Friday will see the release of official UK retail sales data from the start of March to April 4, with most shops having been forced to close on March 24 as the country went into coronavirus lockdown.
Retail sales volumes are likely to have fallen 15% during the lockdown points, said Pantheon Macroeconomics, pointing to a 5.0% fall for the whole period on a month-to-month basis.
Among the smattering of items on the corporate diary, there will be a quarterly update from FTSE 100-listed Pearson PLC (LON:PSON), which last month said it was pausing its share buyback scheme to better manage cash through the coronavirus pandemic.
The educational publisher and testing centre operator, which is still awaiting the appointment of a new chief executive to replace outgoing boss John Fallon, said it has seen a “significant uplift” in the use of its digital products and online learning services.
This was offset by the closure of physical sites due to the virus, with an estimated impact of £25mln-£35mln on operating profit if its VUE testing centres are closed until mid-April.
With that time having passed, analysts at Credit Suisse have assumed no re-opening for three months will lead to an operating profit impact of around £80mln, along with a further £30mln hit on US student testing this year and that disruption to the back to school period for US colleges later in the year will lead to a 15% decline for courseware, rather than the 10.6% previously pencilled in.
Forecasting a positive impact for Global Online Learning and a positive £30mln movement in currencies, this drives a combined £116mln, or 26%, cut in 2020 operating profit, followed by a 17% cut in 2021.
Pearson also said it is exploring cost-cutting measures and government relief programmes, which Credit Suisses calculates will be around £10-20mln as well as a £25mln reduction in capex.
With Pearson trading just above 450p, down 30% in 2020 and almost 50% over a 12-month period, the Swiss bank's analysts see the shares are appropriately valued.
Significant announcements expected on Friday April 24:
Trading announcements: Pearson PLC (LON:PSON), Rotork PLC (LON:ROR), Science Group PLC (LON:SAG)
AGMs: HSBC PLC (LON:HSBA), ITV PLC (LON:ITV), Pearson PLC (LON:PSON)
Economic data: US Michigan consumer sentiment