SP Angel . Morning View . Friday 20 08 21
Gold edges higher in increase in Covid lockdowns in Asia
IGTV: Mining sector: where now as Gates & Bezos move in?: https://youtu.be/3is7kRMb7yk
VOX Markets: 18/08/21: https://audioboom.com/posts/7926110-john-meyer-on-diamonds-gold-including-bluerock-petra-cora
Altus Strategies* (LON:ALS) - BUY – Valuation under review – Quarterly operations and financial update
Antofagasta (LON:ANTO) – Chilean drought pulls back production guidance
Asiamet Resources (LON:ARS) – Progress despite the challenges of Covid19 in Indonesia
Capital Limited (LSE:CAPD, FRA:C8D) (LON:CAPD) – Record interims highlight strong mining sector recovery and positive outlook
LME tin stocks continue to fall
A further 145t of tin left LME warehouses yesterday bringing total official LME tin stocks down to 1,715t.
The LME also saw another 110t of tin warrants cancelled reducing on warrant stocks to 1,065t.
Base metals pull back as - US dollar continues to gain
Increasing disagreement within the Federal Reserve suggests the Fed may start tapering its asset purchase program sooner than previously anticipated.
The US has been quick to vaccinate with some 359m doses given covering 51.5% of the total population and 169m now fully vaccinated
Countries with high vaccination rates are expected to emerge from the crisis sooner while less well vaccinated nations are likely to continue to struggle with lockdowns.
China continues with its Zero Covid policy, rapidly locking down and testing areas. There is little news to go on but many expect China to struggle to contain the Delta variant.
Remember, pollution through the industrialisation of their economy along with high levels of smoking may make China’s population more susceptible to respiratory diseases.
Gold edges higher amid rising virus cases and diminishing risk sentiment
Spot gold rose 0.3% this morning to $1785.93/oz, marking an overall rise of 0.4% this week.
The gold price has been held back in recent weeks by talks of an earlier-than-expected Fed tapering of asset buying and the subsequent strength of the dollar.
US investors’ appetite for risk is easing with expectations that the Delta variant could call an end to the market’s record-breaking rally.
The S&P 500 index fell to monthly lows yesterday, with Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) analysts revising their US growth forecast to by almost half. They estimate a 5.5% expansion in GDP rather than the previous 9%, citing the contagious Delta variant as the primary catalyst of a slowdown in growth.
It is expected that a rapid increase in Covid cases in the US could see a continuation of the large-scale asset buying programme from the Fed, a theory confirmed in the minutes released yesterday.
The New York Stock Exchange Gold Bugs index is still down 20% from 2020 highs following a rise in bond yields and the dollar.
Robert Minter, director of investment strategy at Aberdeen Standard Investments, described gold as a ‘constant opportunity for us any time it drops like this’.
Dow Jones Industrials -0.19% at 34,894
Nikkei 225 -0.98% at 27,013
HK Hang Seng -1.73% at 24,878
Shanghai Composite -1.15% at 3,426
Economics
Covid-19 – Global trade may weaken if Dellta variant closes more ports and creates many more lockdowns
World Trade Organization ‘WTO’ are concerned that their goods trade index may have peaked at 110.4 up 20pts yoy.The index fell to a record low of 87.6 in May 2020.
The WTO index is based on key economic indicators such as global export orders, the trade in electronic components and agricultural raw materials (SCMP).
While indicators such as air freight, container shipping and raw materials have been rising, more forward-looking indicators such as new export orders index have slowed more definitively according to the WTO.
Lockdowns across Asia are posing an increasing risk to global trade and economic activity, though nations are better able to manage the situation.
Oxford study shows vaccinated people carry same viral load as unvaccinated
The Delta Covid-19 variant is forcing a change of thinking on herd immunity and how government’s tackle the virus
A Oxford University study indicates that infected people carry the same viral load even if they have been vaccinated.
Other variants caused far lower viral loads in vaccinated people.
The news indicates that booster vaccinations will be all the more critical and we may be wearing masks for longer than anticipated.
