It’s been another complicated twelve months in the mining sector, but at least this time round the annual end of year event, the Mines & Money show in London, is happening in the real world and not just online.
Even so, the uncertainties from last year linger on, as the world’s newest millenarian cult continues to spread fear and disrupt lives and markets.
Will Indaba, the traditional opener for the mining calendar year, take place in person in 2022? That’s got to be an even bet now at best, as the world rushes to restrict travel and physical communication with South Africa.
The mining sector itself has largely been able to work around the COVID chaos. Travel restrictions have curtailed director travel significantly, but not all mining company executives are complaining about that. And there are issues with getting drillers across borders, and even, in the case of Australia, state lines.
The supply chain issues that have affected the wider global economy have also had an impact on mining.
But the sector in general is familiar with the problem of backlogs at the assay labs, and overall this year those have been caused for broadly the right reasons – that activity levels have been high, and labs haven’t been able to keep up.
What it all means for commodity demand going forward remains an open question, though, and it will be interesting to see what the banner speakers and the delegates on the floor at Mines & Money this year have to say about that.
On the one had there’s the Great Reset and Build Back Better. The Democrats in the USA seem to want to spend huge sums of money on economic recovery, and a lot of that will go on infrastructure. That’s a big tick in the box for the mining sector.
On the other hand, the same Democrats are the ones who get jumpy at the first sign of a new COVID variant and – you guessed it – are in a rush to shut down the economy. In between these two opposing forces the Republicans, for now, are twisting in the wind. But will 2022 herald a comeback for the Grand Old Party, and with it a renewed will on behalf of America to curtail spending? We shall see.
Meanwhile, China continues to spend too, and appears to be easing up in its hostility against one of its major suppliers of commodities, Australia. It will be interesting to see what the delegates on the floor have to say about that too.
And will there be masks galore on the floor? The answer to that question may be the easiest guide of all as to how the mining sector is really feeling.