Typical bad planner I am. Been away the whole summer then go away for a bit of an "adults" holiday. I'm only just back thinking:
"Swear word... I've got to try and cover what I did and I can't even remember what the hell I did yesterday..."
I'll do the best I can - anything I've missed I'll catch up on next time. People always ask what I do when away. I just take a tiny little google chrome laptop with me and check in from time to time only pressing a button if something looks too tempting or I feel it is time to get out. Anyway another volatile summer! Crazy price variations as usual - when people are away there is less liquidity and so share prices move in barmy ways.
However it proved the "summer of love" for me with another bid for me - this time for Entertainment One after the success of the bid for Safecharge. So lots of profits about to be banked.
More in a mo. I'll comment more on current conditions a bit further down but my headline thought is there is little doubt volatility is ahead and it should be worth having some cash on the sidelines as firepower and some protection.
I have, and perhaps you should too? And it should be worth considering stops if you haven't before. Could save you in a sudden meltdown. Though with volatility set them well away if not using a get out quick (see new book)
It's not surprising investors feel uneasy at the mo. Mad politicos, China, Trump tweets, Brexit, problems in Euro land...
Markets are always perverse though. If you feel fear about the future it makes it more likely you're about to sell up just as prices soar!
Indeed some kind of deal Brexit or delay could cause a nice rise, and you could argue a lot of a no deal is priced in. And in a no deal some non UK shares will boom because of a weak pound.
So it's a compromise thing = I reckon still have some shares but cash too. That's me anyhow. We will all handle it differently.
Just try not to worry about Fear of Missing out. "I can't sell anything in case there is as deal and the market booms" etc.
Back to what was a great summer for me without having to do much. Indeed on the website positions for Entertainment One, profits are
huge. A rough calculation is a profit for the site holdings of over £120,000 which will be the biggest one off closed win for the site ever.
Not only that - dividends over the years from ETO probably amount to £20,000 plus which of course aren't recorded on the site.
I had been building a massive stake in this one for years as recounted here and I was always hopeful for a bid and patience paid off.
Combined with the Safecharge bid, profits from being patient with these two are over £140,000.
Indeed I didn't have to do a lot over the summer: I sold a few that weren't performing and did some small buying. And I also bought a few non performers back.
I'm not sure of the interest of stuff I bought way back in the hols so will concentrate for now on more recentish moves.
At last the mask distributor has used its massive cash pile to make an acquisition and the market really likes it, as do I. It was a giant buy of more than 100m dollars but looks a great fit.
There was little point in having tons of cash floating about with it doing nothing. If I was management I would sell the dairy division to concentrate on defence.
Shares are stupidly volatile because the spread is so silly early doors as it's not traded a lot. But overall, it just gradually keeps going up and 2200p looks poss by year end. Dividend is decent too.
risk! Rather, I bought on what look like decent figures, some net cash and a claim that there is a strong slate of games due for release in 2020.
I noted though one game has its release date delayed till October - I just don't have the knowledge to know how to interpret that though the market didn't seem too bothered. (But could be a negative sign?)
I can imagine people still buying games whether we have a no deal or a Corbyn! Cautious on this one so a stop will be there if it starts to fall back.
I've picked up some Tritax Big Box (Bbox) on weakness. Worries about no deal overdone here. This one is a very clever business focused on warehouses - there is an endless need for these for now and the future.
It's not a share that will double just like that but it is a great income share and one to simply hold from this day forth will death... well ok
not exactly but I've stacked a load away in the isa and pension and expect to leave it there, forget it enjoy the income and also come away eventually with good capital raise too.
When I say share, it is really an Investment Trust - a Real Estate Investment Trust. If you end up getting any your broker might send you a weird "test" to fill in!
I've bought some more ITV - this one is my next bid target now Entertainment One has gone. I've bought some for the isa but I have a giant holding now in spreadbets.
That's because on a bigger holding doing it on a spreadbet saves me a fortune in stamp duty.
You may be reading like me about Apple and the like all getting into TV. If I were them, I would buy ITV, then buy football rights. Interesting that ITV together with another company is developing ten minute episodes of dramas and shows for the new generation of non
TV watchers, stuff to watch easily on phones. I like that looking to the future.
