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04 October 2019
Video commentary for October 3rd 2019
Eoin Treacy's view
A link to today's video commentary is posted in the Subscriber's Area.
​Some of the topics covered include: Wall Street pauses in the region of the trend mean, Bonds return to test their lows, FTSE weak and Pound steady, Yes Bank rebounds, gold and oil steady.
The Global Internet Phenomena Report
Thanks to a subscriber for this report from Sandvine which may be of interest. Here is a section:
Google (Alphabet): YouTube, Google Cloud, Google Play, Google Search, Google Docs, Google Drive, DoubleClick, Gmail, and Crashlytics
Netflix: Netflix Video
Facebook: Facebook, Instagram, Facebook Video, WhatsApp, Facebook Messenger, Oculus Rift Microsoft: Xbox Live, Windows Update, Skype, Outlook 365, Office 365, SharePoint, OneDrive, Windows Store, LinkedIn
Apple: iTunes, iCloud, Apple Software Update, FaceTime, Apple Music, Apple.com, iCloud Photo Stream, Mac App Store
The brands with video traffic have a significant advantage on the downstream. Google (YouTube), Netflix, Facebook, and Amazon (Amazon Prime) have strong video offerings. Apple soon will, and Microsoft’s entry into gaming streaming (Mixer) will likely move them up this list if they can continue to recruit high profile gamers.
As shown in the chart, Google is #1 overall and on the upstream. The combination of YouTube, Google Search, and Google Cloud are the biggest contributors to the upstream traffic, as they are an integral part of any Android device’s experience.
Netflix is the #1 on the downstream and #2 overall as the only pure play in the bunch. As we mentioned last year, if Netflix was not the most efficient streamer at every resolution, their total could easily be twice what it is today, and they continue to excel in video codec work and efficiency in resolution downshifts and upshifts.
Google is also #1 on connections. This is a much more collaborative effort among Google apps. YouTube, Google Cloud Messaging, Google Search, Crashlytics, DoubleClick, and even Nest are the biggest contributors to Google connections per device.
Amazon: Amazon Prime, Twitch, Amazon.com, Alexa, Amazon Glacier, Amazon Music
When combined, these brands took up over 43% of all traffic volume on the internet: The details are interesting. Overall, Google edged out Netflix as the top consumer of bandwidth on the internet (as well as upstream) and dominated in the percentage of connections. Unsurprisingly, Netflix was the single largest consumer of traffic downstream, but Google was not far behind. This is confirmation that brands can build synergies, expand their business, and succeed. The obvious outlier in this case is Netflix, which does one thing and does it exceedingly well, albeit at very high volume. With new streaming services coming out from Facebook and Apple, with 4K and live streaming taking hold, these numbers might climb even higher next year.
Eoin Treacy's view
The companies that dominate the internet have almost all adopted some form of the subscription business model. Their success in capturing the attention of hundreds of millions of consumers and the ad revenue and spending power that goes with it represent powerful cashflows. Their success also encourages competition and the evolution of new streaming services is a challenge to the early hegemony of some companies.
At Least 70 Countries Have Had Disinformation Campaigns, Study Finds
This article from the New York Times may be of interest to subscribers. Here is a section:
“The danger is the proliferation” of the techniques, he said. “Anybody who wants to influence the 2020 election may be tempted to copy what the Russian operation did in 2016.”
China’s emergence as a powerful force in global disinformation is one of the most significant developments of the past year, researchers said. The country has long used propaganda domestically, but the protests this year in Hong Kong brought evidence that it was expanding its efforts. In August, Facebook, Twitter and YouTube suspended accounts linked to Beijing that were spreading disinformation about the protests.
Philip N. Howard, director of the Oxford Internet Institute and one of the authors of the report, said that such online disinformation campaigns can no longer be understood to be the work of “lone hackers, or individual activists, or teenagers in the basement doing things for clickbait.”
There is a new professionalism to the activity, with formal organizations that use hiring plans, performance bonuses and receptionists, he said.
Eoin Treacy's view
Social media became one of the primary venues for consuming news by accident and it has allowed a great many people find a voice. Unfortunately, it has also afforded governments the ability to shape public opinion both at home and abroad.
Pound Gets Boost From Thaw in Parliament Tensions
This note by Charlotte Ryan for Bloomberg may be of interest to subscribers. Here it is in full:
The pound rose to its highest level in over a week, with the currency getting a boost as Boris Johnson appeared to win the backing of Conservatives on both sides of the Brexit debate, according to strategists.
Sterling gains as much as 0.7% to $1.2388, after earlier dropping as much as 0.3%
“Sterling is as happy as Parliament seems calm today,” said CIBC head of G-10 currency strategy Jeremy Stretch. “On the basis of the talk in Parliament if the EU were to agree to the latest proposals that of course is more than a big if, then it would appear that Parliament would vote in favor”
Speaking with market participants, it seems “they sense the red lines are shifting,” said Neil Jones, head of currency sales for financial institutions at Mizuho Bank. “It’s a more upbeat tone from Boris Johnson and the EU added to some reference the ERG may agree whatever Johnson comes back with,” he added, referring to the group of Conservative euroskeptics
Eoin Treacy's view
The UK’s parliament has voted repeatedly that they will not allow the government to push through a no deal Brexit. The only deal on the table is the one negotiated by Theresa May. Regardless of the fact that it represents membership of the EU in all but name, it still represents the most likely solution that has a chance of passing a vote in Parliament. If Boris Johnson can secure a deal of the Irish border it is likely to pass a vote in Parliament.