Toyota to slash vehicle production by 40% as Semiconductor chip shortage continues to disrupt automotive production
Surging Covid-19 cases across south-east Asia have weighed on Semiconductor manufacturing and also on automotive assembly lines.
Toyota reports it will cut vehicle production by ~40%, reducing the number of vehicles made in September to ~540,000 from 900,000.
VW and others have already scaled back this year due to chip shortages with Toyota managing to avoid cuts till now.
Toyota had benefited from a larger inventory of chips part of a revamp to its business continuity plan, developed in the wake of the Fukushima earthquake and tsunami a decade ago.
VW has further warned that it may need to make greater cuts to production due to chip shortages.
Ford has also announced it will halt production of its F-150 pick-up truck a week on Monday.
GM have either added or extended to delays at production facilities in North America.
Vietnam and Malaysia are crucial providers of semiconductor chips and rising cases there have prompted carmakers to limit production.
The impact of the semiconductor shortage on consumer prices has been pointed to by economists and the Fed as a justification of soaring prices, ultimately reflected in inflation data.
Policymakers hope that an ease in supply disruptions will reflect the transitory nature of current inflation.
Pat Gelsinger, CEO of chipmaker Intel has warned that the worst of the shortage is yet to come and that it would be “a year or two” before supplies return to normal.
The shortage prompted US President Joe Biden to sign an executive order earlier this year to address the issue – $37bn in funding for legislation to increase chip manufacturing in the US.
Afghanistan – Joe Biden says the Taliban are in an existential crisis
Wikipedia define an existential crisis as moments when individuals question whether their lives have meaning, purpose, or value.
We are not sure this is going to bother any gun wielding Taliban fighters.
Question is, how is Afghanistan going to support its people, infrastructure and economy without US aid and support
Will it ramp up the poppy and opium trade which fuelled the Taliban in the past or can it find a new way?
Either way, running an economy with all its bureaucracy is not like running a terrorist organisation.
China eyes Afghanistan’s mineral wealth following Taliban’s resurgence
China’s state-owned tabloid, the Global Times, has announced China could contribute to resuming stalled natural resource projects in Afghanistan to boost post-war reconstruction.
The Metallurgical Corp of China has been cited by the tabloid as considering reopening Afghanistan’s largest copper project, assuming stability has been reached in the region.
Chinese officials have stated the Taliban have expressed their willingness to corroborate with foreign investors in the region.
A China National Petroleum Corp project has already been terminated in the Amu Darya Basin, however, with the CNPC seeing ‘the investment as a failure’.
Concerns from US officials over China’s access to Afghanistan’s rare earth and lithium supplies are sure to be raised.
A US Department of Defense memo in 2010 described Afghanistan as ‘the Saudi Arabia of lithium’.
Reports lack more precise estimates of the amount of the key battery making ingredient in the region.
In terms of rare earths, of which China currently dominates 90% of the global supply, Afghanistan is estimated to hold 1.4m t of rare earth minerals according to a 2019 mines ministry report.
Afghanistan is also estimated to hold close to 60m t of discovered and undiscovered copper deposits, with a consortium of Metallurgical Corp of China and Jiangxi Copper holding a 30-year lease on the country’s largest copper project from 2008.
Interactive Investor ‘ii’ – looking for £2bn IPO
Interactive Investor which runs the UK’s second largest direct trading platform is preparing to IPO.
The firm is currently owned by JC Flowers the US private equity business.
JC Flowers added the Alliance Trust Savings asset management business in 2018 for £40m and also acquired the rival Share Centre in a £61.9m deal .
Interactive Investors now has 400,000clients and £55bn of assets under management.
The firm added 31,667 new clients in H1 2021.
Currencies
US$1.1683/eur vs 1.1682/eur yesterday. Yen 109.68/$ vs 109.88/$. SAr 15.297/$ vs 15.037/$. $1.362/gbp vs $1.371/gbp. 0.712/aud vs 0.718/aud. CNY 6.500/$ vs 6.496/$.
