SP Angel – Morning View – Thursday 20 06 19
Gold rockets to five year high as US Fed turns dovish
MiFID II exempt information – see disclaimer below
Anglo Asian* (LON:AAZ) – AGM Statement
Arafura Resources (ASX:ARU) – Talaxis to take 8% stake in Arafura for its Rare Earth project
Acacia Mining (LON:ACA) - North Mara gold mine claims of murder at contamination at Tanzanian gold mine
Gem Diamonds (LON:GEMD) –Sale of Ghaghoo mine
IronRidge Resources* (LON:IRR) – Cape Coast exploration update
Petropavlovsk (LON:POG) – Oversubscribed $125m convertible bond placing
Rio Tinto (LON:RIO) – Revised iron ore production guidance
Savannah Resources* (LON:SAV) – Minority Interest acquisition at Mina do Barroso
Serabi Gold (LON:SRB) – Coringa drilling results
Shanta Gold (LON:SHG) – High grade intersections to extend the life of mine at New Luika
Iran – Iran shots down US drone aircraft escalating tensions between Tehran and Washington.
- The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps announced its air force “targeted and shot down a Global Hawk, a US spy aircraft, when violated the airspace of the Islamic Republic of Iran,” early on Thursday.
- The US argued the incident happened in international airspace over the Strait of Hormuz.
- The news comes after the US ordered more troops to the region this week following an attack on two oil tankers last week.
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Economics
US – The US Fed offered the most dovish take on the economy yet with expectations growing for a rate cut as early as July 31, the date of the next FOMC meeting.
- Eight of the 17 Fed officials are predicting lower rates this years while Fed Chairman said the case for easing had strengthened.
- Chances of 25bp rate cut in July jumped to 76% on the back of the meeting with the probability of a 50bp reduction up at 24%, according to Bloomberg data.
- Mr Powell also suggested that a lot is dependent on the incoming economic data between now and the next FOMC meeting as well as the outcome of Trump and Xi at the G20 summit in Japan later this month.
US – BofAML fund manager survey shows high proportion of investors expect lower long-term bond yields
- The BofAML survey shows the percentage of investors expecting lower long-term bond yields is the highest since 2008.
- Investors are looking for lower interest rates to prop up the US, EU and Japanese economies due to Trade War disruption and the ongoing competitive impact of low-cost Chinese production.
China – CPI expected to rise by no more than 3% this year
- The statement came from an official at the National Development and Reform Commission (China Xinhua News).
UK – Retail sales fall 0.5% in May following 0.1% fall in April
- Retails sales are said to have pulled back due to cool weather delaying purchases of summer clothes (Reuters).
- Sales of clothing and footwear fell 4.5% on the month. Department store sales continue to fall largely due to the rise of online shopping.
Eurozone – Olli Rehn, an ECB Governing OCuncil member, argued weakening economic growth outlook may see a step up in support from monetary authorities.
- “We in the Governing Council are ready to act as appropriate unless there is improvement in the economic conditions,” Rehn told conference in Brussles.
- When asked if the ECB would be ready to cut rates or resume asset purchases, Rehn suggested “the whole range of instruments is on the table”.
EU Block Exemption Regulation expiration could cause Freight rates to skyrocket if shipping alliances end (gcaptain.com)
- The current EU Block Exemption Regulation ‘BER’ which allows shipping groups to operate alliances and vessel-sharing arrangements on container trades to and from Europe is set to expire on 25 April next year.
- If exemption is allowed to simply expire then shippers will risk being seen as anti-competitive and may stop sharing capacity.
- The result would inevitably be more transhipping and less efficient practices. This would cause shipping rates to rise and potentially block ports from efficient loading and unloading.
Currencies
US$1.1280/eur vs 1.1197/eur yesterday Yen 107.71/$ vs 108.29/$ SAr 14.251/$ vs 14.503/$ $1.270/gbp vs $1.254/gbp 0.691/aud vs 0.688/aud CNY 6.860/$ vs 6.905/$
Commodity News
Precious metals:
Gold US$1,383/oz vs US$1,345/oz yesterday
- Bullion surged the highest in more than five years as the US Federal Reserve indicates a readiness to cut interest rates. The dovish tones stood out as the Fed left its key rate unchanged on Wednesday and dropped a reference to being “patient” on borrowing costs while forecasting a larger miss of their 2% inflation target this year.
