Beazley PLC (LON:BEZ) said its forecast for first-party COVID-19 claims had doubled to US$340mln from US$170mln, but that assumes “a resumption to some form of normality in the second half of 2021”.
If that were not the case, the company expects at least another US$50mln of further claims net of reinsurance.
The Lloyds of London insurer made the first estimate in April on assumption that business activity would begin to resume in September, leading to normalisation in the levels of contingency claims.
As its book of business is heavily weighted to the US and UK, with the largest segment being conferences, its clients are still struggling to resume operations amid restrictions.
Conferences that were postponed earlier in the year are now being cancelled as are ones due to take place in the final quarter of this year, prompting the firm to increase loss estimates.
It also anticipates further claims based on its exposure for events in 2021.
The FTSE 250-listed firm said it continues to see improving growth prospects across its portfolios, mostly driven by continuing rate improvements, with an overall rate change of 13% at the end of August.
Overall growth for 2020 is estimated to be around 15%, remaining in double-digits for 2021.
Investments returned US$136m or 2.2% up to the end of August.
"We believe volume growth is likely to be modest and some restraint will become evident in due course; we also doubt there will be excess capital available to resume the dividend in 2020," analysts at Peel Hunt commented.
Shares tumbled 14% to 336.8p on Tuesday morning.
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