SP Angel . Morning View . Friday 22 01 21
Poor European economic data weigh on recovery hopes
Botswana Diamonds (LON:BOD) – Raising £363,000
Eurasia Mining* (LON:EUA) – West Kytlim Definitive Feasibility Study approved
Power Metal Resources* (LON:POW) – Three highly prospective gold projects acquired in Canada
Serabi Gold* (LON:SRB) – Initial drilling results from Sao Domingo
Vast Resources* (LON:VAST) – Baita Plai General Manager appointment
Nissan to source more EV batteries from UK to avoid EU tariffs.
Brexit has given competitive edge on car battery tariffs, says Nissan chief (The Guardian)
The Japanese automaker will source batteries for its EVs in Britain in order to avoid tariffs, with Brexit providing a new opportunity for Nissan’s factories in the Northeast.
Nissan’s COO Ashwani Gupta described Brexit-related problems at ports since the 1st of January as “peanuts” for the company- commenting “Brexit, which we thought is a risk ... has become an opportunity for Nissan,”
Following Britain’s departure from the EU, the trade deal struck avoided major disruption as well as a 10% levy on cars, provided they meet local content rules.
Nissan makes about 30,000 Leaf EVs at its Sunderland plant, mostly with a locally-sourced 40kWh battery, which remain tariff free. More power versions use an imported system, which will now be brough to Britain- creating further jobs in the process (reuters).
We are surprised to read such positive news On Brexit in the Guardian this morning.
We were also pleased to see Sir Kier Starmer, Labour leader agreeing with the Tory government on its Lockdown strategy, though it is refreshing to hear politicians agree for once.
Nissan says it will press ahead with the production of a new version of the Qashqai EV SUV this year.
Envision Group acquired Nissan and NEC’s jv Gigafactory project in Sunderland, UK earlier this year
The factory has planned capacity of 15GWh in 2024 rising to 28GWh of batteries in 2029
Recent Interviews:
VOX: 21/01/20 https://www.voxmarkets.co.uk/media/600a877b40dc224b8b88a983/?context=/listings/LON/SML/multimedia/
13/01/20 https://audioboom.com/posts/7770987-john-meyer-on-lithium-ironridge-res-savannah-res-kodal-mins-cornish-metals-bluerock-diamonds
IGTV: Is 2021 the start of the new COVID-Supercycle or will Lockdowns delay the recovery? https://youtu.be/7LO0tDc-pNc
As traders continue to bid up Tesla, is the EV sector approaching a bubble? https://youtu.be/LaDWBpTZ7SQ
Copper price rise: https://youtu.be/mdPXTup15VY
iiTV: The mining stock to own in 2021: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4x7SuSLQwCI&t=11s
Small Cap Mining Share tips for 2021 - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G_6RKAp91k4
Miners for a green industrial revolution - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rXlNS6JIDvg&t=3s
A Mining megatrend and three solid dividend stocks - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sH5r-QbTRwg
*SP Angel almost invariably acts as nomad or broker or nomad and broker to companies mentioned in the above videos and podcasts.
We speak more about these companies as we have a good understanding of their business and can talk with a greater degree of confidence. As ever, however, it should be noted that our views do not take into account the circumstances and needs of any particular investor or investor type. So enjoy the talks, one and all, but please do your own research, including other companies not mentioned by us but operating in the same areas, and get professional advice where appropriate.
Dow Jones Industrials -0.04% at 31,176
Nikkei 225 -0.44% at 28,631
HK Hang Seng -1.60% at 29,448
Shanghai Composite -0.40% at 3,607
Economics
US – Weekly jobless claims came back by 26k, partially undoing the sharp 142k increase in the previous week, although, a four week average, a less volatile measure, continued to increase suggesting a modest deterioration in the labour market.
Donald Trump’s administration declared that the repression and detention of more than 1m Muslim Uighurs in the northwestern Xinjiang region amounted to genocide.
In return, China placed 28 individuals including US former Secretary of State on the sanctions list.
The former officials on the list and their families would be barred form entering mainland China, Hong Kong and Macau while companies and institutions associate with named individuals would be restricted from conducting business in China.
The Biden administration criticised the move by China siding with former US cabinet officials in this regard.