A tiddler that looks interesting is TP Group (LON:TPG) It's at the very bottom of a market cap range I would buy, the liquidity seems ok. It's an engineer mainly in the defence and energy sectors.
A decent profit is forecast for next time and it has a large cash pile which makes its valuation at the bottom end.
Of course being small it comes with some risk but looks worth an investment for 6 months to a year to see how it goes. Patience may be needed but if it goes "ahead of" it's one of those that could climb 30% overnight and there is a lot of support at 6-6.5p. One downside is the Mail tipped it recently!
I did actually buy more ETO before the bid but I won't add to the site as enough has been made. There is a slight hope of a higher counter bid, I will leave it a tad longer but I will probably
start banking profits shortly, as I said earlier profits for the site will be over £100,000.
At the mo the ETO share prices hovers just above the bid price showing the market thinks there is a slim chance of a counter bid but it is not out of the question.
Safecharge profits have obviously been banked, they are no longer listed! Profits for the site of over £18,000 - a lot more personally plus a 5% dividend too over the years. Farewell Safecharge and thanks!
When you bank a profit before a delisting (or a final bid) by the way in essence you take a tiny bit less profit than waiting 2 months for the whole bid amount. Might as well, and use the cash elsewhere.
While remaining a TEP holder long term the short term adds in hindsight were near the top and a trailing stop took me out for losses of £424, £363 and a profit of £626 for an overall loss of £163. Considering there was a decent 25p dividend paid out, not too bad but very badly timed entries.
The shoe trades did really well and hit target - they then started to fall and it was obviously time to quit - not near the high sadly but not too bad for a profit of £1,596. Sold some near the high and a trailing stop took out the others lower. I think a good point to make again about "following" people such as me is beware. I decided to quit as it fell. But you could have copied me and stayed in and may still have been in when a warning hit a few days ago - so you could easily have lost 20pc plus. I always reiterated - beware of copying others including me, buying on tips and then not having your own plan on when to sell. You MUST do your own homework and have your own exit plan and plenty of examples in the new Naked Trader 5 !
I took a loss of £175 on Essensys - I changed my mind on it - I had a proper look at the figures and just wasn't so sure, so I played safe. It's easy to have conformation bias when you own something and I knew when I looked at it again, I wouldn't have bought it the first time so I outed it.
The summer is about the only time I would ever "average down" which I am usually against as often you can get silly drops on no volumes like Cine and Synt This doesn't often go well for me when I break my own rules but I couldn't understand the valuation based on likely future.
Synt was tricky because there was a massive rights issue giving new shares at a much lower market price of 240p to help fund a giant acquisition. In effect an forced average down. . I've learned from many past similar events that the share price falls initially down towards an issue price and then gradually rises. So all stops were off and I bought some more in addition to the rights shares. What then usually happens, happened... and shares are on their way back.
The shorts have worked a treat. The Pennon one bagged a profit of £450 .
The Domino short came out for a £1,200 profit and the Marks and
Sparks went for a sparkling £1,160 profit. Talk garnered a profit of £950.
I've taken A Vast profit on Avast (gettit?) of £841. The trade did everything
I was looking for and more, way past target so I have banked. I'd like to buy again if it goes a bit lower.
Those profits and losses all banked works out at around a profit of £24,000 for the site.
I am out of time for the mo as already getting mails asking where the update is and I don't want my box clogged up anymore than it is! I'll tidy up next update. Some very good rises for pre summer buys and will go through them next time.
Just to say we're coming up to a period of great uncertainty to say the least and that is what the market hates most.
As more of an investor than trader I guess it was generally a question of finding a great company. Now it has got harder as politics and Brexit has to be taken into account before pressing a buy button.
Will the pound affect said share price? Will a hard Brexit screw up the price or is it good because said share is quoted in dollars.
But isn't a lot priced in already? Hey maybe things will be ok and everything will bounce!
I hope and I am sure you do things will be resolved sooner than later.
In the meantime I do think it's sensible to have a lot of cash on the sidelines to await the final outcome.
Shares held in the meantime should generally at least generate a good dividend and net debt should be low unless it's a company with a lot of assets. In case of a meltdown stop losses make sense.
I do hope by 2020 things will be much resolved and we can get back to normal!