy in September
Retail sales 0.2% in October vs 2.5% in September and rose 7.4% yoy in October vs 3.6% yoy in September.
Singapore – Central bank adds to gold reserves for first time in decades
Singapore increased its gold reserves by 20% earlier this year, according to data from the Monetary Authority of Singapore’s International Reserves and Foreign Currency Liquidity reports.
The purchases totalled 26.3t (~928koz) and were completed over May and June, and the first since the year 2000.
The central bank didn’t disclose what was paid for the gold, however at these prices the total would be over $1.5bn.
Turkey – Q3 GDP rose 2.7% qoq vs 0.9% in Q2 and 7.4% yoy in Q3 and 22% yoy in Q2
Economic confidence 99.3 in November vs 101.4 in October
India - Q3 GDP fell to 8.4% yoy vs 20.1% in Q2
India’s coal shortage eases on slowing power demand
India electricity demand up 2.2% in Nov. vs 4.1% increase in Oct. (Reuters)
India faced severe coal shortages in Sept. and Oct.
31/135 power plants had inventories of 3 days or less vs 44 in Oct.
Average daily November coal-fired power generation down 2.8% vs Oct.
Increased power demand stemmed from India’s industrial hub Maharashtra whilst renewable output typically falls in Q4.
Baltic index hits 1-month high on rising capesize and panamax rates
Baltic index up 4.8% to highest since Nov. 2.
Capesize index up 8,2%, highest since Oct. 28 with daily rates up $2,058 to $31,371.
Capesizes transport iron ore and coal primarily with 150kt capacity.
China iron ore up 6% as steelmakers look to restock.
Dry bulk rates had been falling on higher China iron ore inventories and reduced shipping congestion.
Chile mining royalty bill advanced by Senate
A bipartisan royalty bill looking to increase payments from mining companies was approved 18/16 for continued modifications.
The bill has been strongly opposed by the mining sector.
Some opposition lawmakers are trying to increase the levy to fund post-pandemic social programs.
IEA calls for a doubling of renewable energy pace to limit global warming
Despite forecasts of an additional 290Gw in renewable capacity this year, the IEA states double this pa is required to hit net zero by 2050.
The report states that higher raw material costs limiting investment into solar panels and wind turbines.
The report forecasts renewable electricity capacity to grow to 4,800GW, up 60% from 2020.
Global fossil fuel and nuclear capacity combined currently stands at 4,800GW. (FT)
The report expects China to reach its 1,200GW renewable target in 2026, 4 years earlier than its 2030 target.
Currencies
US$1.1351/eur vs 1.1332/eur yesterday. Yen 113.35/$ vs 113.11/$. SAr 15.826/$ vs 16.142/$. $1.332/gbp vs $1.333/gbp. 0.715/aud vs 0.712/aud. CNY 6.370/$ vs 6.372/$.
Commodity News
Precious metals:
Gold US$1,783/oz vs US$1,793/oz yesterday
Gold ETFs 98.5moz vs US$98.5moz yesterday
Platinum US$950/oz vs US$956/oz yesterday
Palladium US$1,753/oz vs US$1,806/oz yesterday
Silver US$22.90/oz vs US$22.92/oz yesterday
Rhodium US$13,900/oz vs US$13,900/oz yesterday
Base metals:
Copper US$ 9,555/t vs US$9,495/t yesterday
Aluminium US$ 2,656/t vs US$2,620/t yesterday
Nickel US$ 20,155/t vs US$19,990/t yesterday
Zinc US$ 3,201/t vs US$3,212/t yesterday
Lead US$ 2,290/t vs US$2,287/t yesterday
Tin US$ 38,835/t vs US$39,400/t yesterday
Energy:
Oil US$71.8/bbl vs US$71.9/bbl yesterday
The latest uncertainty of the Omicron variant continues to weigh on oil prices
The head of Moderna stated that COVID-19 vaccines are unlikely to be as effective against the Omicron variant of the coronavirus as they have been against the Delta variant
Oil fell 12% on Friday along with other markets on fears the heavily mutated Omicron would spark fresh lockdowns and dent global oil demand
It is still unclear how severe the new variant is
With a weakening demand outlook, expectations are growing that OPEC+ will put on hold plans to add 400,000bopd to supply in January
Also pressuring prices, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said the US central bank likely will discuss speeding its reduction of large-scale bond purchases at its next policy meeting, amid a strong economy and expectations that a surge in inflation will persist into the middle of next year
Activity in later-dated futures contracts shows that the market is becoming less worried about demand outstripping supply in the short term, and of oversupply in the first half of next year