Biden stimulus may pay out US$1,400 pay out to all US adults
A National Security Council spokesperson said China was trying to “play to partisan divides” but would be successful, according to FT.
Initial Jobless Claims: 900k v 926k (revised from 965k) previously and 935k est.
Continuing Claims (‘000): 5,054 v 5,181 (5,271) previously and 5,300 est.
Housing starts rose 5.8% to 1.669m in December vs 1.1% at 1.578m in November
Building permits rose 4.5% to 1.709m units vs 1.635m units
Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index saw strong performance at 26.5 in Janyary vs 9.1 in December
Eurozone - Regional flash PMIs pulled back in January dragged down further losses in the services sector reflecting new lockdown measures implemented in the region.
Business activity fell for a third consecutive month at an accelerated pace as manufacturing sector showed the slowest growth since the recovery started and services’ output contracted at the second-fastest rates since May.
Business activity growth in Germany waned to the weakest since the recovery began in July, but the sustained expansion contrasted with output falling at quicker rates in France and the rest of the eurozone as a whole.
Employment dropped for an 11th consecutive month in the Eurozone, although modest increases in employment were registered in both France and Germany helping to ease the overall rate of decline tot het lowest level since the pandemic started.
“A double-dip recession for the eurozone economy is looking increasingly inevitable as tighter COVID19 restrictions took a further toll on businesses in January,” Markit commented on the data.
“Some encouragement comes from the downturn being less severe than in the spring of last year, reflecting the ongoing relative resilience of manufacturing, rising demand for exported goods and the lockdown measures having been less Stringent on average than last year.”
Eurozone Markit Manufacturing PMI: 54.7 v 55.2 in December and 54.4 est.
Eurozone Markit Services PMI: 45.0 v 46.4 in December and 44.5 est.
Eurozone Markit Composite PMI: 47.5 v 49.1 in December and 47.6 est.
Germany
Markit Manufacturing PMI: 57.0 v 58.3 in December and 57.2 est.
Markit Services PMI: 46.8 v 47.0 in December and 45.0 est.
Markit Composite PMI: 50.8 v 52.0 in December and 50.0 est.
France
Markit Manufacturing PMI: 51.5 v 51.1 in December and 50.5 est.
Markit Services PMI: 46.5 v 49.1 in December and 48.4 est.
Markit Composite PMI: 47.0 v 49.5 in December and 49.0 est.
French business confidence rose to 98.0 in January vs 94.0 in December
Japan – December steel production falls 3.3% to 7.53mt
Pig iron production fell 6.2% to 5.64mt
Guinea - Abdoulaye Magassoub retained as mines minister for another term
Magassouba was first appointed to the position in January 2016, with Bauxite exports increasing to over 60mtpa from 22mtpa in 2015.
China’s trade sanctions have cost Australia $3bn in lost exports
Sanctions imposed on Australian commodities including coal, copper and lobsters cost $3bn in lost exports last year, a relatively small impact- indicating there is little economic need for the country to bow to Beijing’s pressure.
The relationship between the two nations has been deteriorating since 2018, when Canberra banned Huawei from its 5G network, and in 2020 when the government called for an independent probe into the origins of the pandemic.
China’s state-aided spending on infrastructure meant it was reliant on Australian iron ore, sending prices to multi-year highs and resulting in huge profits for Australian miners.
Purchases by China of Australian iron ore rose almost $10bn last year, with China having little alternative than buying Australian ore in order to keep costs low for its huge steel industry.
UK – PM Johnson did not rule for the third lockdown to last until summer saying that the UK faces “what is unquestionably going to be a tough few weeks ahead”.
The latest UK data showed 1,290 people died from COVID-19 in the last 24 hours, taking the total to 95,829, the highest among other European nations.
Meanwhile, tightening of lockdown measures saw a sharp deterioration in PMIs in January highlighting risks of a recurring recession.
“Services have once again been especially hard hit, but manufacturing has seen growth almost stall, blamed on a cocktail of COVID-19 and Brexit, which has led to increasingly widespread supply delays, rising costs and falling exports,” Markit reports.
Job shedding in the private sector accelerated in January.
Markit Manufacturing PMI: 52.9 v 57.5 in December and 53.6 est.
Markit Services PMI: 38.8 v 49.4 in December and 45.0 est.
