Whitbread PLC (LON:WTB) is expected to be the first hotel chain to recover thanks to its focus on domestic rather than international or business travel, according to JP Morgan.
However, sector-wide revenue per available room (RevPAR) is not expected to reach 2019 levels until 2024-25.
READ: Whitbread a ‘buy’, Intercontinental Hotels, On the Beach down to ‘underperform’ after Jefferies looks at vaccine effect
Analysts said the recovery will pan out in four phases: consumers will first search and book flights, then search and book accommodation.
At the moment we are in phase 2, booking flights, which has not yet translated into booking hotels as people are waiting for more visibility in terms of restrictions.
As a result, the US investment bank lowered full-year revenue expectations for Intercontinental Hotels PLC (LON:IHG) by 9%, while the stock has also more than priced in “a rather bullish travel recovery scenario” compared to its competitors. Whitbread, instead, is “priced to perfection”.
Shares in Whitbread shed 1% to 3,004p while Intercontinental Hotels added 1% to 4,625p on Tuesday late morning.