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The Big Cycle of the United States and the Dollar, Part 2

Some of the topics discussed include: Dollar weakens but Renminbi weakens more, gold, silver and gold shares extend breakouts, stock market quiet but China weakens. India eases, geopolitical tensions rise but tech earnings positive with Tesla's positive surprise. 

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Comments of the Day

23 July 2020

 

Video commentary for July 22nd 2020

 

Eoin Treacy's view

A link to today's video commentary is posted in the Subscriber's Area. 

Some of the topics discussed include: Dollar weakens but Renminbi weakens more, gold, silver and gold shares extend breakouts, stock market quiet but China weakens. India eases, geopolitical tensions rise but tech earnings positive with Tesla's positive surprise. 

 

Email of the day on thematic investing

Congrats on your positioning for this continued rerating of all things precious metals related. Today I had a bit of an epiphany. I was re-reading Jim Collins Good to Great, and in particular about the Hedgehog Principle (lasering in on one thing and making sure its very well understood and its done better than anyone else does it), compared to the Fox which is more scatty, and tends to be here, there and everywhere, often distracted.

There's a lesson in there for investors too. For years I have been a Hedgehog, owning 12 of the world's best companies each with significant competitive advantages in their respective fields, and done very well. The last four months though have seen me be a Fox, trading more than I should have, often in stocks I have never traded in before, and often the volatile market has shaken my conviction. As you might expect, I have done far less well and often felt trapped in no-man's land. I've decided you're a Hedgehog, and I expect that your strong focus on all things precious metals related will continue to stand you in good stead, and hopefully me too now that I've finally had that Eureka moment!

 

Eoin Treacy's view

Thank you for your kind sentiment and I had to admit that, like a hedgehog, I can be prickly from time to time. The bigger point here is that from an investor’s perspective it is often best to try and identify a secular trend early and ride it as long as it stays consistent.

 

Eoin's personal portfolio: stock market long closed 22/7

Eoin Treacy's view

One of the most commonly asked questions by subscribers is how to find details of my open traders. In an effort to make it easier I will simply repost the latest summary daily until there is a change. I'll change the title to the date of publication of new details so you will know when the information was provided.

 

The Big Cycle of the United States and the Dollar, Part 2

This latest chapter of Ray Dalio’s book includes a number of interesting titbits to chew over. Here is a section:

The US dollar accounts for over 50% of reserves held and has unwaveringly remained the primary reserve currency since 1945, especially after it replaced gold as the most-held reserve asset after there was a move to a fiat monetary system.  European currencies have remained steady at 20-25% since the late 1970s, the yen and sterling are around 5%, and the Chinese RMB is only 2%, which is far below its share of world trade and world economic size, for reasons we will delve into in the Chinese section of this book.  As has been the case with the Dutch guilder and the British pound, the status of the US dollar has significantly lagged and is significantly greater than other measures of its power.

That means that if the US dollar were to lose its reserve status and significantly depreciate in value it would have a devastating effect on the finances of those countries holding those reserves as well as private-sector holders of dollar-debt assets.  Who would be the winners?  Those with dollar-debt liabilities and those with non-dollar assets would be the big winners.  In the concluding chapter, “The Future,” we will explore what such a shift might look like. 

 

Eoin Treacy's view

The massive increase in the supply of currency since the end of the quantitative tightening regime last year is a headwind for the US Dollar. The fact the monetary and fiscal assistance programs deployed by the USA are much larger than in other countries is certainly a near-term headwind for the Dollar but the big question is whether this is a secular change?

 

Europe Readies MiFID Rollback to Increase Recovery Investment

This article by Alexander Weber and Silla Brush for Bloomberg may be of interest to subscribers. Here is a section:

“The current crisis makes it even more important to not impose burdens where they are not strictly necessary,” the commission said in the document. “Many stakeholders believe that increasing small and midcap research would lead to greater liquidity in those issuances.”

The change could take effect in early 2021, according to an official familiar with the plans, but still needs approval from the European Parliament and the bloc’s 27 member states. When the coronavirus pandemic brought Europe’s economy to a grinding halt in March, politicians, regulators and central
bankers focused first on facilitating bank loans to keep companies afloat. Now the goal is to avoid an excessive reliance on debt, which is seen as keeping firms from investing in their future and could even threaten their survival.

 

Eoin Treacy's view

The coronavirus has been a clear accelerant for trends in just about every asset class the changes being wrought in the Eurozone are among the most momentous. In the last few months, we have seen a clear evolution of the cooperation inside the Eurozone, a willingness to dispense with the fiscal strait jacket, willingness to implement shared fiscal responsibility, a willingness to donate funds to debt stricken southern countries and now the relaxation of strict financial sector regulations. This is the clearest signal in a decade that the EU is once more moving towards closer cohesion.

 

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