The premium on Brent and WTI contracts expiring in one month versus those expiring in six months has narrowed to its lowest levels since March
This metric is watched by traders as an indicator for future supply; the higher the cost of the near-dated contract, the more worries there are about a coming supply deficit
Brent's six-month backwardation narrowed to around US$1.50/bbl, the lowest since March
WTI's six-month backwardation fell to about US$1.90/bbl, its lowest since September
That reduced premium indicates less worry about future supply and current levels of demand
It is unclear if OPEC+ will put on hold plans to add 400,000bopd to supply in January
The group was already weighing the effects of last week's announcement by the US and other countries to release emergency crude reserves to temper energy prices
Natural Gas US$4.364/mmbtu vs US$4.672/mmbtu yesterday
US natural gas futures fell to their lowest levels in nearly three months yesterday as warmer-than-expected winter forecasts sent prices tumbling
Outside of modest increases in LNG feed gas demand, the sharp move higher Friday occurred despite notable further deterioration in the fundamental picture for natural gas
European prices continue to hold up on last week’s news that Germany's energy regulator has suspended the approval process for the Nord Stream 2 pipeline last week
Vladimir Putin continues to exert pressure on Europe with declining gas flows amid the onset of the Northern Hemisphere winter
Uranium UXC US$47.25/lb vs $48.05/lb last week
Bulk:
Iron ore 62% Fe spot (cfr Tianjin) US$102.4/t vs US$102.1/t
Chinese steel rebar 25mm US$749.1/t vs US$748.0/t
Thermal coal (1st year forward cif ARA) US$121.0/t vs US$121.0/t
Thermal coal swap Australia FOB US$142.8/t vs US$158.0/t
Coking coal swap Australia FOB US$302.0/t vs US$291.0/t
Other:
Cobalt LME 3m US$65,800/t vs US$63,155/t
NdPr Rare Earth Oxide (China) US$134,645/t vs US$134,181/t
Lithium carbonate 99% (China) US$29,127/t vs US$29,112/t
China Spodumene Li2O 5%min CIF US$2,260/t vs US$2,260/t
Ferro-Manganese European Mn78% min US$1,900/t vs US$1,898/t
China Tungsten APT 88.5% FOB US$313/t vs US$313/t
China Graphite Flake -194 FOB US$665/t vs US$665/t
Europe Vanadium Pentoxide 98% 8.1/lb vs US$8.1/lb
Europe Ferro-Vanadium 80% 32.55/kg vs US$32.55/kg
China Ilmenite Concentrate TiO2 US$385/t vs US$385/t
Spot CO2 Emissions EUA Price US$84.2/t vs US$84.0/t
Company News
Ariana Resources (Ariana Resources PLC (AIM:AAU)) 4.1p, Mkt Cap £45m –Apliki resource estimate
Ariana reports a JORC (2012) compliant indicated and inferred mineral resource estimate of approximately 11mt at an average grade 0.35% copper at its 50% owned Apliki project in Cyprus.
The largest part of the reserve comes from the West Apliki deposit which contains approximately 7.6mt at an average grade of 0.34% copper, of which approximately 4.1mt averaging 0.39% is classified as indicated.
The Apliki mine is reported to contain 0.81m inferred tonnes at an average grade of 0.69% copper with stockpiles containing a probable reserve of 0.80mt at 0.34% copper plus an additional inferred 1.73mt at an average grade of 0.34% copper.
The estimates have been prepared internally by Ariana Resources and its partner, Venus Minerals using results from its continuing due diligence work, including diamond drilling at West Apliki as well as historical drilling including 96 holes at West Apliki and 100 holes at the Apliki mine.
The company comments that “there is further potential to expand the Apliki Mine resource to the north and east of the current open pit walls, however, further work is required to determine the full extent and nature of such remaining resources, which will be a significant priority for future Venus exploration”.
Managing Director, Dr. Kerim Sener, commented that “Apliki represents a significant European opportunity for the production of high-purity cathode copper using a tried-and-tested hydrometallurgical processing route with a low environmental impact. Beyond the resource areas identified here, there are clearly areas of potential resource upside, particularly in the Apliki Mine area and specifically its related stockpiles”.
He also said that consultants had been appointed to “assess the condition and capacity of the processing plant which is on standby for re-installation at the Apliki site. Based on an initial review it is clear that some additional processing upside exists, which will complement any growth in the resource base”.