Markit Composite PMI: 40.6 v 50.4 in December and 45.5 est.
CBI business optimism index fell to -22 for Q1 vs 0 in Q4.
Spain – UK holidaymakers banned from entering Spain till the end of summer at the earliest
The Spanish Prime Minister has said visitors will not be welcome till after the summer
Italy – Authorities are expecting delays to its coronavirus vaccination programme in the coming week due to a drop in vaccine deliveries from manufacturers.
The nation may be facing an early general election as Giuseppe Conte struggles to assemble a workable coalition.
Russia – Navalny video of Putin’s palace watched by >54m viewers
It might not force any change and we really don’t like the wallpaper but it is refreshing to see a politician’s palace outed in such spectacular fashion.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n8J2dW-QYQY&feature=youtu.be&ab_channel=DWNews
We look forward to seeing the inside of President Erdogan’s £385m 1,000 room palace sometime soon.
Seems every dictator wants to build a palace these days.
For miners tempted to build their own legacy palaces we highlight the long lasting legacy of the sports and social club built for the Rio Tinto mine in Andalucia, Spain.
The club served local community well long after the mine closure and helped to keep the community together ready for the mines reopening by Atalaya Mining in 2016.
Currencies US$1.2155/eur vs 1.2117eur yesterday. Yen 103.62/$ vs 103.55/$. SAr 15.077/$ vs 14.850/$. $1.366/gbp vs $1.371/gbp. 0.773/aud vs 0.776/aud. CNY 6.478/$ vs 6.465/$.
Commodity News
Precious metals:
Gold US$1,860/oz vs US$1,870/oz yesterday
Gold ETFs 107.2moz vs US$107.2moz yesterday
Platinum US$1,108/oz vs US$1,116/oz yesterday
Palladium US$2,366/oz vs US$2,388/oz yesterday
Silver US$25.46/oz vs US$25.86/oz yesterday
Base metals:
Copper US$ 7,944/t vs US$8,058/t yesterday
Aluminium US$ 1,992/t vs US$1,996/t yesterday
Nickel US$ 18,045/t vs US$18,420/t yesterday
Zinc US$ 2,669/t vs US$2,744/t yesterday
Lead US$ 2,017/t vs US$2,044/t yesterday
Tin US$ 21,925/t vs US$22,100/t yesterday
Energy:
Oil US$55.7/bbl vs US$55.7/bbl yesterday - Please see SP Angel’s Oil Market outlook for 2021: https://youtu.be/T222JHGzokI
Oil prices have risen by 10% since the end of 2020 and 8% since the OPEC+ meeting two weeks ago, but the rally has nothing to do with the short-term oil demand outlook
It has been almost exclusively due to the decision of Saudi Arabia—the world’s top oil exporter and OPEC’s de facto leader—to cut an additional 1MMbopd from its production in the first quarter.
Saudi Arabia, as well as major forecasters, expected oil demand in Q1 to continue to struggle as major economies in Europe and now parts of China are under renewed lockdowns to fight the spread of COVID-19
Crude has held near $53 a barrel in New York with the nation working to roll out vaccinations as it struggles to contain the pandemic.
Still, prices remain supported by the OPEC+ alliance’s continued production curbs.
