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Eoin's personal portfolio: precious metals long initiated

One of the most commonly asked questions by subscribers is how to find details of my open traders. In an effort to make it easier I will simply repost the latest summary daily until there is a change. I'll change the title to the date of publication of new details so you will know when the information was provided.

Platinum - Eoin's personal portfolio: precious metals long initiated

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05 November 2019

 

 

Video commentary for November 4th 2019

 

Eoin Treacy's view

A link to today's video commentary is posted in the Subscriber's Area. 

Some of the topics discussed include: S&P500 consistency characteristics and how accelerations occur, Europe rebounding, Asia firm, gold stable, platinum weak, Dollar rebounds, Treasuries ease. 

 

 

Rates Could Soar or Go Negative as Fed Pause Divides Wall Street

This article for by Liz Capo McCormick Bloomberg may be of interest to subscribers. Here is a section:

The message from the Fed, combined with solid U.S. job creation last month and optimism about U.S.-China trade talks, has pushed expectations for the next rate cut well into 2020. Fed fund futures aren’t penciling in a full quarter point cut until about September.

The yield move London-based Panigirtzoglou envisions would mirror what happened when the Fed engineered a similar three-quarter-point cut in a counter cycle maneuver in 1995. JPMorgan’s U.S.-based rates team is more sanguine, lifting its Treasury yield forecasts to 1.65% for year-end 2019 and 1.85% for mid-2020. That would be little changed from around 1.79% Monday.

Panigirtzoglou did add some big caveats to his bolder prediction. It assumes that the U.S. macro picture remains consistent with a mid-cycle adjustment, with resilience in employment and consumer confidence, as well as a rebound in manufacturing.

 

Eoin Treacy's view

These two views are not mutually exclusive. The outlook for rates is quite capable of fulfilling both scenarios, just not at the same time. Right now, the case for a mid-cycle slowdown, like what was seen in the mid ‘90s, is looking increasingly credible as stock markets push new highs and cyclicals return to outperformance. The argument for even lower yields is looking like an increasingly distant possibility.

 

 

Consistency Characteristics

 

Eoin Treacy's view

“A consistent trend is a trend in motion” is one of the most important adages from The Chart Seminar. David’s words “If a trend has further to go now, it will sustain the upward break” are ringing in my ears as the primary Wall Street indices and an increasingly number of European indices break out.

 

 

Germany Hopes for Positive Outcome for EU-U.S. Trade Talks

This note by Birgit Jennen for Bloomberg may be of interest: 

Germany is hopeful for a positive outcome in trade talks between the U.S. and the EU, Economy Ministry spokeswoman Katharina Grave says Monday in a regular government press briefing.

“We need less, not more tariffs,” she said
The government has taken note of comments from U.S. Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross that tariffs may not be levied on autos imported from the EU
NOTE, Nov. 3: U.S. May Not Need to Put Tariffs on European Cars, Ross Says

 

Eoin Treacy's view

Europe has been depending on its export sector to soften the impact of fiscal austerity for much of the last decade. That hasn’t worked so well over the last couple of years, with globalisation under threat from the trend towards nationalism and isolationism evident in an increasing number of countries. The prospect of the trade war winding down, at least for now, has the potential to act as a catalyst for investors to take a second look at the region.

 

 

Eoin's personal portfolio: precious metals long initiated

 

Eoin Treacy's view

One of the most commonly asked questions by subscribers is how to find details of my open traders. In an effort to make it easier I will simply repost the latest summary daily until there is a change. I'll change the title to the date of publication of new details so you will know when the information was provided.

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