Commodity News
Precious metals:
Gold US$1,787/oz vs US$1,782/oz yesterday
Gold ETFs 100.2moz vs US$100.3moz yesterday
Platinum (AIM:ZERO) US$985/oz vs US$985/oz yesterday
Palladium US$2,339/oz vs US$2,421/oz yesterday
Silver US$23.27/oz vs US$23.31/oz yesterday
Base metals:
Copper US$ 8,973/t vs US$8,959/t yesterday - Drought starting to restrict copper production in Chile
Aluminium US$ 2,557/t vs US$2,549/t yesterday
Nickel US$ 18,575/t vs US$18,825/t yesterday
Zinc US$ 2,960/t vs US$2,974/t yesterday
Lead US$ 2,252/t vs US$2,297/t yesterday
Tin US$ 32,385/t vs US$35,385/t yesterday
Energy:
Oil US$66.7/bbl vs US$67.1/bbl yesterday
Oil prices have fallen again to their lowest level since May after the US dollar strengthened on concerns that the global economic recovery might slow and the Federal Reserve’s signals that it will scale back stimulus measures
The dollar’s advance to its strongest level since early November added to recent worries in energy markets
Investors have had to temper previously bullish stances in recent days on rising COVID cases that are threatening to hamper the global recovery and could sap demand for oil in major economies like China
US crude inventories fell 3.2MMbbls last week to 435.5MMbbls, their lowest since January 2020, according to US Energy Department figures
Gasoline stocks, however, rose modestly, and gasoline product supplied to the market, a measure of demand, was 9.5MMbopd, just 1% below 2019 levels
Fuel demand in the world's top consumer has steadily increased throughout the year with the four-week average of overall US product supplied was 20.8MMbopd, in line with pre-coronavirus levels from 2019
That has come just as the OPEC+ agreed to raise output by 400,000bopd every month into next year, returning some of the supply the group has held back since early 2020
The IEA estimates that demand for oil is expected to increase at a slower rate over the rest of 2021 because of surging cases of the Delta variant
Also bearish for the markets in the longer term, a US offshore regulator yesterday said efforts to resume a federal oil and gas leasing program were underway and would soon bear results following a court decision ending a suspension
Natural Gas US$3.880/mmbtu vs US$3.797/mmbtu yesterday
Bulk:
Iron ore 62% Fe spot (cfr Tianjin) US$131.7/t vs US$148.5/t - Iron ore continues slump as China cracks down on production and growth slows
Iron ore in Singapore closed down 12% yesterday, its lowest price since December.
A combination of slowing economic activity, spreading Covid and disrupted supply chains have added to fears over China’s carbon emissions crackdown, creating a perfect storm for iron ore prices to move to the downside.
The price movement has been reflected in iron ore miners, with BHP down 18%, Rio down 16% and Vale down 13%.
China’s steel association has anticipated a further reduction in steel consumption will be triggered by Beijing’s tightening of property policy amid a red-hot real estate market.
Alternatively, analysts have pointed to low inventories at mills causing a potential for restocking demand in the second half of this year.
Chinese steel rebar 25mm US$796.5/t vs US$799.5/t
Thermal coal (1st year forward cif ARA) US$105.0/t vs US$108.3/t
Coking coal swap Australia FOB US$203.0/t vs US$201.0/t
China Ilmenite Concentrate TiO2 US$360.79/t vs US$361.0/t
Other:
Cobalt LME 3m US$51,500/t vs US$51,500/t
NdPr Rare Earth Oxide (China) US$94,004/t vs US$94,054/t
Lithium carbonate 99% (China) US$15,385/t vs US$15,393/t
China Spodumene Li2O 5%min CIF US$880/t vs US$880/t
Ferro-Manganese European Mn78% min US$1,735/t vs US$1,735/t
China Tungsten APT 88.5% FOB US$305/t vs US$305/t
China Graphite Flake -194 FOB US$520/t vs US$520/t
Europe Vanadium Pentoxide 98% 9.6/lb vs US$9.6/lb
Europe Ferro-Vanadium 80% 40.25/kg vs US$40.25/kg
Spot CO2 Emissions EUA Price US$66.8/t vs US$66.6/kg
Battery News
EV battery start-up Ample raises $160m to advance battery swapping technology
Ample, a US based developer of swappable EV batteries, has successfully completed a fundraising round for $160m.
