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Fed Set to Launch Multitrillion Dollar Helicopter Credit Drop

This article by Rich Miller for Bloomberg may be of interest to subscribers. Here is a section: “The Fed has effectively shifted from lender of last resort for banks to a commercial banker of last resort for the broader economy,” said JPMorgan Chase & Co. chief U.S. economist Michael Feroli.

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Comments of the Day

27 March 2020

Video commentary for March 26th 2020

 

Eoin Treacy's view

 A link to today's video commentary is posted in the Subscriber's Area. 

Some of the topics discussed include: upside key reversals for the Dow, S&P500 and Nasdaq-100, Microsoft and Apple, VIX Index moderating, Dollar falling as epic money priniting kicks off, gold firm, TED spread still expanding,  

 

Fed Set to Launch Multitrillion Dollar Helicopter Credit Drop

This article by Rich Miller for Bloomberg may be of interest to subscribers. Here is a section:

“The Fed has effectively shifted from lender of last resort for banks to a commercial banker of last resort for the broader economy,” said JPMorgan Chase & Co. chief U.S. economist Michael Feroli.

The coming rain of credit -- historic in both size and scope -- will be made possible by $454 billion set aside in the aid package for Treasury to backstop lending by the Fed. That’s money the central bank can leverage to provide massive amounts of financing to a broad swathe of U.S. borrowers.

“Effectively one dollar of loss absorption of backstop from Treasury is enough to support $10 worth of loans.” Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said in in a rare nationally-televised interview early Thursday morning. “When it comes to this lending we’re not going to run out of ammunition.”

He told NBC’s “Today” show that the Fed was trying to create a bridge over what may well be a substantial decline in the economy in the second quarter, to a resumption of growth sometime in the latter half of the year.

“It’s very hard to say precisely when that will be,” he said. “It will really depend on the spread of the virus. The virus is going to dictate the timetable here.”

While the Fed can help by keeping interest rates low and ensuring the flow of credit, “the immediate relief” for Americans will come from the Congressional aid package, Powell said. The bill includes direct payments to lower- and middle-income Americans of $1,200 for each adult and $500 for each child.

Combined with an unlimited quantitative easing program, the Fed’s souped-up lending facilities are set to push the central bank’s balance sheet up sharply from an already record high $4.7 trillion, with some analyst saying it could peak at $9-to-$10 trillion.

 

Eoin Treacy's view

The new stimulus plan is providing money to 90% of consumers, but also to corporations, municipals and both the government and corporate bond markets. In terms of both size and scope the package is designed to provide a life line to all markets and, so far, it is having the desired effect.

 

 

Email of the day on upgrading to an annual subscription

I read Eoin’s commentary today and saved myself a lot of money.

Could I pay the difference and pay an additional £542 today for a full year sub?

I would be very grateful if that could be arranged.

 

Eoin Treacy's view

Thank you for your support and I am delighted you are finding value in the service. We are happy to help any monthly subscriber to upgrade to annual subscription and will of course perform a pro-rate credit against the annual total.

From an international potential subscriber’s perspective, the accelerated decline in the Pound also offers a favourable entry point for annual subscriptions.

 

Wall Street Braces for Dollar Demand to Spike at Quarter-End

This article by Liz Capo McCormick and Anchalee Worrachate for Bloomberg may be of interest to subscribers. Here is a section:

At the same time the extent of virus damage starts to show in data, Wells Fargo & Co. reckons the recent plunge in equities has left pension-fund portfolios so far out of balance that it will force them to dump about $40 billion in Treasuries and other debt before the month is out.

Even ignoring quarter-end, JPMorgan Chase & Co. was predicting pension and other investment funds would have to shift billions into equities to counter the historic rout.

These kinds of flows can create turmoil for currencies. The forum overseeing conduct on the $6.6-trillion-a-day foreign-exchange market warned on Thursday volatility may surge in the coming days.

“At the end of every month and even more so the end of every quarter, we tend to see strong corporate demand for the U.S. dollar,” said Athanasios Vamvakidis, head of G-10 foreign exchange strategy, Bank of America Merrill Lynch. “This seasonality is strong on our flows, particularly for end-quarter. Having said that, the global crisis may be a more important dollar driver now.”

 

Eoin Treacy's view

The ebbing and flowing of global liquidity over the last month has resulted in some acute volatility for the Dollar. It initially sold off heavily because carry traders were being unwound, which saw short-term demand for the Euro and Yen soar as funds were repatriated. That subsequently morphed into a Dollar shortage as demand soared with banks refusing to lend.

 

Gaming Boom Hides Struggle to Create New Hits in Isolation

This article by Takashi Mochizuki, Zheping Huang, Olga Kharif and Vlad Savov for Bloomberg may be of interest to subscribers. Here is a section:

At a time when Valve Corp.’s Steam online gaming service is breaking records and global gaming publishers are registering increased demand due to millions of people stuck at home, the systems designed to build those companies’ future success are faltering.

One game project that Upfall Studios was doing work for has been put on hold because its developers weren’t able to demo it at GDC and haven’t yet managed to pitch it remotely. Two other developers Amador has collaborated with are also struggling to secure remote calls with publishers.

Before the coronavirus grew into a global pandemic, it was already interrupting the supply chain for game art and assets, as many big publishers rely on outsourcing to art studios in China, which was first to suffer the effects.

Super Smash Bros. creator Masahiro Sakurai wrote in industry magazine “Famitsu” last week that the release of additional content for his blockbuster series would be delayed due to the coronavirus. Private Division, a unit of Take-Two Interactive Software Inc., said last month that its Outer Worlds action role-playing game would also be late arriving on Nintendo Co.’s Switch due to the pandemic.

 

Eoin Treacy's view

We bought an Oculus Quest (untethered virtual reality headset) as a surprise for my daughter’s birthday last week. We did not realise at the time how limited supply was. It was sold out for months up till early March and sold out again within two weeks.

It is the most innovative piece of gaming technology I have seen since the Nintendo Wii came out 14 years ago. The immersive environment and visceral experience of reality lend a degree of fun and playability I was not prepared for. I boxed competitively at university and the Apollo Creed game is the closest thing anyone is likely to come to being in the ring in real life.

 

Eoin's personal portfolio - profit taken on stock market short

 

Eoin Treacy's view

One of the most commonly asked questions by subscribers is how to find details of my open traders. In an effort to make it easier I will simply repost the latest summary daily until there is a change. I'll change the title to the date of publication of new details so you will know when the information was provided.

 

 

 

 

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