- Speaking on Wednesday, Chairman Jerome Powell noted that apparent progress on trade talks had “turned to greater uncertainty” and many Fed officials “now see that the case for somewhat more accommodative policy has strengthened.” The shift followed the European Central Bank’s dovish stance this week, as well as attacks on the Fed by President Donald Trump for not doing more to bolster the economy.
- Historical easing cycles and stimulus measures have proven to be a boon for gold, with the non-interest bearing safe haven metal rising almost 20% when the rates fell from 2007 to 2008.
- While unemployment is near a half-century low and salaries are increasing, Powell suggested that the labor markets might not yet be tight enough to generate the sort of the wage-driven rise in inflation that the Fed is seeking.
- Central banks around the world are getting increasingly concerned about slowing global growth amid the prolonged trade war. While the Bank of Japan kept monetary policy unchanged Thursday, Governor Haruhiko Kuroda is likely to reaffirm his willingness to add stimulus, joining his counterparts in Europe and the U.S.
Gold ETFs 72.6moz vs US$72.5moz yesterday
Platinum US$818/oz vs US$801/oz yesterday
Palladium US$1,523/oz vs US$1,496/oz yesterday
Silver US$15.34/oz vs US$14.97/oz yesterday
Base metals:
Copper US$ 5,988/t vs US$5,943/t yesterday
Aluminium US$ 1,796/t vs US$1,778/t yesterday
Nickel US$ 12,255/t vs US$11,875/t yesterday
Zinc US$ 2,503/t vs US$2,493/t yesterday
Lead US$ 1,916/t vs US$1,908/t yesterday
Tin US$ 19,050/t vs US$19,075/t yesterday
Energy:
Oil US$63.6/bbl vs US$62.3/bbl yesterday
Natural Gas US$2.282/mmbtu vs US$2.336/mmbtu yesterday
Uranium US$24.45/lb vs US$24.45/lb yesterday
Bulk:
Iron ore 62% Fe spot (cfr Tianjin) US$107.8/t vs US$107.2/t
Chinese steel rebar 25mm US$595.1/t vs US$588.5/t
Thermal coal (1st year forward cif ARA) US$62.2/t vs US$62.5/t
Coking coal futures Dalian Exchange US$208.5/t vs US$205.5/t
Other:
Cobalt LME 3m US$28,000/t vs US$28,000/t
NdPr Rare Earth Oxide (China) US$55,032/t vs US$53,219/t
- Chinese firms establish joint rare earths innovation centre in the country’s Hebei province as part of the plan to develop manufacturing hub in the region, according to the local government.
- The transition arrives amid speculation China may utilise its dominance in rare earths as leverage in its trade conflict with the United States.
- The centre in Xiongan New Area, a special economic zone around 100 km southwest of Beijing, groups six state-owned enterprises and seven listed firms as core shareholders, according to a statement by the local government.
- It will strive to build a “world-class rare earth advanced manufacturing cluster,” the statement added, noting that rare earths are playing an increasingly important role in IT, new energy vehicles, robotics and high-end medical equipment.
Lithium carbonate 99% (China) US$9,622/t vs US$9,558/t
Ferro Vanadium 80% FOB (China) US$39.0/kg vs US$39.0/kg
Antimony Trioxide 99.5% EU (China) US$5.6/kg vs US$5.7/kg
Tungsten APT European US$255-265/mtu vs US$260-270/mtu
Battery News
Electric commuter planes at Paris Airshow
- Eviation is showing a protototype of its nine-eater electric ‘Alice’ Aircraft for commuters in the US at the Paris Airshow.
- The plane joins an Airbus-backed hybrid which is part of Airbus’ pledge to halve its carbon emissions by 2050.
- Safran and Daher and also showing a scale model of the EcoPulse short-haul aircraft.
- Rolls Royce has also announced it is to buy an electric aerospace division with 180 specialist engineers and designers from Siemens in Germany
Solar, wind to generate half of the world’s electricity by 2050, report says
- The world will get about half of its electricity from solar, wind, and battery storage by 2050, according to a new BloombergNEF report.
- The report highlights electricity demand will increase 62% during that time, while other non-fossil fuel sources will have a role to play as well, as fossil fuels fade.
- From Bloomberg: By 2050, solar and wind will supply almost 50% of the world’s electricity, with hydro, nuclear and other renewable energy resources providing another 21%, according to BNEF. Coal will be the biggest loser in the power sector, with its share of global generation plunging from 37% today to 12% in 2050, BNEF said.
