Comments of the Day
25 November 2020
Video commentary for November 24th 2020
A link to today's video commentary is posted in the Subscriber's Area.
Some of the topics covered include: relief at prospect of US smooth transition of power, gold testing MA on increasing global risk appetite, recovery candidates continue to outperform, oil hits new highs, platinum and copper firm, Dollar weak, stock markets outside of megacap tech strong.
Email of the day on reflation candidates and whether it is too late
Eoin, the reflation trade seems to be well under way and you have repeatedly viewed commodities (both industrial and soft) to be an attractive investment for a lengthy period of time and at times, you have mentioned a possible investment vehicle. I suggest that you present those ETF/ETC and other funds/shares or a combination which you believe will best cover this area at the present time. I would think that many in the collective will appreciate getting such a list from you.
This also against the background that gold, PMs in general and PM miners seem to have to work off their overbought condition and for the time being, don't seem to be needed as safe havens as worldwide growth is picking up and neither inflation nor systemic risk are perceived as major issues at this time.
Therefore, in my view industrial and soft commodities should be the better investment compared to PMs for some time to come.
Dear Eoin, I hope you and the family are well. This "rotation" trade seems to have run quite far and I sense a general frothiness to markets, (apart from gold of course). Would, you go with the crowd here hoping for further gains? Or would you wait for a pull-back, (which today feels like it may never come) and maybe nibble at a few out of favour stocks/themes? Best wishes,
Interesting picking up on your views regarding soft commodities. Some directly investable ideas seem hard to track down related to this theme in the UK market; really appreciate your suggestions as to how to invest in this and am sure others would be interested as well.
In general, the markets seem to be moving very rapidly at present, e.g. Royal Dutch, +5%, Glencore +5% etc, so your guidance about how best to play these trends that you are identifying is hugely helpful in your day to day notes and commentary.
It would be useful to have a list of ETFs to play a number of different themes: 1) COVID recovery candidates like airlines and hospitality, 2) value, 3) small caps, 4) general Asian exposure.
Thank you all for these questions which highlight the emotional difficulty of buying breakouts. When sectors and indices trade out to new highs there is always a temptation to think they may have already gone too far. The big question then is to gauge whether the animating factor behind the breakout has the potential to persist.
Bitcoin Mania Grips Retail Traders in Flashback to Fall 2017
This article by Claire Ballentine and Edward Robinson for Bloomberg may be of interest to subscribers. Here is a section:
“FOMO is slowly kicking in. We are only just beginning to see some of our retail clients borrowing against their Bitcoin to buy more Bitcoin and that will ultimately propel the rally well into the $20,000s and beyond,” said Antoni Trenchev, co-founder and managing partner of Nexo in London, which bills itself as the world’s biggest crypto lender.
Trading got so intense overnight in XRP that U.S. cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase crashed, according to media reports. That sparked a plunge in the coin after the massive rally took it to a record.
Coinbase’s official status page says that its website is operational, and that an incident on Monday at 10 p.m. has been resolved. A spokesperson from Coinbase said they are looking into Bloomberg News’ request for comment.
While Main Street investors may be dreaming about hitting a jackpot, more seasoned market veterans remain wary about the sudden boom. The crypto world is notoriously opaque, and unlike stocks or bonds, which are rooted in economic and business fundamentals, getting a read on what makes Bitcoin tick can be impossible even for the savviest investors
“Whenever I see mainstream media attention like this, that usually leads to a sell-off,” said Kevin Murcko, the founder and CEO of CoinMetro, an Estonia-based crypto exchange. “The big fish need to lay off risk so they open the floodgates to bring in retail guys to dump on. Not sure this is the case this time around but it seems a bit suspect.”
Back in 2017, legions of college kids went home for Thanksgiving and convinced their parents investing in bitcoin was a good idea. The price jumped from $8000 to over $1900 in the ultimate Santa Claus rally. It then gave up the whole advance by the beginning of February.
Experimental cancer vaccine passes animal tests, moves to human trials
This article by Rich Haridy for Newatlas.com may be of interest to subscribers. Here is a section:
"We are excited to begin testing of this vaccine in the United States to offer new hope to patients with lung and other cancers,” adds Kaumaya. “Reaching this point where we can transition our findings from the lab to the clinic speaks to the perseverance and dedication of Imugene's clinical and research team – including our research lab staff at Ohio State – to build on the clinical and commercial potential.”
The new research was published in the journal Oncoimmunology and the video below offers a more detailed explanation of how the novel cancer vaccine works.
Cancer vaccines are already very successful in preventing cervical cancers. A shot to prevent some forms of lung cancer would be a gamechanger for many individuals. The question is not if buy when these new technologies reach commercial utility because the profit prize from success is so large.
Eoin's personal portfolio - new trading position opened October 21st
One of the most commonly asked questions by subscribers is how to find details of my open traders. In an effort to make it easier I will simply repost the latest summary daily until there is a change.