The company has developed both an automated process which enables the swapping of old batteries for fresh packs as well as the battery itself.
The start-up has now raised $230m and wants to build a new testing site in NY before going international.
The company is looking to remove the concern over long charging times by offering quick battery swaps.
Chinese EV makers Nio and Xpeng are also exploring similar tech.
Ample has received backing from Shell and Repsol, with the company believing battery swapping ‘could solve a big problem’ for energy companies as they look to move their fleets to electric power.
First US hydrogen fuel cell vessel launched
Washington-based boat builder All American Marine and shipowner SWITCH Maritime have launched and started operational trials of their zero-emission, hydrogen fuel cell powered passenger ferry.
This is the first hydrogen fuel cell vessel in the US – an important step in the US maritime industry’s transition to a sustainable future.
The vessel is equipped with a hydrogen fuel cell power package comprised of 360kW of Cummins fuel cells and storage tanks with a capacity of 246kg. This system is integrated with 100kWh of lithium-ion battery and a 2 x 300 kW electric propulsion system provided by BAE Systems.
“By working closely with the US Coast Guard, with innovative technology partners, and with shipyards such as All American Marine, we can make the transition to decarbonised shipping a reality,” Pace Ralli, Co-Founder and CEO of SWITCH
UK Consortium formed to develop solid-state battery
A consortium of British companies and organisations will work together to try to commercialise a design for a solid-state battery.
The Faraday Institute, who developed the original design have teamed up with Britishvolt, Emerson & Renwick, Johnson Matthey and well as Oxford University, Warwick University, and the UK battery Industrialisation Centre.
The design from the Faraday Institute uses thin layers of ceramic as the electrolyte, but further details of materials used have not been disclosed for commercial reasons.
The consortium expects to have a prototype ready for commercial production by 2025.
Company News
Altus Strategies* (LON:ALS) 59p, Mkt Cap £47m – Quarterly operations and financial update
BUY – Valuation under review
The Company released Q2/21 operations and financial update highlighting progress on multiple fronts of a well diversified portfolio of projects and royalties.
At Diba project in western Mali, the Company commenced 17,500m RC and AC drilling programme to grow Diba MRE as well as northern strike of the Diba NW discovery (800m fom Diba) and evaluate artisanal workings at the Diba Far East Prospect (7km from Diba).
The programme follows up on 10,000m completed earlier in the year with new drilling to contribute towards update MRE and PEA planned for later this year.
The Diba MRE prepared in Jul/20 stands at 4.8mt at 1.39g/t for 217koz in the Indicated category and 5.5mt at 1.06g/t for 187koz in the Inferred resource.
At Tabakorole JV project in southern Mali, Marvel Gold, a JV partner, completed a ~5,100m AC drilling programme during the quarter targeting near-surface, high-grade intercepts that fall outside of the current MRE.
Ground magnetic survey as well as soil geochemistry study were completed as part of the ongoing regional exploration programme to identify future drilling targets.
The team secured three new base metals exploration licenses as well as extensions to existing permits in Morocco.
Prospects cover 221 km2 located in the Central Moroccan Hercynian Massif, a region prospective in copper, tin, lead and zinc and hosting a number of active and historical mines.
This brought Morocco portfolio to ten projects totalling 675 km2.
The Company announced new senior management team appointments to support key areas of operations including Amilha Young as Company Secretary and Legal Counsel (UK), Boubacar Thera as Corporate Manager (Mali) and David Hall as Strategic Advisor (Egypt).
Following quarter end, the team announced agreement to spend $34.1m to acquire 0.418% NSR royalty on Caserones Copper Mine in northern Chile with the deal supported by a strategic partnership with NYSE and TSX listed EMX Royalty and a $29m bridge loan provided by La Mancha.
The royalty is expected to generate ~$3.2m (post tax) per annum attributable to Altus and is the first cash paying royalty in the portfolio with the team currently working on additional revenue generating opportunities in gold and copper space to grow its royalty business.
