Your free daily email from Fuller Treacy Money
Comments of the Day
23 January 2020
Video commentary for January 22nd 2020
Eoin Treacy's view
A link to today's video commentary is posted in the Subscriber's Area.
Some of the topics discussed include: Acceleration as a trend ending, the evolution of a mania, the progression of markets following an inverted yield curve. palladium's acceleratoin, Wall Street steady, bonds stable, Dollar eases, China steadies, India weak.
Bridgewater Co-CIO Bob Prince Says Boom-Bust Cycle Is Over
This article by Nishant Kumar for Bloomberg may be of interest to subscribers. Here is a section:
The tightening of central banks all around the world “wasn’t intended to cause the downturn, wasn’t intended to cause what it did,” Prince, the co-chief investment officer of Bridgewater, said in an interview with Bloomberg TV at the Swiss resort of Davos. “But I think lessons were learned from that and I think it was really a marker that we’ve probably seen the end of the boom-bust cycle.”
Eoin Treacy's view
The realization of how sensitive the financial markets now are to interest rates during the freezing up of the high yield market in December 2018 and the repo market in September 2019 is leading to a range of conclusions among policy makers and investors.
Netflix's Decline Emphasizes Limited Value of Users Overseas
This article by Joe Easton, Kit Rees and Kamaron Leach for Bloomberg may be of interest to subscribers. Here is a section:
Netflix Inc.’s latest earnings report spurred mixed feelings across Wall Street as growth overseas was offset by a slowdown in the U.S. amid rising competition from Walt Disney Co., Apple Inc. and more forthcoming launches. Needham Co. believes the spike in streaming rivals will increase Netflix’s churn and customer acquisition costs, most likely lowering the lifetime value per subscriber as growth overseas isn’t equivalent to that domestically. Netflix would need to “add four $3-per-month subscriptions in India to offset each U.S. subscriber lost,” Laura Martin, TMT analyst at Needham, wrote in a note.
Eoin Treacy's view
The clear conclusion from Netflix’s earnings is it is still growing where it has little to no streaming competition. Where it has competition, it is losing market share. The big question then is how quickly its competitors are going to expand abroad or how long will it take alternative streaming services to arise in Europe and India. Either would be a significant challenge as it continues to pump out mediocre content.
Citi Says Palladium in Total Disconnect, Jump In After Slump
This article by Ranjeetha Pakiam for Bloomberg may be of interest to subscribers. Here is a section:
The raw material used in autocatalysts has soared in the opening weeks of 2020 amid a sustained global deficit, with the extraordinary rally seeing prices hit records day after day before a pullback on Tuesday. Over the past 15 years, mine supply of palladium has shrunk by 1 million ounces, or 12%, while demand has risen 4 million ounces, or 57%, according to estimates from UBS Group AG. Palladium’s sister metal, rhodium, has jumped too.
“Commodity prices can completely disconnect from their marginal cost of production when inventories run down to critical levels, and this is precisely what is occurring in palladium and rhodium at present,” Citi said. “Palladium has for some time now presented the hallmarks of a genuinely tight market, including an extreme backwardation.”
Eoin Treacy's view
Another day, another $100+ advance in palladium. This speed of the acceleration since the announcement of the trade deal is nothing short of historic. There has been a lack of a supply response to date not least because of the uncertainty about the trajectory of global growth. If the continued supply of liquidity has the desired effect of confirming the trough in global growth, it will both be a boon for palladium demand but will also encourage additional supply into the market.