OPEC+ production cuts are markets’ most supportive factor at current prices and now appear to be running ahead of coronavirus-related demand uncertainty
The Saudi ‘generosity’ signals that the Kingdom is willing to forgo short-term market share in order to prop up prices amid weak immediate demand, tighten the market faster, and wait for the opportunity to ramp up production once oil demand rebounds at some point in the second half of 2021
Yet, in the process, the Saudis could incentivize increased activity in the US shale patch, which could abandon the promised restraint in spending, and increase production
Higher-than-currently-estimated U.S. oil supply could cap oil price gains and ruin the Saudi attempts to over-tighten the market
Natural Gas US$2.498/mmbtu vs US$2.498/mmbtu yesterday
Natural gas prices were lower yesterday ahead of today’s inventory report from the Department of Energy
Expectations are for a 164Bcf draw according to survey provider Estimize
According to the National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration, the weather is expected to be warmer than normal throughout the mid-west for the next 6-10 and 8-14 days. Demand rose in the latest week
Natural gas prices continue to drop off as the cold weather that was expected to move into the US failed to materialise
While the weather is expected to be cooler than normal across the west coast over the next 6-10 days, it’s expected to turn warmer than normal across most of the mid-west during the next 8-14 days
The EIA estimates that natural gas consumption was down 2.5% year on year in 2020
The spot liquefied natural gas (LNG) prices in north Asia jumped to record highs last week, while the key price marker in Europe, the Dutch Title Transfer Facility (TTF), rallied to the highest in more than two years
The natural gas markets at the start of 2021 look completely different from the beginning of last year, when milder weather and the pandemic hit to demand had dragged natural gas prices down to historic lows
This winter season, a rebound in Asian natural gas demand, supply issues at major LNG exporters, logistics issues at the Panama Channel, soaring tanker rates, and last but not least, the cold snap from Madrid to Tokyo, are pushing gas prices higher
Bulk:
Iron ore 62% Fe spot (cfr Tianjin) US$167.6/t vs US$165.1/t
Chinese steel rebar 25mm US$664.5/t vs US$663.6/t
Thermal coal (1st year forward cif ARA) US$68.0/t vs US$69.3/t
Coking coal swap Australia FOB US$148.0/t vs US$140.0/t
Other:
Cobalt LME 3m US$38,520/t vs US$37,520/t
NdPr Rare Earth Oxide (China) US$70,463/t vs US$70,226/t - Lynas to build commercial rare earth separation facility in the US
Lynas has entered into an agreement with the US government to build a commercial light, rare earths separation plant in the US.
The company will collaborate with the US Department of Defense to build the plant, which is expected to be located in Texas.
The plant is expected to produce 5,000tpa of rare earth products, including around 1,250tpa of NdPr.
Output from the plant will serve both the Defense Industrial Base and the commercial market for rare earth products, including the EV industry (Argus Media).
Lithium carbonate 99% (China) US$9,724/t vs US$9,513/t
Ferro Vanadium 80% FOB (China) US$30.2/kg vs US$30.2/kg
Ferro-Manganese high carbon 78% Mn US$1,490/t vs US$1,430/t
Tungsten APT European US$235-240/mtu vs US$235-240/mtu
Graphite flake 94% C, -100 mesh, fob China US$530/t vs US$530/t
Graphite spherical 99.95% C, 15 microns, fob China US$2,475/t vs US$2,475/t
Spodumene 6% Li2O min, cif (China) US$395/t vs US$380/t
Battery News
New York to build new power lines
New York state is building hundreds of new high voltage power lines, the kind that push clean-energy advocates would like to see copied nationwide.
Long distance transmission is an essential part of strategies to replace fossil-fuel power plants with non-emitting sources. Larger solar and onshore wind farms sit on rural land and need a conduit to cities.
Last week New York opened bidding for at least three transmission projects including a 330 mile running from Canadian border to New York City.
New York awarded Equinor and its partner BP to develop two wind projects totalling 2.5GW of capacity in waters off the Atlantic coast. They will be connected to land by an undersea cable
Onshore, they are installing new wires in existing transmission corridors or burying them.
Upgrading Solar Panels on the ISS
Boeing company Spectrolab will produce new XTJ Prime solar cells for the International Space Station that are capable of producing twice the power in just half the area covered by the existing arrays.
They will be 63 feet by 20 feet and will together produce more than 120 kilowatts of electricity form the suns energy.
The new arrays will use a technology called Roll Out Solar Arrays (ROSA), developed by Deployable Space Systems. The solar arrays are rolled up in a canister and then unfurled, or rolled out, once in space.
Company News
Botswana Diamonds (LON:BOD) 0.65p, Mkt Cap £5.2m – Raising £363,000
Botswana Diamonds reports that it is raising £363,000 via the issue of an additional 60.5m shares at a price of 0.6p/share to help fund its continuing exploration in Botswana and South Africa.
Each new share has an additional warrant attached which entitles subscription for a further new share, also priced at 0.6p/share for a period of 2 years from 22nd January 2021.
The new shares represent approximately 7.7% of the enlarged capital of Botswana Diamonds.