At Diba, drilling returned high grade intersections including 8.50g/t over 24m from 20m including 26.45g/t over 7m, 2.54g/t over 30m from 36m and 2.45g/t over 15m from 26m.
Drilling works paused for the rainy season and are set to restart in September.
At Tabakorole, JV significantly grew the project landholding (by 100km2 to 292km2) with drilling ongoing and updated MRE targeted for Sep/21.
In Morocco, the team secured additional four licenses as well as an extension to the existing Agdz license for a total of 149km2.
New licenses are considered to be prospective in silver and copper and increase total Moroccan portfolio to 14 projects covering ~824km2.
The Company appointed Mark Campbell as the Chairman and Director of its wholly owned subsidiary Akh Gold Holdings and General Manager of its 100% owned subsidiary Akh Gold, a holder of recently awarded four gold exploration licenses covering ~1,600km2 of highly prospective ground in Eastern Desert of Egypt.
Mr Campbell brings 40 years of experience in the mining, investment banking and petroleum industries with over 30 years spent in Egypt.
The Company booked a £1.0 loss in Q2/21 taking the total to £2.3m for H1/21 (H1/20: £0.7m), reflecting higher exploration costs and administrative expenses as the team expanded scale of operations.
The Company remained debt free and well capitalised with £10.8m in cash and £2.0m in listed equities (Dec/20: £5.9m cash and £1.3m investments).
Conclusion: The team continued to de-risk portfolio of gold projects in Mali with drilling progressing at Diba and Tabakorole with respective MRE updates due later this year as well as grow the presence in Morocco with three new licenses secured in Q2/21 and additional four prospects post quarter end. Additionally, the team geared up its royalty business stream that delivered an agreement to acquire first revenue generating royalty this quarter. Caserones royalty marks an important milestone in the Company’s growth strategy and validates the royalty business model with the support from the major shareholder, La Mancha, providing the bridge loan to accelerate the financial close of the transaction. Meanwhile, the Company is building up a team to support exploration work at the newly secured and highly prospective exploration properties in Egypt.
*SP Angel acts as Nomad and Broker to Altus Strategies
Antofagasta (LON:ANTO) 1,368p, Mkt Cap £14bn – Chilean drought pulls back production guidance
Citing a continuing 12-year long drought Antofagasta yesterday reduced its 2021 copper production guidance to 710-740,000t from the previously indicated 730-760,000t range. Cost guidance has, however been maintained at US$1/25/lb.
The Antofagasta group produced 361,500t at a cash cost (net of by-products) of US$1.14/lb during the first half of 2021 “assuming by-product prices and the Chilean Peso exchange rate remain at similar levels as in the first half of the year” implying a modest cost increase to over US$1.30/lb during the second half of the year as the reduced output impacts.
Antofagasta says that volumes of water in the Mauro dam at its Los Pelambres mine have reached the lowest levels ever recorded despite efforts to improve the efficiency of its water recycling measures and the company says that “if there is no precipitation until the next rainy season and when the desalination plant comes into operation in H2 2022, preliminary estimates are that up to approximately 50,000 tonnes of production could be at risk at Los Pelambres in 2022”.
The news of the drought-induced reduction in output comes as the industry Chile court orders BHP's Cerro Colorado mine to stop pumping from aquifer - MINING.COM reports a court imposed embargo on water pumping at BHP’s Cerro Colorado.
Los Pelambres produced a total of 169,300t of copper at a cash cost of US$0.83/lb with Centinela contributing 132,100t at US$1.08/lb. The smaller mines at Antucoya and Zaldivar produced 39,500t at US$2.04/lb and 20,600t at US$2.46/lb respectively.
Commenting on the health of the copper market, Antofagasta says that it sees a global, post-pandemic recovery underway led by China but that it is also expecting “considerable demand growth” from Europe and North America.
The company also describes supportive long-term factors for the copper industry driven by the global shift towards decarbonisation and increasing urbanisation trends in “key developing countries” and a continuing trend of lower ore grades.
