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03 September 2019
Video commentary for September 2nd 2019
Eoin Treacy's view
A link to today's video is postedd in the Subsciber's Area.
Some of the topics covered include: Bitcoin closes back above $10,000, gold firm, Pound weakens on heightened election risk, Australian Dollar weak, China firm, stock markets steady.
U.K. Election Threat Looms as Johnson Fights Tory Brexit Rebels
This article by Tim Ross, Kitty Donaldson and Alex Morales for Bloomberg may be of interest. Here is a section:
Talk of an early election highlights the make-or-break nature of this week for Johnson’s leadership and for the country as a whole. Since he became prime minister in July, Johnson has made it his mission to prepare the U.K. to leave the EU by the Oct. 31 deadline even if that means tumbling out of the 28-country bloc with no deal to cushion the blow to trade.
Many politicians inside his own Conservative Party are unwilling to go along with this plan, believing it will hit the economy, sparking a recession and a crash in the currency and house prices. They have been trying to work out a way to stop the premier forcing through a no-deal Brexit that would damage the economy and leave businesses and citizens facing legal chaos.
Eoin Treacy's view
I will repeat my view that the only way for the UK to get what it wants from negotiations is to present a credible case for leaving without a deal. You have to be willing to walk away unless you get what you want. Even if it is a bluff, it needs to be even more credible. The problem is in a parliament riven by indecision, competing allegiances and electrical arithmetic there is no consensus even on what the best negotiation tactic is.
Sydney and Melbourne house values rocket on lower rates
This article by Shane Wright and Eryk Bagshaw for the Sydney Morning Herald may be of interest to subscribers. Here is a section:
While stronger over the past quarter, values in the two cities are still down over the year. House values in Sydney are off by 7.7 per cent since August last year while in Melbourne they are down by 8.7 per cent.
There was a solid lift of 1.1 per cent in Canberra house values over the month while in Hobart they increased by 0.8 per cent.
But elsewhere values were down. They dropped another 1.6 per cent in Darwin with total house values down by 11.1 per cent over the past year. They dropped by 0.6 per cent in Perth, by 0.3 per cent in Adelaide while they were flat in Brisbane.
Eoin Treacy's view
Perhaps the most important point about the Australian financial sector is the Royal Commission has concluded without a knock-out blow for the banks.
Indonesia Set to Halt Nickel Ore Exports From End December
This article by Wahyudi Soeriaatmadja for the Straits Times may be of interest to subscribers. Here is a section:
Energy and Mineral Resources Minister Ignasius Jonan said on Friday that the nickel export curbs are "in line with President Joko Widodo's directives".
Indonesia's current account deficit reached US$31.1 billion (S$43.2 billion) in 2018. The widening deficits were an issue Mr Joko's political opponents frequently played up during his presidential campaign ahead of the April election. Mr Joko will be sworn in on Oct 20 to begin his second and final five-year term.
A senior government official had earlier argued that Indonesia could have recorded even higher deficits had the country not boosted efforts to climb up the value chain in the iron and steel sector, encouraging investors to build plants at home to process raw nickel into intermediate products such as stainless steel slabs.
Eoin Treacy's view
Indonesia has long sought to gain more economic benefit from its commodity exports. That was particularly true of the tin market when exports were limited to refined products in 2013. The aim was to try and build up the domestic refining business but the collapse in prices in 2014 and 2015 killed off that idea. It now appears Indonesia is attempting to do something similar with nickel exports.
Eoin's personal portfolio: crypto long increased July 15th 2019
Eoin Treacy's view
One of the most commonly asked questions by subscribers is how to find details of my open traders. In an effort to make it easier I will simply repost the latest summary daily until there is a change. I'll change the title to the date of publication of new details so you will know when the information was provided.
2019: The 50th year of The Chart Seminar
Eoin Treacy's view
The London Philharmonic Orchestra is holding a concert in David’s memory on October 5th October at the Royal Festival Hall. There is a reception between 5.30 and 6.45 in the Foyle Pavilion, Level 3, Green Side and subscribers are well to join David’s family there for light refreshments. Following the reception, we will move to the Beecham Bar, Blue Side, Level 5 for a short talk by Tim Walker, Chairman of the LPO.
If you wish to attend the concert as well, which includes a performance of Elgar’s Cello Concerto by the Young Musician of the Year, it begins at 7.30 and you may book tickets (£67) by telephone on 020 7840 4242 quoting the code Fuller Concert.
Since this is the 50th year of The Chart Seminar we will be conducting the event on October 3rd and 4th to coincide with the memorial on the Saturday.
In the meantime, if you have any questions, would like to attend, or have a suggestion for another venue please feel to reach out to Sarah at sarah@fullertreacymoney.com.
The full rate for The Chart Seminar is £1799 + VAT. (Please note US, Australian and Asian delegates, as non-EU residents are not liable for VAT). Annual subscribers are offered a discounted rate of £850. Anyone booking more than one place can also avail of the £850 rate for the second and subsequent delegates.