Directors, James Finn and James Campbell are participating in the issue, with Mr. Finn subscribing for approximately 4.59m of the new shares taking his interest in the company to 4.38% while Mr. Campbell has subscribed for approximately 0.4m of the new shares taking his holding to 0.17% of Botswana Diamonds
Eurasia Mining* (LON:EUA) 30.18p, Mkt Cap £8330m – West Kytlim Definitive Feasibility Study approved
Eurasia Mining report the approval of their Definitive Feasibility Study for the West Kytlim mine by the Russian State Committee on Reserves.
The DFS allows for production of PGMs from several open pits and for the moving of equipment between mine sites for consistent production.
PGM Production at multiple locations on an all-year basis is approved with pre-stripping, earthmoving and stockpiling through the frozen winter months.
West Kytlim produced 2,122oz in 2019 and 5,132oz in 2018.
Eurasia produced 1,525oz of platinum through the summer despite delay to the issue of the 2020 mining permit
Management are getting ready for the 2021 mining season at West Kytlim due to the time taken for permission from the forestry authorities.
Eurasia has acquired additional equipment to enable the mining of multiple open pits to raise production levels with preparatory work already started.
*SP Angel act as Nomad and Broker to Eurasia Mining
Power Metal Resources* (LON:POW) 2.8p, Mkt cap £28.6m – Three highly prospective gold projects acquired in Canada
Power Metal has signed an agreement to acquire a 100% interest in a package of three gold prospects located in the Hemlo area of Ontario, Canada.
The Project includes three contiguous exploration projects Roger Lake, Olga Lake and Dotted East which together cover an area of 25.8km2 centred approximately 29km north-east of Barrick Gold Corporation's Hemlo Mine which has produced more than 21Moz of gold to date.
The project represents an early stage exploration opportunity for prospective gold and base metal mineralisation, situated on the Hemlo-Schreiber Greenstone Belt.
The project consists of 122 single mining claims, vended as three packages and are valid to between July 2022 to 12 December 2022 upon which they can be renewed on an annual basis.
Power Metal’s license area is located directly adjacent west of the Palladium One Mining Tyko Ni-Cu-PGE Project where a 2020 drilling programme intersected massive sulphides grading up to 7.5m @ 4.5% Ni, 2.9% Cu & 1.0g/t PGE from 5.3 meters down-hole2 over a mineralised target striking 270m.
Adjacent to the east is Panther Metal’s Dotted Lake property where recent surface sampling confirmed high grade gold (18.9g/t Au) at surface.
The cost of acquisition of the Project is CAD$120,000 (£69,130) of which CAD$60,000 will be paid in cash and the remaining $60,000 through the issue to the Vendors of 1,152,233 new Ordinary Shares of 0.1p each in the Company at an issue price of 3.0 pence per share. The cash costs for the acquisition will be funded from existing cash.
The Vendors of the project are established local prospectors who will continue to work with Power Metal in the local management of the Project, along with development and exploration.
The Vendors will retain a 2% NSR in respect of the Exploration Properties. Power Metal may purchase 1% in total of this NSR at any time by making a cash payment of CAD$500,000 to the Vendors.
Preliminary exploration work planned for the project will include both remote sensing data, ground-based fieldwork and geophysics in order to define targets for future drill testing.
*SP Angel act as Nomad and Broker to Power Metal Resources
Serabi Gold* (LON:SRB) – 95.5p, Mkt Cap £53.7m – Initial drilling results from Sao Domingo
Serabi Gold reports that it has now completed three diamond drill holes at the Toucano prospect located approximately 8km west of its Sao Chico mine and within the recently acquired Sao Domingo project area.
At this stage, the Toucano prospect as been identified over around 600m and among the results from the first holes Serabi Gold highlights:
An intersection of 0.55m at an average grade of 11.3g/t gold from a depth of 78.3m in hole 20-SD-001; and
An intersection of 1.4m averaging 5.01g/t gold from a depth of XXm in hole 20-SD-002; and
An intersection of 5.00m averaging 24.09g/t cold from 74m depth in hole 20-SD-003
The company says that its drilling at Toucano has been backed up by partial channel sampling of surface mineralisation which includes sample lengths of up to 8m and grades ranging between 1.05gt and 5.99g/t gold as well as 13 “promising … [surface rock chip samples] … including gold values of 2.36g/t to 513.01g/t gold, averaging 95g/t gold.”