Asiamet Resources (LON:ARS) 2.35p, Mkt Cap £49.1m – Progress despite the challenges of Covid19 in Indonesia
Acknowledging that the impact of the Covid19 pandemic in Indonesia has caused some delays, including to the site preparation and some additional drilling at the BKM / BKZ copper project in Kalimantan, Asiamet Resources has provided a progress report on the project.
The first hole of a 3,000m programme aimed at resource expansion of both the BKM and BKZ deposits, “which remain open in multiple directions” has been completed and further drilling will test “Several highly promising targets generated from a review of previous work combined with the geophysical survey data” from a recently completed induced polarisation survey covering over 34-line km.
Metallurgical testing has shown copper recovery rates in the range 75-80% for tank leaching “however this comes with an increase in capital and operating costs” compared with the heap-leach option identified in the 2019 Feasibility Study.
Asiamet Resources says that “Simplifying this process flowsheet to produce a copper rich pyrite concentrate for sale into the very large Indonesian nickel laterite industry or metals recovery plants appears to be the most attractive alternative to heap leaching as it would also enable deeper sulphide and polymetallic ores from BKM and BKZ to be processed through the same plant”.
The company is evaluating the economics of the two alternatives in order to inform the decision of which processing route is most appropriate.
“Solid progress is being made for a project development partnership with a small group of high calibre investors …[and] … Discussions with several European and Asian mining finance banks were progressed”.
Asiamet says that its “comprehensive long term community development partnership with YTS and high industry standard environmental studies” place it in a strong position to advance these discussions with the banks.
Executive Chairman, Tony Manini, expressed pleasure at “the substantive progress being made on its development path for the BKM copper project … [and said that] … financing and development related activities are continuing at pace and closing in on a number of important project enabling milestones”
Capital Limited (LON:CAPD) 79p, Mkt Cap £150m – Record interims highlight strong mining sector recovery and positive outlook
The Company released interim results yesterday reporting record sales and earnings amid strength across all areas of the business.
Revenues at $98.7m, up 51.6%yoy.
EBITDA at $28.4m, up 84.4%yoy.
Net Earnings at $18.4m, up 35.3%yoy.
Strong gold prices provide good support for revenue generating mining services with ~90% of sales exposed to the African gold mining sector.
The Company reported the strongest demand environment for drilling service in a decade (~83% of total revenues) with rig utilisation averaging 73% in H1/21, up on 57% in H1/20.
Utilisation improved through the period with 79% reported in Q2/21 alone, the highest since Q1/13.
Strong pricing environment increased average monthly revenue per operating rig (APROR) to $180k, up 5.9%yoy.
Operations demonstrated good safety record well below market peers speaking of the provided services quality and benefiting utilisation rates.
Drilling rigs mainly come form Sandvik with lots of modifications for Capital specification representing part of the team’s IP.
Earth moving services are set to enjoy strong growth after winning a 120mt waste stripping contract at Sukari, owned and operated by Centamin, that together with expanded and extended drilling contract to bring in $235-260m over a four year period from Jan/21.
The contract secured in Dec/20 is the largest in the Company’s history and represents a significant endorsement of Capital that is likely to bring in business growth opportunities in the future.
Laboratory services segment (MSALABS) offering geochemical assays for exploration and mining companies doubled revenues to $6.5m.
The Group rolled out Chrysos Photon Assay service that is expected to be a disruptive X-ray based assay technology allowing for a 2h turnaround on results compared to fire assay turnaround of four weeks.
The technology is currently being tested at Barrick Bulyanhulu Gold Mine in Tanzania.
Total debt ticked to $53.6m (H2/20: $31.3m) driven by a more capital intensive period with most of Sukari related residual capex spent in H1/21.
Debt is at comfortable levels on absolute terms and is negligible when cash balance ($20m) and investments ($31m) are taken into account.
Investments performed well in lie with the rest of the mining sector and currently valued at $31m, up from $12.5 in Dec/19, with strong contribution from Firefinch, Predictive Discovery and Allied Gold Corp.
The Company announced 1.2c interim dividend (~2% DY annualised at spot), up on 0.9c in H1/20.
2021 is guided to be a record year with $200-210m in sales, implying 52%yoy increase and a recovery in the mining sector, with FCF generation to be skewed towards H2/21 on capital intensive start to the year.
