Goodness well a lot has happened since I last updated!
A massive Tory majority went down very well and markets had a great xmas rally and then when all looked good and we were in for a brilliant January... Donald Trump tweeted! Markets have since had a minor panic.
Hard to know what to make of it. Likely is that it will end up a spat with bits of damage on either side but nothing that will shake the world. That's what markets currently make of it anyway. I suppose it means tread a bit carefully.
As soon as the majority was in the bag I piled in with a massive Xmas rally spreadbets which by year end showed profits of £30,000 plus. Last year the rally didn't work out and I lost. But like the many years before it, the xmas rally paid for my sunny mid east trip, business class seats and five star hotels, so my thanks. It could have been more, I didn't get the top but stops got me out with that lovely profits.
The election win also meant I could have a lovely relaxing hols in the sun and see profits roll in without doing anything at all bar an occasional look at the tiny £150 google chrome laptop I took me with which does the job.
So I hardly had to anything which made it a great holiday. I don't know exactly but since the last update, on paper anyhow, overall profits are over £200,000. Given I don't need anything like that to live, that would have been fine over a year. So over a couple of weeks? Wonderful!
What next though? One part of me is saying - sod it all! Bank everything tax free take the year off.
Stop looking at stupid made up numbers, get out there and do something else!
But the greedy part says: "You can do better than Robbie! Go on, keep going! Make more!" I guess it's the usual good vs evil battle that goes on in us all.
As with everything (except with UK politics right now) there is a middle ground so I have taken some profits but I will also carry on looking for opportunities. I also enjoy the detective work.
Anyway enough pondering the future, no-one knows. What else have I been up to? As well as the Xmas rally bet I also did a FTSE 250 one which worked nicely and out of that one with a profit. Again I let stops take me out as it started to come back a bit.
I'll start with some buys then. I guess you're not interested in what I bought 4 weeks ago so I will concentrate only on the very newest trades.
With the last few weeks being really decent it's become harder to find value in the ones that have gone up so I've turned my attention to some turnaround stories. One possible turnaround in the news right now!
This very morning I bought some Finablr (LON:FIN) This one tanked after a hacking attack led it to take its Travelex services off line for a while causing a massive scare. A load of shares were also sold by shareholders,.
That obviously makes it risky on a "catch a falling knife" basis but it says the outages won't have any material impact on results. If we consider that to be true (!) then it looks like the massive fall in the shares - nearly halved in quite a short time - could be a great time to tuck them away.
However - if they kept on going down I would sell for a loss and maybe give it one more attempt further down. It looks very cheap now if it is assumed there is nothing else hiding in the accounts.
So on a "I know it is risky" basis even though it is a massive FTSE 250 company I've stuck my neck out! I'd be looking for at least a return to the 150p area. If the next statement shows decent figures, the shares would see a big bump up. And fast.
I've bought some Zytronic (LON:ZYT)
This one went ex dividend today for a massive 15p dividend! Which is why it is down by the dividend amount today. It again holds some risk and is totally different to Finablr on the basis it is right at the bottom of a market cap I would look at, so it is the very smallest type of co I would consider. And also because of that I would be wary of getting too many.
The 9 pc dividend comes about from the share going down after the company said it was worried about the very short term. If this share had a lot of debt I would never have touched it but its last statement said it had £13m cash and no debt. It says levels of enquiries for new projects are higher than last year so with "Brexit done" (!) it could translate soon into a higher share price as its sensors sell more.
Shares are gradually rising and would have thought 300-320 not unreasonable target. But, must be out quick if it goes horribly wrong. Defence shares have been doing very well - one that needs to play catch up is TP Group (LON:TPG).
This under the radar share could easily go up 30pc quickly when it goes over the radar. It looks very cheap and already today and yesterday it's announced contracts. It's been sitting around the 6.5-7.5 area for some time and deserves a re-rating sooner than later. At its current lowly market cap it looks like a takeover target (Cohort?) - certainly I would be eyeing this one up if I was a bigger similar company. Of course guesswork and hope on my part but I intend to hold firmly for my hoped for rerate!
Talking defence, Avon Rubber (LON:AVON) is the share that just keeps on giving and I couldn't resist another buy.
The shares have bounced (!) higher again as defence shares are getting a lift for obvious reasons.
The future continues to look bright, I am already in profit by many thousands and currently own about £90,000 worth plus. With original targets busted, could a move to 3000 be on the cards? There seems a lot of buying going on right now. I realised recently I seem to get shorts right more of the time than longs! Maybe I should forget longs and just short bad companies! I also haven't done much reporting of my shorts here over the years because I know not many people short and there isn't much interest.
However I have noticed a lot more interest so will cover my shorting more on the website than I have done previously.
If you want to learn how to short, come to my first ever spreadbetting seminar on March 2. See elsewhere for details.
I've shorted Trainline some more. It may take time but at some point this over rated ticket seller will get derailed. Virgin's already announced it's going to get into the ticket
market. Its founders have got rid of shares at any chance they get. I really don't think this one is going places,
I also shorted some more Card Factory (LON:CARD). That's paid off today after a very poor trading statement. Badly written too. Blames the general election!
As I have said previously. It really just sells cheap tatt. It has to pay massive rents and I don't think this company will still be here in 2 year's time. So
I shorted some more and think with its massive debt it is only a matter of when it goes bust. Frankly anyone investing in this needs to be sent a "good luck"
card. An old fashioned business that will go under - people just don't send cards much anymore.
A short in Restaurant Group (LON:REST). Apart from the recently bought Wagamana which is a decent chain (but did they pay too much?) the rest of the group is a dog's dinner of mid range boil in the bag places.
Pop into the pot massive debt and some red flags and the resulting stew doesn't look very tasty to me. I'm targetting a price going down to 120p.
And Superdry. (sdry) This looks like a short as well. I know it's supposed to be turning around but for right now cool youths thinks its brand stinks (so says my teenager).
And the middle aged don't think an awful lot of it either. As a brand I can't see what its target market is anymore. So a short it is. Some profit taking. Htws had a brilliant run, it also reached target and more quickly wasn't sure whether to bank of not and decided to bank half and keep the rest and I've taken part profits of £1,143 . But looks cheap still and might buy back on any weakness.
Sbiz had a very good run and taken profits of £503. Same comment to Network which went way over target for a profit of £1,360.
The Uber short has accelerated away on the downside but time to bank a nice profit of £2,800. And in similar style Lyft proved a lovely short with £8,400 banked.
All that leads to banked profit of £14,206.
Elsewhere absolutely massive rises recently for the portfolio came from various shares.
Biggest risers for me were Gan, Avon Rubber, Kape (LON:KAPE), Cohort (LON:CHRY) , Solid State (LON:SOLI), Ramsdens (LON:RFX) and XP Power (LON:XPP) among others which have all contributed to massive gains. Holdings in most of these are all in real life between £50,000 and £150,000 worth. That does mean of course if there is a market collapse I could lose it all again on paper. However on most of these, stops have been raised so unless an overnight warning it should now simply be a matter of how much profit will be made on each. Let's all keep our fingers crossed that the nutjobs in charge of the US and Iran will stop dangling their wrinkled old willies at each other.
Or is that actually the problem?