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Comments of the Day
13 August 2020
Video commentary for August 12th 2020
Eoin Treacy's view
A link to today's video commentary is posted in the Subscriber's Area.
Some of the topics discussed include: precious metals pause following yesterday's weakness, emerging markets are pivotel point in recovery, Dollar remains weak, Europe and Japan firm, Industrial metals steady, bond yields firm again.
Email of the day on stops and my personal portfolio:
Why did you not share the fact that you had stop losses at USD 2,000 for gold and USD 27.50 for silver? I consider this just as important as sharing the information on the purchase and sale of your positions. Especially in light of the fact that your mantra has been for a long time that PMs are "potentially due for a consolidation" which leaves your subscribers pretty much in the dark of how you intend to act if and when the "potential consolidation" sets in and what in your personal view is the right way of (re-)acting. Sharing only ex-post the information that you actually had stop losses in place AFTER they are executed feels more like " adding insult to injury".
I wondered whether you can communicate in earlier fashion to your subscribers when you are trading. You don’t trade often, but with high conviction when you do. After seemingly having high conviction in a potential decade long bull market in Gold, I was a little surprised to learn you’d had a tight stop on your Gold position, this exiting at $2,000. Only the day before you were talking about Gold having lots of room to consolidate. With the decline moving through $1,900 temporarily at least, it seems you were right to sell, but I wonder how we as investors can access that critical data point in more real time. By the time we learned of it this morning, Gold had already moved through $1,900. Similarly, Silver experienced the same sort of fall, only steeper given its more volatile nature.
Eoin Treacy's view
Thank you both these emails which offer me an opportunity to clarify some points both with the provision of my personal portfolio trades and my approach to profiting from the unfolding bull market in precious metals.
My personal portfolio is provided as a public service not as a model portfolio or as a recommendation for what you should do. Inevitably some subscribers will follow my trades but these are not recommendations. In fact, we have never made recommendations because who would they be for? The reality is subscribers come from all walks of life and financial means; ranging from private individuals right up to sovereign wealth funds. Advice for one person would in no way be appropriate for another.
Email of the day - on returning customers
Dear Eoin and team, I would like to thank you very much for the big difference you have made to my confidence in advising my clients, since I re-joined the service. If only I could find a way of explaining the benefit to my professional contacts! All the very best
Eoin Treacy's view
Thank you for your kind words and welcome back. The one thing I would highlight for prospective subscribers is that in the evolving global tapestry of events, some big picture perspective is likely to be beneficial.
Email of the day on Vietnam and coronavirus
Dear Eoin, I've enjoyed reading your words for quite a while. Today is the first time I am writing you. You included a snip-it from Martin Spring suggesting a genetic component to how people from Southeast Asia avoid infections. You also suggested that it might be potential herd immunity from previous outbreaks.
As a person who has lived in Hanoi for 12 years, I wanted to share my insights with you.
First, and foremost, the government was very quick to shut things down here. The border with China closed even before we had our first case in country. Given the history with previous outbreaks, the government knew enough to act swiftly.
Second, lots of propaganda. In every neighborhood there are announcements about covid. On TV you are reminded constantly about covid. Every time you call someone, they insert a message between the time you press the button and it starts to ring. That message reminds everyone to wear a mask, wash your hands, keep your distance, etc.
Third, people here are more compliant. Conflict is frowned upon. The government says do it, you do it. They say you will protect your parents and grandparents, so you do it out of respect. Young people often avoid wearing helmets on their motorbikes (required by law) but they all wear masks.
Fourth, and something I have not seen stated before, is the Vietnamese language itself. Vietnamese is an under-aspirated language. That is, people breath much less when they speak. In the English- speaking world, sometimes we feel others spit on us accidentally while they are speaking. This does not happen in Vietnam because of the way the language works.
In short, there are plenty of reasons why Vietnam, in particular, has been lucky. Of course, we just started our second wave and now have 16 deaths. Still, I see no reason to believe that there is a genetic component to Vietnam's good fortune. Keep up the great work. Even those of us who never write to you find great value in your insights. Best regards, J.
Eoin Treacy's view
Thank you for this informative email and your kind words. The Vietnamese response has been very impressive and I in no way wished to disregard the Herculean efforts they have made to contain infection. I did however wish to draw some attention to the question of where the disease in fact originated.
Eoin's personal portfolio: last updated on August 12th
Eoin Treacy's view
One of the most commonly asked questions by subscribers is how to find details of my open traders. In an effort to make it easier I will simply repost the latest summary daily until there is a change. I'll change the title to the date of publication of new details so you will know when the information was provided.
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