Oil & Gas Daily Flow
Non-Independent Research; Marketing & Sales Commentary - MiFID II exempt information – see disclaimer below
Market Update: Tuesday 24 March 2020
Pantheon Resources (LON:PANR): 483MMbbo recoverable at Shelf Margin Deltaic alone
Diversified Gas & Oil (LON:DGOC): Five-year extension granted in Ohio
Gulf Keystone Petroleum (LON:GKP): FY20 production guidance suspended
Ascent Resources* (LON:AST): Strategy to diversify into Caribbean and Hispanic America
Energy Prices
Brent Oil US$28.5/bbl vs US$25.7/bbl yesterday
WTI Oil US$24.9/bbl vs US$22.6bbl yesterday
Natural Gas US$1.61/mmbtu vs US$1.55/mmbtu yesterday
Oil Price News
Oil prices are up c.4% today on hopes that the US will soon reach a deal on a US$2tn Coronavirus aid package that could blunt the economic impact of the outbreak and in turn support oil demand
Prices are also being supported by the weaker dollar that stemmed from the Fed’s unprecedented measures
The overall crude demand outlook remains low as long as travel restrictions are in place and governments curtail commercial activities to prevent the coronavirus spread.
Prices and profit margins for motor and aviation fuels globally are under severe pressure from a plunge in demand as countries enforce lockdowns and airlines ground planes, forcing more refineries to reduce output and lower their crude oil demand
Global Energy companies cut FY20 spending
International benchmark prices have more than halved since the start of the year, falling to below US$30/bbl
In response, the broad majority of listed companies have cut forward spending budgets:
BP – will reduce capital and operational spending, which was about c.US$15bn last year
CHEVRON - will trim spending and lower oil output in the near term. 2020 organic capital expenditure guidance had been US$20bn
DNO – will cut its FY20 budget by 30% or US$300m and lower its dividend for the first half of the year
ENERGEAN - cut its investments by US$155m in Greece and Israel and could reduce its budget for Egypt by another US$140m if needed
ENI - cancelled share buyback of €400m until Brent is at least US$60/bbl
ENQUEST - cutting operating costs by 30% to US$375m and investment will be lowered by US$80m to US$150m
EQUINOR - suspended its ongoing US$5bn share buyback programme
EXXONMOBIL – TBC but confirmed significant cuts to spending. It had previously budgeted US$30bn to US$33bn for projects in FY20
GENEL -reduce investments to US$60m this year, but expected the number to be US$100m
KOSMOS ENERGY - dividend suspended, will reduce FY20 capex by 30%
OIL SEARCH - cutting FY20 investment by 38% and capital spending by 44%
PREMIER OIL - identified at least US$100m in potential savings on its FY20 capital spending plans
SAUDI ARAMCO – will cut capital spending for FY20 to between US$25bn - US$30bn, compared with US$32.8bn in FY19
ROYAL DUTCH SHELL – cut FY20 capex by US$5bn and suspended the next tranche of its share buyback plan
TOTAL - cut capex by 20% and find additional cost savings of around US$400m this year
TULLOW OIL – cut capex by US$350m this year and reduce exploration spending by 50%
WINTERSHALL – 20% cut in capex to at least US$1.3bn
Gas Price News
Natural gas prices are trading up this morning after short-sellers covered positions following the announcement of more monetary stimulus from the US Federal Reserve and as they await Congress’ decision on new fiscal stimulus
Current consensus estimates a near-term rally early next week due to a slight increase in demand, but gains are likely to be limited because the overall fundamental picture is still bearish
Gas prices are still trading near their lowest levels in years as near-record production and months of mild weather enabled utilities to leave more gas in storage, making fuel shortages and price spikes unlikely
Company News
Pantheon Resources (LON:PANR): 483MMbbo recoverable at Shelf Margin Deltaic alone
Share price: 10.9p, Market Cap: £67.0m
Yesterday afternoon, Pantheon announced that following review and high grading of its Alaskan project inventory, and reprocessing of previously unmerged 3D seismic data in the second half of 2019, the Company has updated the market with resource upgrades.
As a result of the work undertaken, the Talitha project has been split into three different horizons which are all mutually exclusive geological formations with different reservoir trap geometries, qualities and risk profiles.
All of these formations have been penetrated by an existing well and following more detailed petrophysical analysis have been confirmed as oil bearing.
The Company has completed its analysis of the shallowest of these horizons, the 'Shelf Margin Deltaic', a Brookian age reservoir, estimated to contain 1.8Bnbbls OIP and a P50 Technically Recoverable Resource of 483MMbbo.
Previous estimates for all three zones combined were 2.6Bnbbls OIP and 463-508MMbbo P50 Technically Recoverable Resource for the entire Talitha project, therefore indicating a significant resource upgrade across the acreage.