Atlantic Lithium* (Atlantic Lithium Limited (AIM:ALL)) 22.4p, Mkt cap £129m – 47% increase in the Ewoyaa Lithium Resource Estimate
Formerly IronRidge* (LON:IRR)
Atlantic Lithium reports a 47% increase in JORC-compliant Mineral Resource Estimate to 21.3Mt at 1.31% Li2O in Indicated and Inferred status at the Ewoyaa deposit.
The MRE includes a total of 16.1Mt at 1.28% Li2O in the Inferred category and 5.2Mt at 1.39% Li2O in the Indicated category.
The current resource upgrade is based on C.56,500m of drilling, with an additional c.28,000m of infill and extensional drilling currently pending and not included in the resource upgrade.
The current resource model is estimated from a pegmatite body that utilises a 0.4% Li2O wireframing cut-off grade, however Atlantic will undertake further studies to assess the potential benefits of increased production by reducing the cut-off grade on overall project economics, consistent with market price predictions and price trends.
Reducing the cut-off grade to 0.25% Li2O gives a cumulative resource of 27.1Mt at 1.09% Li2O.
The Ewoyaa lithium deposits show good continuity of the main mineralised units, with consistency evident in the thickness of the structure and reflected in the total resource grade, which remains unchanged.
Highlights from the scoping study at Ewoyaa completed in January 2021, based on a 2.0mtpa include:
Pre-tax NPV8% of US$539m
Pre-tax EBITDA of US$854m
Post-tax NPV8% of US$345m
Post-tax IRR of 125%
EBITDA of US$105mpa average
Costs: US$247/t of spodumene concentrate
Price: US$650/t assumed for 6% spodumene concentrate.
Payback is expected to be <1 year.
Atlantic have secured securing an agreement with Nasdaq-listed Piedmont Lithium to fully fund and fast track development of the Ewoyaa Lithium Project to production for US$102m.
Vincent Mascolo, Chief Executive Officer of Atlantic Lithium, said: “We are pleased to have increased Ghana’s first lithium resource by nearly 50% to 21.3Mt at 1.31% Li2O and will continue to further enhance this compelling project with ongoing drilling programs. With some 28,000m of infill and extensional drilling not included in the current resource estimate and with mineralisation open at depth and along strike we are confident of further resource upgrades.”
“Due to the coarse nature of the spodumene dominant mineralisation, metallurgical test-work to date has consistently delivered high-purity, low contaminants >6% Li2O spodumene concentrate at a coarse 6.3mm crush utilising conventional DMS gravity separation; boding well for low capital, operating and carbon intensities.”
“Delivery of the upgraded 21.3Mt at 1.31% Li2O Mineral Resource estimate is an important de-risking milestone for this industry standout project. With Ewoyaa being fully funded to production through our agreement with Piedmont Lithium, this upgrade highlights the exceptional potential of the project and the value that it brings to the Company.”
*SP Angel acts as Nomad to Atlantic Lithium
Beowulf Mining* (Beowulf Mining PLC (AIM:BEM)) 7.2p, Mkt cap £76.1m – Swedish Minister of Trade and Industry “hopes to open more mines”
Karl-Petter Thorwaldsson was announced as Minister of Trade and Industry yesterday and called for better dialogue between politics and business about what needs exist and how these should be prioritized.
Mr Thorwaldsson has previously worked for steel group SSAB, where he closely followed the company's transition to fossil-free steel.
Regarding mining in Sweden, Thorwaldsson commented: “It is not that we take environmental issues lightly, but yes, we love mines in the Social Democrats. It is fantastic that we can mine ore and minerals from our mountains, make new products from them and export to other countries. So yes - I hope to be able to open and give permission for several new mines.”
*SP Angel acts as Nomad and Broker to Beowulf Mining
Galantas Gold (Galantas Gold Corp (AIM:GAL, TSX-V:GAL, OTC:GALKF)) 22.5p, Mkt Cap £16.5m – Test geophysical survey close to the Cavanacaw mine
Galantas Gold reports the completion of test geophysical induced polarisation (IP) surveys over two previously identified targets close to the Cavanacaw gold mine in Co Tyrone, Northern Ireland.
A 1 km2 grid, located around 500m east of the Kearney Vein, covered a known structure, the Elkins Vein, which had been drilled in 2006-07 with “with shallow downhole intersections grading up to 16.4 grams per tonne (g/t) gold (Au) over 0.6 metres, 11.3 g/t Au over 1.7 metres, and 4.1 g/t Au over 3.3 metres”. The geophysical work identified the Elkins Vein with an “apparent resistivity IP anomaly aligned north-south coincides with the previously known portion of the Elkins Vein. The resistivity anomaly suggests continuity of the Elkins structure to the south. A further resistivity high, approximately 300 metres to the east, also aligns with historically recorded base-of-till gold”.
