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02 July 2020
Video commentary for July 1st 2020
Eoin Treacy's view
A link to today's video commentary is posted in the Subscriber's Area.
Some of the topics discussed include: Dollar susceptible to additional weakness. industrials resources firm, wide yield differentials favour ex-US markets, gold eases.
The FDA Wants a Covid-19 Vaccine That Really Works
This article by Max Nisen for Bloomberg may be of interest to subscribers. Here is a section:
The path the FDA outlines is a long one. It’s going to take a while to recruit and enroll 30,000 people in a trial and give half of them two shots in the arm — as Moderna Therapeutics Inc. intends to do to test its candidate. And until a sufficient number of subjects in the placebo arm of such a trial contract Covid-19, there won’t be any firm results. Any number of variables could cause further delays: bad luck, a poor vaccine performance, or slowing case growth.
The FDA is by no means ignoring the urgency of the moment. Its guidance includes a variety of concessions on safety data and other issues that are meant to speed the process. But the world can be grateful the agency is willing to bend only so far.
Eoin Treacy's view
Setting a high standard for a vaccine that will be administered to hundreds of millions of people is imperative. It is the minimum requirement to instill faith in the population that it is worth accepting. I have every expectation that the advances in genetic sequencing and editing will deliver a positive result this year and that a true second wave will be avoided.
The impatience many people feel is perhaps the biggest obstacle to containing the spread before a vaccine has been delivered. I even find myself being less vigilant now than I was a few months ago. That is despite the massive swell of community spread and the greater likelihood of contracting it as a result. That’s a good example of how even the most extreme situation can assume an air of normalcy after a relatively short period of time. That’s one of humanity’s greatest survival instincts, although it is not especially helpful in the short term.
Tesla China Plant Might Have Come to the Rescue Last Quarter
This article by Dana Hull for Bloomberg may be of interest. Here is a section:
“The lesson learned by now is that TSLA shares tend to ‘work’ when something new has launched,” Jeffrey Osborne, a Cowen Inc. analyst with the equivalent of a sell rating on the stock, said in a report Tuesday. “At this point both the Model Y and China built cars are ramping up.”
Musk, 49, suggested to Tesla employees early this week that the company could manage to avoid a quarterly loss.
“Breaking even is looking super tight,” the CEO wrote to staff in an email seen by Bloomberg. “Really makes a difference for every car you build and deliver. Please go all out to ensure victory!”
Eoin Treacy's view
Tesla has done an admirable job of keeping production on line globally even as sporadic shutdowns at home impaired manufacturing. The decision by California to mandate emission free trucking by 2040 is an additional tailwind for the battery producer.
Musings from the Oil Patch June 30th 2020
Thanks to a subscriber for this report by Allen Brooks for PPHB. Here is a section on Chinese and Indian coal demand:
India has auctioned 41 coal mines with 17 billion tons of geological coal reserves to enable private companies to commence commercial extraction. All of these mines are largely fully-explored, enabling them to come into production quickly. Four of the mines will be dedicating their coal for use by steel-making plants. The 41 mines represent both large and small mines with peak-rated capacities (PRC) of 0.5 to 40.0 million tons annually (mmt/y). These mines will provide a total PRC of 225 mmt/y when in operation. Given the sizes and locational challenges of some of the mines, we can expect to see more pictures of women hauling baskets of lump coal from the mine to shipment points. This is one way to help the nation’s employment situation.
The increased use of coal is designed to help India deal with its economic challenges, of which employment is one aspect. However, lowering, or at least keeping stable, the cost of energy is also crucial for political peace. The impact on India’s climate goals remains an open question. The long-term outlook for India’s energy mix suggests that fossil fuels will remain the dominant supplier. Even if coal, which accounted for 56% of India’s energy in 2017, were to fall below 50%, and all of that decline went to renewables, it would only triple its contribution – rising from 3% to 9%. Making further gains in reducing carbon emissions will become a huge challenge for government policymakers.
The China story has become more interesting, given that it has become the largest emitter of carbon dioxide and other pollutants, while still paying lip-service to its environmental commitments to the 2015 Paris Climate Accord. China still consumes more than half the world’s coal, and that seems likely to remain the condition for a while, despite the large push for renewable power.
China recently approved two new coal mines with a combined output of 3.6 mmt/y, at a cost of $566 million (4 billion yuan). Those two new mines will have nearly as much output as China’s current coal production, which in 2019 was 3.75 mmt/y. Behind approving the new mines is the government’s plan for shutting down small and outdated mines in favor of larger ones located in coal-rich provinces.
Eoin Treacy's view
A link to the full report is posted in the Subscriber's Area.
Energy security is a major consideration for every consuming nation. Neither India not China have any hope of achieving energy independence any time soon. The virtue signalling China, in particular, engages in at climate conferences contrasts starkly with the reality on the ground. China is building more coal fired power stations all over the world than ever.
Eoin's personal portfolio: stock market short stopped out a small profit June 16th
Eoin Treacy's view
One of the most commonly asked questions by subscribers is how to find details of my open traders. In an effort to make it easier I will simply repost the latest summary daily until there is a change. I'll change the title to the date of publication of new details so you will know when the information was provided.
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