Our take: A very encouraging update from Pantheon with the updated resource estimates significantly higher than pre-analysis expectations. The Company has modelled a two phased development plan for this zone, exploiting 376MMbbo of this resource, and using the WTI current forward price curve, yields a potential NPV10 of over US$2Bn, an NPV of US$5.75/bbl and an IRR of 55%. Following Pantheon’s drilling results in East Texas, Alaska now underpins the Company’s valuation in our view. The Company now has multiple drilling targets and a farmout process remains underway with a number of groups having entered the data room and with a number of others having expressed interest in entering the data room in the future.
Diversified Gas & Oil (LON:DGOC): Five-year extension granted in Ohio
Share price: 74p, Market Cap: £474m
DGO has confirmed that the Company has extended its five-year definitive asset retirement agreement with the state of Ohio by an additional five years, now covering asset retirement activities through the period ending 31 December 2029.
The terms of the Agreement remain substantially unchanged while increasing DGO's commitment to plug gas and oil wells to 20 wells per annum for the duration of the agreement, which represents an increase of two wells per annum from the prior agreement.
The Company will also post a surety bond of US$650k for the life of the agreement and for benefit of Ohio where DGO owns and operates approximately 7,100 wells.
The agreement remains aligned with the Company's ongoing Systematic Asset Retirement Programme to safely and permanently retire those wells that have reached the end of their productive lives.
Our take: A positive update from DGO in our view, further consolidating the Company’s position in Ohio. Elsewhere, the EdgeMarc assets (acquired for US$50m) have materially boosted the Company’s production base, whilst legacy assets are being maintained. Funding acquisitions through debt is typically a risky game in the mid-cap oil sector, however with the quarterly dividends still flowing to shareholders and 90k+bopd flowing from the well heads, yield investors should remain committed to DGO despite all time low commodity prices, given the Company robust hedging position in our view.
Gulf Keystone Petroleum (LON:GKP): FY20 production guidance suspended
Share price: 67.3p, Market Cap: £138m
In light of recent macro events and a delay in reporting the Company’s FY19 results, GKP has provided a short outlook statement today.
At current production levels, the Company covers all operating, general and administrative costs and interest payments with a Brent price of c.US$35/bbl meaning GKP is cash flow negative at current pricing.
In the absence of further expansion activity, FY20 capital expenditures, including expenditures incurred to date and remaining firm commitments, are estimated to be between US$50m and US$60m (gross).
The delay of further investment into Shaikan is expected to impact prior gross FY20 production guidance of 43,000-48,000bopd and achieving 55,000bopd in Q3 2020.
Given the macro uncertainty, the Board is suspending guidance until such time as the outlook becomes clearer.
Our take: Current production rates from Shaikan are at c.38,000bopd, currently unaffected by the impact of COVID-19, however current oil prices and the ongoing delays of payments from the KRG will be a concern for GKP and its shareholders in our view. Current cash of US$159m ensures the Company is in a comfortable liquidity position for the time being, but a reduction in operating and administrative costs are likely in the short term to reduce GKP’s breakeven point.
Ascent Resources* (LON:AST): Strategy to diversify into Caribbean and Hispanic America
Share price: 2.2p, Market Cap: £884k
Following the recent approval of Ascent’s restructuring, the newly appointed Board is in the process of reviewing the Company's asset in Slovenia, and in particular the Company's positioning with its joint venture partners and stakeholders in country.
As part of its ongoing strategic review in Europe, the Company has confirmed that given its existing skill sets and regional relationships, it continues to evaluate multiple opportunities to grow its European footprint, including in neighbouring Central Eastern European countries and in the UK.
As part of an expanded international strategic review, the Company has also identified the Caribbean and Hispanic America region as highly prospective for oil and gas, and a region where the new team's industry experience, existing relationships and skill set can add value.
The initial focus will centre on production and appraisal portfolios and Ascent views the current low oil price environment as an opportunity to secure advantageous entry terms.
It also notes recent legislative and licence changes to encourage foreign investment with attractive fiscal terms, reduced tax rates and tax holidays in some jurisdictions.
With this expanded international strategy in mind, a new subsidiary of Ascent is being launched, Ascent Hispanic Ventures, which will be the subsidiary vehicle for growth opportunities in this region.
Our take: Following years of uncertainty and litigation in Slovenia, we believe the new Board’s strategy of diversifying the Company’s geographical footprint is sensible. In the current climate, Ascent will benefit from a counter cyclical early mover advantage, especially if the Company can secure attractive fiscal terms against the backdrop of declining asset values. Its recently replenished balance sheet will also provide more security at it navigates this change in strategy.
*SP Angel acts as Broker to Ascent Resources
Research – Oil & Gas
Sam Wahab - 0203 470 0473
sam.wahab@spangel.co.uk
Sales
Richard Parlons – 020 3470 0472
Abigail Wayne – 020 3470 0534
Rob Rees – 020 3470 0535
SP Angel
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35-39 Maddox Street London
W1S 2PP
+SP Angel employees may have previously held, or currently hold, shares in the companies mentioned in this note.
Sources of commodity prices
Oil Brent, WTI
ICE
Natural Gas
NYMEX