CEO, Mike Hodgson says that “In addition to Toucano, Sao Domingos hosts many prospects where the artisanal miners have successfully mined oxide ore and we have started an initial reconnaissance programme of rock chip sampling over the property. The results have been equally encouraging and we will be following up on the best of these in the coming months”.
As well as results from Sao Domingo, the company has also reported results from its continuing surface and underground drilling programme at Sao Chico where it is targeting a new mineralised structure, “the Julia Vein, which lies north of the main orebody currently being mined”. Among the surface results reported today are intersections of:
0.55m averaging 12.79g/t gold from a depth of 175.95m in hole 20-SC-177; and
1.50m averaging 7.23g/t gold from a depth of 191.00m in hole 20-SC-179; and
0.40m averaging 7.45g/t gold from a depth of 225.85m in hole 20-SC-183; and
0.65m averaging 12.31g/t gold from a depth of 269.35m in hole 20-SC-187
Underground results from Sao Chico highlighted in today’s announcement include:
1.85m averaging 8.62g/t gold in hole 20-SCUD-370; and
5.90m averaging 60.09g/t gold in hole 20-SCUD-377; and
1.92m averaging 38.89g/t gold in hole 20-SCUD-381; and
4.20m averaging 27.12g/t gold in hole 20-SCUD-386
Mr. Hodgson commented on the encouraging results from the Julia Vein and explained that it “was identified when the mine initially opened in 2015, but only in the central part of the mine, and at that time, did not yield particularly encouraging results. As a consequence, the mine development continued to focus on the Main Zone. It is only now while we have been investigating the main orebody to the west and beyond the current mine limits, that we have intersected the Julia Zone, but this time demonstrating mineable widths and grades”.
He went on to indicate that “This recent success highlights the possibility that the Julia Zone is a parallel zone to the main orebody and potentially extending along the current 600 metre strike length of the Main Zone of the Sao Chico ore body and could well extend to the east as well. This opens up the potential to develop the mine northwards.”
Conclusion: Serabi Gold reports encouraging drilling results from the Youcano propsect and explains that recent drilling on the Julia Vein to the north of the Main Zone at Sao Chico is proving to be more significantly mineralised that originally thought holding out the prospect that mineralisation in the Sao Chico area could be more extensive than previously envisaged
*An SP Angel analyst has visited the Serabi’s gold mining operations in Brazil
Vast Resources* (LON:VAST) 0.13p, Mkt Cap £26m – Baita Plai General Manager appointment
The Company appointed Marcus Brewster as the new General Manager at the Baita Plai Polymetallic operation in Romania.
Marcus brings 24 years of open pit and underground mining experience having previously held senior operations management positions at a number of international mining companies including Hummingbird Resources, Endeavour Mining, Nordgold and Gold Fields.
He holds an MSc in Mine Engineering & MSc in Mine Geology from the Camborne School of Mines and a BSc in Geology and Environmental Geography from Brunel University London as well as a Certificate in Project Management from Lancaster University.
Separately, the Company reported that production and sales of concentrate continue in line with expectations.
*SP Angel acts as Broker to Vast Resources
Analysts
John Meyer – – 0203 470 0490
Simon Beardsmore – Simon.Beardsmore@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0484
Sergey Raevskiy –Sergey.Raevskiy@spangel.co.uk - 0203 470 0474
Joe Rowbottom – Joe.Rowbottom@spangel.co.uk - 0203 470 0486
Sales
Richard Parlons –Richard.Parlons@spangel.co.uk - 0203 470 0472
Abigail Wayne – Abigail.Wayne@spangel.co.uk - 0203 470 0534
Rob Rees – Rob.Rees@spangel.co.uk - 0203 470 0535
Grant Barker – Grant.Barker@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0471
SP Angel
Prince Frederick House
35-39 Maddox Street London
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*SP Angel are the No1 integrated nomad and broker by number of mining brokerage clients on AIM according to the AIM Advisers Ranking Guide (joint brokerships excluded)
+SP Angel employees may have previously held, or currently hold, shares in the companies mentioned in this note.
Sources of commodity prices
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Gold ETFs, Steel
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Copper, Aluminium, Nickel, Zinc, Lead, Tin, Cobalt
LME
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NYMEX
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