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Comments of the Day
08 October 2020
Video commentary for October 7th 2020
Eoin Treacy's view
A link to today's video commentary is posted in the Subscriber's Area.
Some of the topics discussed include: Transportation Average at new high, stocks rebounds, dollar eases, precious metals steady, Yen eases, Nikkei firm, Renminbi firm.
Morgan Stanley's Sheets Goes All-In on V-Shaped Recovery Trades
This article by Cecile Gutscher for Bloomberg may be of interest to subscribers. Here is a section:
“The glass half-full view of stimulus talks is if you don’t get it today you’ll get it tomorrow from whomever wins the election,” Sheets said in an interview. “This V-shaped recovery is still intact.”
His conviction that growth will continue unabated is in contrast with other strategists who say the U.S. is facing a multitude of risks. Lawmakers have been deadlocked for weeks on the details of a stimulus package and President Donald Trump surprised allies with a unilateral call on Tuesday to halt talks on a deal.
Sheets’s recommendations are mirrored in hedge funds positioned ever more aggressively for a steeper U.S. yield curve, often seen as a bet on reflation. The latest data shows speculative net short positions in long bond futures have hit a record, while net long positions on 10-year Treasuries have climbed to their highest since October 2017.
Eoin Treacy's view
Brinksmanship does not mean an agreement will fail to be reached. Regardless of which way the US election goes, the next administration has an interest in continuing to support the recovery. Fiscal stimulus will be a big part of that.
High Conviction Calls Amid Cross Currents
Thanks to a subscriber for this report from UBS which may be of interest. Here is a section on Amazon:
Eoin Treacy's view
A link to the full report is posted in the Subscriber's Area.
The fourth quarter is going to bring two strong sales events for Amazon. Prime Day usually occurs in July but was delayed because of the pandemic. It will now take place on the 13th. That might just kick off the beginning of the holiday season. Considering the extent of excess savings this year is likely to deliver a bumper holiday season for Amazon’s retail operation.
Email of the day on my investments
Hi Eoin, could you please state what your APPROXIMATE price objective is for XXX to know whether you see this more as an opportunistic trade or more of fundamental return to e.g., the 200dma? Thank you
Eoin Treacy's view
Thank you for this question. I view my trades as opportunistic and my investments as holdings in a long-term portfolio.
Eoin's personal portfolio: investment position increased October 2nd
Eoin Treacy's view
One of the most commonly asked questions by subscribers is how to find details of my open traders. In an effort to make it easier I will simply repost the latest summary daily until there is a change.
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