- BloombergNEF report solar, wind, and batteries will allow the power sector to “meet its share of emission cuts required under the Paris climate agreement, at least until 2030.” BNEF believes renewables could generate 41% of total electricity by that time.
- But after that, the report sees a need for other technologies to make deeper emission cuts, such as hydrogen, geothermal, or tidal energy, while considering that tech such as carbon capture may also eventually make a difference.
- By 2050, the report claims Europe will get 92% of its electricity from renewables, and China and India will also get about two-thirds from solar and wind.
- It’s not as bullish on the US transition to clean energy, predicting that just 43% of the country’s power will come from renewables by 2050.
- BNEF’s estimates are subdued compared to some other long-term studies in recent months. BNEF also points out that “even if every nation scrubs emissions from the power sector, there are still ample greenhouse gases from cars, trucks, ships, airplanes, heating systems and agriculture.”
- A study released in April claimed that 100% renewable energy is possible across all sectors by 2050, not just electricity, but in heat, transport, and desalination, as well. In that scenario, solar and wind would make up about 87% of the total energy supply by 2050, with bioenergy, hydropower, and geothermal making up most of the difference.
- Another report from the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) found that renewables could account for two-thirds of energy consumption and 86% of power generation by 2050.
- The recent IRENA study notes renewables are now the most inexpensive option for new power generation throughout most of the world, and BNEF’s numbers line up with that: Since 2010, the cost of wind power has dropped by 49%, and solar has plummeted 85%, according to BNEF. That makes them cheaper than new coal or gas plants in two-thirds of the world. Battery storage costs, meanwhile, have dropped 85% since 2010.
Company News
Anglo Asian* (LON:AAZ) 127p, Mkt Cap £145m – AGM Statement
BUY – TP Under Review
- The Company issued the AGM statement this morning highlighting strong production rates, low costs of operations, dividend paying status as well exciting exploration potential at its assets in Azerbaijan.
- The Company is holding an annual general meeting at 10.30am in London this morning.
- The team reported a 17%yoy increase in production to 83.7koz gold equivalent ounces (GEO) coming in the upper range of the guidance.
- AISCs dropped to $541/oz placing the Company at the lowest quartile of global gold producers.
- Profit before tax climbed more than four times form 2017 to $25.2m reflecting stronger sales volumes and lower costs.
- The Company announced 7USc in dividends in respect of 2018 implying strong 10.2% yield on 2018 average price of 53p.
- Additionally, the Company increased investment in exploration aiming to identify new areas of mineralisation both in proximity to existing processing facilities at Gedabek as well as greenfield targets at Ordubad.
- The team carried the first aerial geological survey across Gedabek license area during the year identifying both previously known as well as new prospective target (31 in total) that would be prioritised and followed up shortly; importantly, 20 anomalies are found within 300m from surface allowing for potential fast track and low cost open pit mining.
- The Company reiterated its 2019 annual guidance for 82-86 GEOs including 65-67.5koz in gold and 3.1-3.3kt in copper.
*SP Angel act as Nomad and broker to Anglo Asian Mining
Arafura Resources (ASX:ARU) A$0.1, Mkt cap A$78m – Talaxis to take 8% stake in Arafura for its Rare Earth project
- Talaxis, which is part of the Noble trading group is underwriting A$7.2m of a A$23.2m placing in Arafura Resources in Australia.
- Arafura Resources is probably Australia’s next magnet metal ‘NdPr’ producer from its Nolans Rare Earths project in the Northern Territory in Australia.
- Talaxis also holds a 49% stake in Mkango Resource’s subsidiary, Lancaster Resources, for its Songwe Hill rare earths project in Malawi.
- Talaxis will move to a 75% stake if it chooses to support a development decision
- The move appears to be part of a strategy by the trader to secure a significant proportion of non-Chinese rare earth supply going forward.
- Noble Group has continued to invest in early stage Rare Earth project development despite only recently returning to profit with US$75m of EBITDA reported in Q1 this year.
- Wesfarmers, the $40bn Australian agricultural group recently offered to acquire Lynas Corporation for A$1.5bn. The deal is reported to be dead after the shares rose above the indicative offer price and being knocked back by Lynas’ board. Lynas is looking to invest another $500m by 2025 on REE processing in the US and Malaysia.
- Lynas is looking to move its cracking and leacing process operations to W Australia from Malaysia where the government has imposed the condition of the removal of some 450,000t of waste from the country.
