Various windows into the UK retail sector will be on display on Tuesday, with results from Primark owner AB Foods as well as industry price data the BRC and supermarket spending numbers from Kantar.
There should also be some insight into two sides of the property market, with updates from housebuilder Persimmon and office and retail property developer Land Securities.
How fast are grocery trends returning to pre-pandemic levels?
A month ago, Kantar data showed supermarket sales fell by 1.2% year on year in the 12 weeks to 3 October, though remained 8.1% higher than two years ago.
Underlying trends were blurred as Britain's mini fuel stations crisis reduced meant people limited the number of trips they made to supermarkets.
Grocery prices will be in the spotlight, given that inflation is a big area of focus. A month ago, like-for-like grocery inflation was up 1.7%.
Kantar said: “In real-world terms, the average household had to spend an extra £5.94 on groceries last month than they did at the same time last year. The typical household spends £4,726 per year in the supermarkets, so any future price rises will quickly add up. Shoppers will look to manage their spend by carefully selecting the products and retailers that offer them the best value.”
AB Foods to shine light on Primark and Grocery supply chains
Associated British Foods PLC (LSE:ABF) is due to release its preliminary results, where is Primark arm is expected to deliver once again some strong numbers.
The fast-fashion brand has been going from strength to strength even though it’s lacking an online presence, with swathes of faithful shoppers willing to wait for stores to open after lockdown instead of switching to other brands.
“Investors will want to see Primark’s prowess in good stock management continue as avoiding excess discounting has helped protect margins,” said Susannah Streeter, senior analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown.
“Although sales in the Grocery division have appeared to be on the wane, it’s partly because of comparisons to the start of the pandemic when stockpiling was all the rage, so overall the performance has been robust. There will inevitably be worries that supply chain issues could cause a headache, so any signs of particular resilience on this front will be eagerly sought.”
Land ahoy
Interims from Land Securities Group PLC (LSE:LAND) (Land Securities Group PLC (LSE:LAND)) should also shine a light on the retail sector, in what's expected to be a tale of two halves of the business, offices and retail.
On the plus side, there should be a continued recovery in London office rents and capital values, said analysts at Peel Hunt, "but this is likely to be largely offset by continued declines across the shopping centre portfolio".
The recent update from West End landlord Shaftesbury (LSE:SHB) suggests Central London retail and leisure assets may be rebounding, the analysts added, "but we don't think this will be enough" to prevent a small decline in net asset value.
Persimmon has its own supply chain
The focus is expected to be on sales numbers as housebuilder Persimmon PLC releases a trading update, with its most recent commentary in August highlighting 20% growth.
Considering that last year there was 38% growth, analysts at UBS said a similar run rate this year would imply sales rates would be down 13% year-on-year.
But UBS does not expect material changes to full-year guidance at this stage.
The analysts added: “Given positive reporting elsewhere, we think the market will also expect Persimmon to report robust trading conditions. The concern is perhaps more about the future, if house price were to slow down and/or interest rates go up.”
Significant announcements expected on Tuesday 9 November:
Trading updates: Direct Line PLC, Persimmon PLC, Watches of Switzerland PLC
Interims: 3I Infrastructure PLC, DCC PLC, Land Securities PLC, Oxford Instruments PLC, Renewi PLC, Warehouse REIT PLC
Finals: Associated British Foods PLC
Economic data: BRC Shop Price Index (UK), Producer Price Index (US)