Recent Interviews:
IGTV: Mining sector: where now as Gates & Bezos move in?: https://youtu.be/3is7kRMb7yk
China fearing failure in metals pricing tactic: https://youtu.be/RK4HQPrs60s
Evolution of Chinese construction and implications for commodity demand: https://youtu.be/jB2nURL8uPw
VOX Markets: 18/08/21: https://audioboom.com/posts/7926110-john-meyer-on-diamonds-gold-including-bluerock-petra-cora
11/08/21: https://www.voxmarkets.co.uk/articles/john-meyer-on-bluejay-bluerock-bushveld-alba-minerals-efe74e1
BBC: Catalytic converters https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/p09jl6c9
*SP Angel almost invariably acts as nomad or broker or nomad and broker to companies mentioned in the above videos and podcasts.
We speak more about these companies as we have a good understanding of their business and can talk with a greater degree of confidence. As ever, however, it should be noted that our views do not take into account the circumstances and needs of any particular investor or investor type. So enjoy the talks, but please do your own research, including other companies not mentioned by us but operating in the same areas, and get professional advice where appropriate.
No.1 in Copper: “The winner of the 2020 Fastmarkets Apex contest for copper was the team at SP Angel comprising John Meyer, Sergey Raevskiy and Simon Beardsmore, with an accuracy score of 93.8%”
No1. In Gold: “SP Angel’s trio took the top spot for the gold price prediction throughout the year, with an accuracy score of 97.59%”
The SP Angel team also ranked 1st in Palladium, 3rd in Tin and 5th in Silver in the fourth quarter of 2020
Analysts
John Meyer – John.Meyer@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0490
Simon Beardsmore – Simon.Beardsmore@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0484
Sergey Raevskiy –Sergey.Raevskiy@spangel.co.uk - 0203 470 0474
Joe Rowbottom – Joe.Rowbottom@spangel.co.uk - 0203 470 0486
Sales
Richard Parlons –Richard.Parlons@spangel.co.uk - 0203 470 0472
Abigail Wayne – Abigail.Wayne@spangel.co.uk - 0203 470 0534
Rob Rees – Rob.Rees@spangel.co.uk - 0203 470 0535
Grant Barker – Grant.Barker@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0471
SP Angel
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*SP Angel are the No1 integrated nomad and broker by number of mining brokerage clients on AIM according to the AIM Advisers Ranking Guide (joint brokerships excluded)
+SP Angel employees may have previously held, or currently hold, shares in the companies mentioned in this note.
Sources of commodity prices
Gold, Platinum, Palladium, Silver
BGNL (Bloomberg Generic Composite rate, London)
Gold ETFs, Steel
Bloomberg
Copper, Aluminium, Nickel, Zinc, Lead, Tin, Cobalt
LME
Oil Brent
ICE
Natural Gas, Uranium, Iron Ore
NYMEX
Thermal Coal
Bloomberg OTC Composite
Coking Coal
SSY
RRE
Steelhome
Lithium Carbonate, Ferro Vanadium, Tungsten, Spodumene, Ferro-Manganese, Graphite
Asian Metal
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SPA is registered in England and Wales with company number OC317049. The registered office address is Prince Frederick House, 35-39 Maddox Street, London W1S 2PP. SPA is authorised and regulated by the UK Financial Conduct Authority and is a Member of the London Stock Exchange plc.
MiFID II - Based on our analysis we have concluded that this note may be received free of charge by any person subject to the new MiFID II rules on research unbundling pursuant to the exemptions within Article 12(3) of the MiFID II Delegated Directive and FCA COBS Rule 2.3A.19.
A full analysis is available on our website here https://www.spangel.co.uk/legal-and-regulatory-notices.html. If you have any queries, feel free to contact our Compliance Officer, Tim Jenkins (tim.jenkins@spangel.co.uk).
SPA research ratings – Based on a time horizon of 12 months: Buy = Expected return of more than 15%, Hold = Expected return between -15% and +15%, Sell = Expected return of less than 15%
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