Another week dominated by the coronavirus outbreak, and central bank intervention moves to ameliorate the impact - notably an unscheduled 50 basis cut to US interest rates by the Federal Reserve - will end on Friday with the US non-farm payrolls, which analysts say are unlikely to beat January’s figures.
Unseasonably warm weather allowed the addition of 225,000 jobs in January, surpassing expectations. However, this time around, the global coronavirus pandemic is likely to have restrained hiring activity among US firms as they focus on trying to shore up their existing business until the outbreak subsides.
According to Ian Shepherdson, economist at Pantheon Economics, the below-forecast ADP reading of a 183,000 increase in US private payrolls this Wednesday is likely to overstate Friday’s numbers.
“Our forecast for Friday is already well below consensus, at 140,000 compared to 175,000, because we are assuming a partial reversal of favorable weather effects, and the ADP undershoot isn’t big enough to push our estimate down significantly further.”
But given the Fed move already, this will likely have little impact for already volatile global stock markets.
Significant announcements expected for Friday 6 March:
Finals: SIG PLC (LON:SHI), Global Ports Investments PLC (LON:GLPR)
Economic data: US non-farm payrolls, US balance of trade, UK house prices