Ryanair Holdings PLC (LON:RYA) has a “compelling” summer 2022 outlook, according to Credit Suisse, but there are factors to consider over the coming months before greater clarity emerges.
The Swiss bank reckons capacity in 2022 will be 14% lower than 2019, while the following year it will rise 7%.
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Forecasts continue evolving due to the fluidity of airline capacity planning and a greater urgency among airlines to retire older widebodies while taking more time on the narrowbody side.
Moreover, the aircraft leasing market seems to have paused somewhat to await an international traffic recovery which would enable easier marketing of unwanted or unaffordable aircraft from Europe into markets such as Asia.
Analysts think that with short-haul leisure demand potentially fully rebounding in summer 2022, a capacity outlook 14% below summer 2019 would surely see a range of airlines change decisions or scramble to source additional capacity to participate as much as possible.
On Wednesday, Ryanair’s chief executive Michael O’Leary reiterated expectations for a near-breakeven performance in the year to March 2022.
In an interview with the Financial Times, he predicted a “seismic” 20-25% capacity reduction in the European short-haul market beyond the pandemic, which, together with much lower unit cots, would be likely to drive a strong profit recovery in 2023.
Credit Suisse holds an ‘outperform’ stance on the stock with target price of €17.91.
Shares rose 3% to €15.75 on Thursday late morning.