A second area of a similar size was surveyed covering “a historical gold anomaly cluster at Pigeon Top approximately 1,500 metres west of the Joshua Vein”. Historic records “show that the original licence holders recovered samples at rock-head with values up to 13.5 g/t gold. High values of residual resistivity, oriented north-south over approximately 500 metres, coincide with these base-of-till gold anomalies. No diamond drilling has been conducted at Pigeon Top to date”.
Interpretation of the IP data indicate that “the anomalies most likely represent fault structures in the bedrock” with “no evidence that they are caused by variation in the overburden.”
The company explains that “The local and regional bedrock stratigraphy is oriented east-north-east at a high angle to the anomalies. In contrast, the known Cavanacaw vein systems all have a northerly orientation within 20 degrees of each other. Technical literature on other occurrences indicate that high resistivity can be caused by pore water and strong wall-rock alteration, both of which are observed underground in the wall rocks of the Joshua and Kearney veins. It is therefore most likely that high residual resistivity anomalies represent fault zones which potentially host the gold veins at Cavanacaw”.
Commenting on the results, which represent “the first time ground geophysical surveys were conducted on the property since the 1980s when Rio Tinto explored the area”, CEO, Mario Stefano, said that the combination of the geophysical results and “high-grade gold samples at the target areas, provide us with new drilling targets … [and] … strengthen our belief in the prospectivity of our 549-square-kilometre district-scale exploration licence to build on our high-grade gold resources at Cavanacaw”.
Conclusion: Induced polarisation surveys over known areas of mineralisation close to the Cavanacaw mine appear to demonstrate the ability of IP to identify mineralisation and potential drilling targets in the local geological conditions. We imagine that Galantas Gold will now extend the technique more widely across its licence area.
Kore Potash (Kore Potash PLC (AIM:KP2, ASX:KP2, JSE:KP2) LN) 1.0p, Mkt Cap £33m – New NED from SQM
SQM nominated Pablo Hernandez Mac-Donald as a new Non-Executive Director to the Board of the Company with immediate effect.
Mr MacDonald joined SQM in 2013 as Vice President Finance Commercial Offices reporting to the SQM CFO.
Pablo completed Industrial Engineering and Master of Science in Engineering degrees having graduated from Pontificia Universidad Catolica de Chile in 2013 and MBA from Emory University in 2019.
Pablo is replacing Ignacio Majluf who left SQM.
SQM holds ~15% in the Company.
No.1 in Copper: “The winner of the 2020 Fastmarkets Apex contest for copper was the team at SP Angel comprising John Meyer, Sergey Raevskiy and Simon Beardsmore, with an accuracy score of 93.8%”
No1. In Gold: “SP Angel’s trio took the top spot for the gold price prediction throughout the year, with an accuracy score of 97.59%”
The SP Angel team also ranked 1st in Palladium, 3rd in Tin and 5th in Silver in the fourth quarter of 2020
Analysts
John Meyer – John.Meyer@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0490
Simon Beardsmore – Simon.Beardsmore@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0484
Sergey Raevskiy –Sergey.Raevskiy@spangel.co.uk - 0203 470 0474
Joe Rowbottom – Joe.Rowbottom@spangel.co.uk - 0203 470 0486
Sales
Richard Parlons –Richard.Parlons@spangel.co.uk - 0203 470 0472
Abigail Wayne – Abigail.Wayne@spangel.co.uk - 0203 470 0534
Rob Rees – Rob.Rees@spangel.co.uk - 0203 470 0535
Grant Barker – Grant.Barker@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0471
SP Angel
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*SP Angel are the No1 integrated nomad and broker by number of mining brokerage clients on AIM according to the AIM Advisers Ranking Guide (joint brokerships excluded)
+SP Angel employees may have previously held, or currently hold, shares in the companies mentioned in this note.
Sources of commodity prices
Gold, Platinum, Palladium, Silver
BGNL (Bloomberg Generic Composite rate, London)
Gold ETFs, Steel
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Copper, Aluminium, Nickel, Zinc, Lead, Tin, Cobalt
LME
Oil Brent
ICE
Natural Gas, Uranium, Iron Ore
NYMEX
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SSY
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