Recruitment companies face “long-term structural headwinds to demand and pricing”, believes Credit Suisse, with the temp industry seen as dangerously exposed to the rise of automation and artificial intelligence.
Analysts at the Swiss bank downgraded their recommendation on the sector, with London-listed Robert Walters PLC (LON:RWA) and PageGroup PLC (LON:PAGE) to ‘underperform’ from ‘outperform’, keeping their ‘underperform’ rating on Hays PLC (LON:HAS).
Expecting markets to remain challenging in the near-term, with incremental headwinds from Covid-19 and restrictive legislation in a number of areas, the analysts made an 8% cut to 2020 earnings per share.
In the medium-term, labour shortages are a “key source of concern” for agencies and are forecast to weigh on both the temp and contract markets.
Over time, the CS analysts think the temp industry is “disproportionately exposed to occupations at high risk of automation”.
“Although in most cases it is tasks within these jobs rather than the entirety of these jobs that will be affected, the net impact will be to both reduce jobs and to see an increasing proportion of low-productivity roles.”
Estimating that not far off three-quarters of US temps operate in occupations at high risk of automation, compared with 49% for the broader US labour market, the analysts reckon this will affect demand for the generalist temp markets.
These factors are not reflected in share prices, the analysts suggested.