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The Markets
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Financial Services

UK inflation unexpectedly rises to 1% as clothing prices hold up, rail users suffer again

Core inflation, which excludes food, cigarettes and alcohol, rose to 1.8% from 1.4%

UK inflation rose to 1% in July from 0.6% in June as clothing and petrol prices rose following the easing of coronavirus restrictions, the Office of National Statistics said today.

For rail commuters still travelling to work, the rise in price in prices will mean a higher than expected increase in season tickets and some rail fares.

Season ticket prices are benchmarked against the Retail Prices Index, which rose to 1.6% from 1.1%.

More galling for rail commuters is that the Bank of England expects inflation to turn negative next month as the impact of the recent cut in VAT on eating out kicks in and rises in petrol prices last year drop out.

"Inflation has risen, in part, due to the largest monthly pump price increase in nearly a decade, as international oil prices rose from their lows earlier this year," said Jonathan Athow, deputy national statistician for economic statistics at the ONS.

Private dental treatment, physiotherapy and haircuts and more protective equipment to ward off the virus also contributed to the rise, said the statistics office.

Core inflation, which excludes food, cigarettes and alcohol, rose to 1.8% from 1.4% or higher expected than said economists and points to economic activity picking up a little.

James Smith at ING said a much less pronounced fall in clothing prices than normally seen at this time of year seemed to be the main culprit behind the higher figure.

“But the combination of VAT changes and the 'Eat Out to Help Out' scheme means we're set for a big downward move in August, while the rise in unemployment means domestically-generated inflation is set to remain muted.”

The EY ITEM Club, meanwhile, suggests, suspects inflation could get down to a low of around 0.2% over the next few months as price-conscious consumers, excess capacity and limited earnings take effect.

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