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Johnson Has a Big Brexit Problem: His Northern Irish Friends

“None of our 10 members will vote for a border in the Irish Sea,” Ian Paisley, son of the party founder and one of its MPs, said in a RTE interview late on Monday, accusing the Irish government of stirring the “sleeping giant” of unionism.

Deutsche Bank - Johnson Has a Big Brexit Problem: His Northern Irish Friends

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Comments of the Day

16 October 2019

 

 

Video commentary for October 15th 2019

 

Eoin Treacy's view

A link to today's video commentary is posted in the Subscriber's Area. 

Some of the topics discussed include: safe haven demand wanes, Treasuries at particular risk of pulling back, gold in Pounds retreats on Brexit opptimism, Wall Street led higher by semiconductors, Brazilian real weak, Australian Dollar eases but Dollar Index also eases. 

 

 

Johnson Has a Big Brexit Problem: His Northern Irish Friends

This article by Dara Doyle for Bloomberg may be of interest to subscribers. Here is a section:

“None of our 10 members will vote for a border in the Irish Sea,” Ian Paisley, son of the party founder and one of its MPs, said in a RTE interview late on Monday, accusing the Irish government of stirring the “sleeping giant” of unionism.

At the same time, he said “we can all be happy -- this doesn’t have to be quid pro quo where if we gain, the Republic of Irish loses.”

Under Johnson’s original plan, Northern Ireland -- the region the DUP draws its lawmakers from -- would leave the EU’s customs union and Stormont, the local power-sharing assembly, will have a veto over the future arrangements with the EU.

Customs Compromise

That plan was shot down by EU officials and the Irish government. Instead Johnson has offered to loosen the Stormont veto and has proposed a complex compromise solution on customs.

This would see Northern Ireland leave the EU’s customs union but still adhere to its rules. Crucially, the rest of the U.K. will leave the customs union and be free to adopt completely new rules after Brexit. That disparity between the freedom that would be available to mainland Britain and the shackles that Northern Ireland would be bound by is unacceptable to the DUP.

 

Eoin Treacy's view

Theresa May hamstrung the Brexit negotiations when she failed to gain a larger majority in the snap election she called, which forced her into a coalition with the DUP. The founding principle on which the DUP runs is unwavering commitment to union with the rest of the UK. Visceral objection to any dilution of that link and suspicion of the intentions of every other party is the abiding attitude within the party.

 

Email of the day - on gold in different currencies.

“Can you please give me the key to charting gold bullion in GBPs from your chart library. Many thanks in advance”

 

Eoin Treacy's view

Thank you for this question which may be of interest to subscribers. Gold tends to do best in a negative real interest rate environment and when it is appreciating against most currencies.

There are a number of charts for gold in various currencies in the Chart Library. The easy way to find them is using the ticker code for gold as a currency which is XAU. Using XAU as the search term you will find charts for Gold in South African Rand, Indian Rupee, Swiss Franc, Brazilian Real, New Zealand Dollars, Swedish Krona, Singapore Dollars, Japanese Yen, Turkish Lira, Chinese Renminbi, Euro, British Pounds and Australian Dollars.

 

Why Didn't Dimon Step In on Repo? Just Ask Fed

This article by Brian Chappatta for Bloomberg may be of interest to subscribers. Here is a section:

There’s no indication that the Fed will consider loosening its requirements on banks to shore up the repo market. Instead, the central bank appears to prefer to do everything itself, abruptly reversing course on the size of its balance sheet and increasing the amount of reserves. St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said on Tuesday that a standing repo facility would be a sensible “endgame” to prevent more bouts of extreme volatility in funding markets.

 

Eoin Treacy's view

A standing repo facility at the Fed opens its balance sheet to potentially unlimited liability. That is the primary reason it has relied on the banking sector to provide liquidity historically and it is a testament to just how far the Fed is willing to go in deploying extraordinary liquidity measures.   

 

Inside a Brazen Scheme to Woo China: Gifts, Golf and a $4,254 Wine

This article from the New York Times may be of interest to subscribers. Here is a section:

The bank gave a Chinese president a crystal tiger and a Bang & Olufsen sound system, together worth $18,000. A premier received a $15,000 crystal horse, his Chinese zodiac animal, and his son got $10,000 in golf outings and a trip to Las Vegas. A top state banking official, a son of one of China’s founding fathers, accepted a $4,254 bottle of French wine — Château Lafite Rothschild, vintage 1945, the year he was born.

Millions of dollars were paid out to Chinese consultants, including a business partner of the premier’s family and a firm that secured a meeting for the bank’s chief executive with the president. And more than 100 relatives of the Communist Party’s ruling elite were hired for jobs at the bank, even though it had deemed many unqualified.

This was all part of Deutsche Bank’s strategy to become a major player in China, beginning nearly two decades ago when it had virtually no presence there. And it worked. By 2011, the German company would be ranked by Bloomberg as the top bank for managing initial public offerings in China and elsewhere in Asia, outside Japan.

 

Eoin Treacy's view

If anyone knows of an alternative route to building a business in China, I’d like to hear it.

 

Eoin's personal portfolio: precious metals long initiated

 

Eoin Treacy's view

One of the most commonly asked questions by subscribers is how to find details of my open traders. In an effort to make it easier I will simply repost the latest summary daily until there is a change. I'll change the title to the date of publication of new details so you will know when the information was provided.

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