*SP Angel act as Nomad and broker to Mkango Resources
Acacia Mining (LON:ACA) 174p, Mkt cap £714m - North Mara gold mine claims of murder at contamination at Tanzanian gold mine
Gem Diamonds (LON:GEMD) 89.0p, Mkt Cap £123.6m –Sale of Ghaghoo mine
- Gem Diamonds reports the sale of its Ghaghoo diamond mine in Botswana which has been on care and maintenance since March 2017, to a locally registered Botswana company, Pro Civil Pty.
- Pro Civil will pay US$5.4m to acquire Gem Diamonds Botswana (GDB), which owns the mine. “GDB reported for the period ended 31 December 2018, loss before tax of BPW 49.5 million (US$ 4.9 million) and, as at the same date, had gross assets of BWP 42.3 million (US$ 3.9 million)”.
- The transaction, which is subject to regulatory approval in Botswana, is expected to be completed during Q3 2019.
- Gem Diamonds’ CEO, Clifford Elphick, while thanking the Botswana Government for its assistance and wishing Pro Civil well for the future, explained that the sale was consistent with the company’s strategy of disposing of non-core assets and pointed out that “Gem Diamonds remains focused on optimising production and efficiency at the Letšeng mine in Lesotho”.
Conclusion: Ghaghoo has been available for sale for some time and its disposal will help Gem Diamonds to concentrate on maximising the opportunity at its Letseng mine in Lesotho which continues to deliver large, valuable and high quality diamonds.
IronRidge Resources* (LON:IRR) 14.0p, Mkt Cap £43.6m – Cape Coast exploration update
- African-focused explorer, IronRidge Resources, report successful definition of pegmatite intersections in a comprehensive trenching programme at the Ewoyaa West target, one of a multiple pegmatite targets in the Cape Coast portfolio.
- Ongoing pitting and trenching activities within the Ewoyaa project area has defined over 840m strike continuous weathered pegmatite up to 100m width at surface, defined by a total of 525m across four trenches.
- Additional pegmatite has been intersected in southern pitting, providing potential for a further 1.25km strike at the Ewoyaa West target.
- A fifth trench was extended 190m east to test pitting intersections in-between Ewoyaa and Ewoyaa West, with over 60m of continuous weathered pegmatite intersected and remains open to the north and south in what is now called the Ewoyaa Middlings target.
- The potential for significant ‘blind’ pegmatite discoveries improves with new targets coinciding with low-lying ridges and no visible surface pegmatite. Additional sub-parallel ridges are evident within the topography and become a focus for pitting exploration.
- The newly identified pegmatite zones are important in enlarging the surface area by 50% within the immediate Ewoyaa project area; allowing for potential resource increase.
- A 13,200m phased Reverse Circulation (“RC”) and Diamond Core Drilling (“DD”) drill programme has been designed to test targets across the Cape Coast, with final meterage being commensurate with initial confirmation of spodumene below the base of weathering at Ewoyaa West and Middlings targets.
- Additional DD drilling has been planned over the Ewoyaa West target and Abonko for future metallurgical test-work and geological control, with the programme expected to commence during Q3 2019 following the wet season.
- Ghanaian environmental consultancy NEMAS has been engaged with baseline environmental and social studies commenced, fundamental to development studies.
Conclusion: The discovery of additional pegmatites is significant and will be fundamental in generating a substantial maiden resource at the Cape Coast portfolio. Confirmation of ‘blind’ pegmatites could support strong mining inventory growth as the Company advance defining the spodumene deposit in Ghana.
*SP Angel act as nomad and broker to IronRidge Resources
Petropavlovsk (LON:POG) 9.2p, Mkt Cap £305m – Oversubscribed $125m convertible bond placing
- The Company completed a significantly oversubscribed $125m 8.25% 2024 convertible bond placing today.
- The conversion price was set at 13.5 US cents (10.7p at 1.26 USDGBP rate) implying a 22.5% premium to the yesterday’s volume weighted average price.
- The placing included the $25m option that was taken up in full and is planned to be directed towards construction of the flotation plant facility at Pioneer.
- The remainder of proceeds will repay the outstanding $100m 9.00% 2020 convertible.
Conclusion: The deal replaces the existing convertible facility with a new longer dated and cheaper debt as well as provides capital to launch construction of the flotation facility (3.6mtpa first line) at Pioneer unlocking value in more than 4moz of refractory gold contained in mineral resources. The plant is expected to come online in Q4/20 supplying the flotation concentrate to the newly commissioned and operating POX facility at Pokrovka. Refractory ore mining at Pioneer will supply lower cost ounces to the flotation plant reflecting lower waste stripping volumes, higher grade material and better metallurgical recoveries while operational four autoclaves at Pokrovka POX offer flexibility and capacity to accommodate material from Malomir, Pioneer as well as third party concentrate.
