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Hong Kong migrants could provide multi-billion pound boost to UK economy, report

Published: 15:42 06 Jul 2020 BST

Hong Kong protests
Hong Kong has been experiencing large pro-democracy protests since last summer

The potential influx into the UK of Hong Kong citizens fleeing the city under the recently announced bespoke immigration route for British Nationals Overseas (BNO) and their dependents could add as much as £40bn to the country’s gross domestic product (GDP), according to new data from a management consultancy.

In a report published on Monday, the Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR) said the potential arrival of workers from the territory, which was transferred back to Chinese governorship from the UK in 1997, “could provide a significant stimulus to the UK economy”.

As a baseline, the CEBR estimated if 300,000 people migrated to the UK, almost all of the 350,000 current holders of BNO passports in Hong Kong, this could provide a £12bn stimulus to the economy, although this was “unlikely to be the full extent of the impact” as some of these migrants will have dependents that “will eventually add to the UK economy once through schooling”.

“Additionally, a greater proportion of eligible individuals may immigrate over a longer period – on top of the impact of having a relatively young population of immigrants with rapidly improving skills during their working lives”, the report said, estimating that if 1mln individuals immigrated over a five year period, less than the 2.8mln Hong Kong residents currently eligible for BNO status, this could result in an eventual economic stimulus of £40bn.

The economic boost could even be greater still, CEBR said, highlighting that assets could also be moved out of Hong Kong to the UK, which “might be made easier and more convenient by the settlement offer”.

“So, the longer-term boost to GDP from Hong Kong migration may be considerably more than estimated… With the economic problems caused by Coronavirus and the possible short term impact of a No Deal Brexit, the influx of highly skilled migrants from Hong Kong could be a ray of sunshine in what is otherwise a dismal year for the UK economy”, the report said.

Lifeboat scheme

Under the proposals announced by the British government in early July, Hong Kong BNO holders will be granted five years leave to remain in the UK, with the right to work or study. After these five years, they will be able to apply for settled status and after a further 12 months with settled status, they will be eligible to apply for citizenship.

The UK’s move comes in response to the implementation of controversial national security legislation in Hong Kong by the central Chinese government following around a year of large pro-democracy protests in the city.

The new law supposedly criminalises separatism and dissent against the Chinese and Hong Kong government’s, however human rights groups and observers have said the broad scope of the law effectively criminalises all forms of political dissent including peaceful protests.

Other countries such as Australia, Taiwan and the United States are also considering offering assistance and so-called ‘lifeboat schemes’ to help Hong Kongers fleeing the city to escape persecution under the new laws.

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