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The Markets
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British American Tobacco and housebuilders in focus on Tuesday

It is likely to be a quiet day in terms of macroeconomic data

Tuesday will bring a first-quarter trading update from cigarette maker British American Tobacco PLC (LON:BATS), among others.

As a defensive sector, demand for tobacco products tends to be largely unaffected by macroeconomic conditions, and so far the coronavirus pandemic has done little to impact the FTSE 100 group's operations, although predictably sales of its duty-free products are lower due to the significantly reduced levels of travel during the lockdown.

While tobacco volumes are expected to fall by 5% this year, BAT has said it expects revenues still to grow at the lower end of its 3%-5% range, so shareholders are likely to eye any potential changes to this forecast.

Another area likely to come under scrutiny is the company’s vaping and other 'next generation' products, as hopes of explosive growth have been hit hard by tighter regulation and concerns around the effects of vaping on health.

The dividend is one area where investors may expect little change, with investors and analysts seeing tobacco returns amongst the safest in the market during the coronavirus crisis.

The company's most recent outlook for 2020 guided to high single-figure growth in earnings per share and 65% of it paid out via dividends.

Focus on housebuilders

A trading statement from Bellway PLC (LON:BWY) and half-year numbers from Crest Nicholson PLC (LON:CRST) will bring some focus back on the housebuilding sector.

House price data last week pointed to falling prices, which should hit the wider housing sector, and these updates will provide more detail on the restart of activity post-lockdown, including sales volumes and pricing too.

In late April, Bellway said it was gradually reopening building sites under new coronavirus social distancing guidelines, beginning with properties in the later stages of construction.

In the five weeks since the March 23 UK lockdown start, Bellway had completed 493 home sales and its order book was worth £1.6bn, comprising of 5,976 plots.

Fellow FTSE 250 builder Crest was one of the last to begin reopening in mid-May, with all its sites and operations shut since early April.

Reservation levels were said to have been impacted by the coronavirus, though a moderate number of new sales and some legal completions had been made during the lockdown.

The market will be more interested in the shape of customer demand in recent weeks and the operational changes being made by chief executive Peter Truscott, who joined last September, than the first-half results, said analysts at Peel Hunt.

“It will be far too early to be definitive but the market is expecting a modest catch up bounce before settling into a new normal level of activity. Forward sales will protect Crest, and the rest of the sector a bit, but the government may well need to introduce new policies and/or tax changes to boost demand for new housing.”

Significant events expected on Tuesday:

Trading updates: British American Tobacco PLC (LON:BATS), Bellway PLC (LON:BWY)

Finals: AVEVA Group PLC (LON:AVV), Big Yellow Group PLC (LON:BYG), CML Microsystems Plc (LON:CML), Mckay Securities PLC (LON:MCKS), Oxford Instruments PLC (LON:OXIG), Schroder Real Estate Investment Trust Ltd (LON:SREI)

Interims: Crest Nicholson (LON:CRST)

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