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Diamonds & gemstones

BIG PICTURE - Signs of renewed confidence in diamond market?

The eye-catching recent funding announcement from mining junior Firestone Diamonds (LON:FDI) pointed to signs of renewed confidence in the market for the precious stones.

The eye-catching recent funding announcement from mining junior Firestone Diamonds (LON:FDI) pointed to signs of renewed confidence in the market for the precious stones.

Analysts have said an improvement in the global economy, along with strengthening demand for diamonds in emerging countries, signals renewed consumption for the gemstones with a deficit between supply and demand beginning to show in 2015.

That might account for Firestone's success in raising the US$222mln (£135.6mln) required to develop its Liqhobong diamond mine in Lesotho and the inherent interest from investors in the project.

Having already secured a US$82.4mln debt facility, the group is raising US$60mln at 3p a share via the equity markets - bringing in significant investors Pacific Road and RCF VI.

This will allow the producer to bring its main treatment plant into production, with full production earmarked for early 2016.

Liqhobong is being developed as an open pit mine capable of extracting more than a million carats per year.

The Firestone statement emerged on the same day another junior company, Stellar Diamonds (LON:STEL) saw its shares similarly boosted as it made progress on the definitive feasibility study (DFS) for its Tongo kimberlite project in Sierra Leone.

Indeed, the diamond sector appears to be riding a mini wave as 2014 kicks into gear, after a disappointing 2013 from a demand perspective.

Producer Gem Diamonds (LON:GEMD), a £217mln company, for example, has risen around 16% since the middle of last month.

Diamondcorp(LON:DCP) and Paragon Diamonds (LON:PRG) have made good progress on their respective projects at Lace in South Africa and Lemphane in Lesotho, while Petra Diamonds (LON:PDL), which has assets in South Africa and Tanzania, has plodded up to 122p from around 109p at the beginning of December.

City broker Investec sees earnings and production growth at Petra in the next few years, as the underlying fundamentals in the diamond market improve.

Analyst Marc Elliott expects diamond prices to increase in value at 2% a year, but says it could well exceed that.

"Driving consumption is a growing middle class in developing nations like China increasingly expanding into luxury goods consumption. These factors are expected to lead to an evolving deficit by 2015," he says.

The analyst notes that world diamond production peaked in 2007 and looks set to decline longer term.

"The rarity of diamonds limits the supply side response, with the sector instead facing rising costs, falling supply and greater capital requirements as older mines get deeper."

Dominant issues for the sector last year included pricing pressures on rough, or unpolished, stones because of supply-side problems and also a fall in demand from buyers - notably from India.

In 2013 the Bain report on the global diamond market described it as having been on a "roller-coaster" ride since the financial crisis of 2008 but had shown signs of improvement in the first half of last year.

Prices had plunged in 2008 and 2009 but rebounded to historically high levels in 2010 and 2011, it highlighted.

"Retail sales of diamond jewellery grew 1.8% from 2011 through 2012 to US$72.1 billion, but the upstream and middle-market segments of the value chain came under pressure as overall prices for rough and polished diamonds declined by 14% and 13%."

In 2013, although Europe’s sales suffered, diamond sales in the US and Japan, the largest and third-largest diamond markets in the world, respectively, rose on accelerating gross domestic product (GDP) growth and seemed poised for continued growth, the authors note.

Looking ahead, the report says the rough-diamond market is expected to remain balanced from 2013 through 2017.

From 2018 onward, as existing mines get depleted and no major new deposits come online, supply is expected to decline, falling behind expected demand growth that will be driven by China, India and the US.

"Over the next 10-year period, supply and demand are expected to grow at a compound annual rate of 2.0% and 5.1%, respectively."

Indeed, the recovery in the global economy is sure to be a highly significant driver for the diamond sector - as highlighted by US broker Citi at the end of 2013.

Global output peaked at 175mln carats in 2006, but is now below 130mln carats per year.