Rio Tinto (LON:RIO) 4641.5p, Mkt cap £79.0bn – Revised iron ore production guidance
- Citing “operational challenges, particularly in the Greater Brockman hub in the Pilbara” Rio Tinto has revised its iron ore production guidance “to between 320 million tonnes and 330 million tonnes (previously between 333 million tonnes and 343 million tonnes)”.
- The company’s iron ore guidance was reduced in April this year to reflect the impact of cyclone Veronica when the declared force majeure on certain contracts and said that ““Rio Tinto’s Pilbara shipments in 2019 are expected to be at the lower end of the 338 and 350 million tonnes … guidance provided”.
Savannah Resources* (LON:SAV) 5.15p, Mkt Cap £45.4m – Minority Interest acquisition at Mina do Barroso
- Savannah obtain 100% interest in its flagship Mina do Barroso project in Portugal following approval at its AGM via an all-share transaction. The outstanding 25% interest was acquired from minority shareholders Slipstream Resources Investments, an existing shareholder in Savannah, which increase its interest to 16.1% from 5.1%.
- Consideration has been satisfied through the issue of 163m new ordinary shares of 1p each in Savannah at US$0.073 (circa. 5.63p) per share, ~13% premium to the last closing share price, valuing the Transaction at circa US$11.9m.
- Vendors have agreed to a 12-month lock-in arrangement on the Consideration Shares and a further 9-month orderly market restriction, following completion of the Transaction
- Sole ownership of the project gives Savannah greater exposure to the rising electric revolution, controlling Europe's most significant spodumene lithium deposit, with a JORC Compliant Mineral Resource Estimate currently standing at 27Mt and offering fundamental domestic material into the fastest growing lithium-ion battery global battery market.
- In addition, Savannah have signed an agreement with Gentor Resources to settle the deferred consideration related to the original acquisition of the Block 5 licence on 10 April 2014 as part of the strategic review of the Oman portfolio.
- The deferred consideration of US$3m (payable 50% in cash) relating to the share purchase agreement between the parties shall be cancelled in full return for the issue of US$200,000 worth of Ordinary Shares which are subject to a six month orderly market agreement; and a cash payment of US$100,000.
- CEO David Archer adds “as we move into a critical phase in the Project's definition, permitting and financing, we believe the simplified ownership structure has significant benefits, and provides our shareholders with greater exposure to the Project's long-term value.”
*SP Angel acts as Nomad to Savannah Resources
Serabi Gold (LON:SRB) 38.0p Mkt value £22.3m – Coringa drilling results
- Serabi Gold has released results from the final holes of its 2018/19 drilling programme at its Coringa project in Para State, Brazil where the results of the current Preliminary Economic Assessment (PEA), incorporating this drilling, are expected to be released “before the end of July 2019.”
- The results include the final two holes of the programme which have extended the southern limits of the Meio vein which “is shaping up to be a very significant orebody that has now been traced for a strike length of well over 1.3 kilometres”. Todays results also include independent assays from a further four holes “where the previous disclosure was only of assays results generated by the Company’s own laboratory.”
- Among the results highlighted today are:
- An intersection of 2.65m averaging 8.51g/t gold from a depth of 273.75m in hole COR0381 on the Meio 4 target. This intersection included a higher grade portion of 1.40m from 275m depth which averaged 15.82g/t gold. This hole also intersected 1.15m averaging 0.46g/t gold from 121m depth and 0.4m averaging 0.29g/t from 170.6m depth; and
- An intersection of 1.15m averaging 9.69g/t gold from a depth of 134.20m in hole COR0383 on the Meio 2 target. This intersection included a higher grade portion of 0.60m from 134.20m depth which averaged 17.74g/t gold. The hole also intersected several other gold bearing horizons grading less than 1 g/t gold both above and below this principal zone; and
- An intersection of 0.75m averaging 7.61g/t gold from a depth of 174.80m in hole COR0380 on the Meio 4 target; and
- An intersection of 0.80m averaging 0.44g/t gold from a depth of 248.90m in hole COR0374 on the Meio 4 target and an intersection of 0.70m averaging 0.39g/t gold from a depth of 225.50m in hole COR0377 on the Meio 4 target.
- In March this year, the company announced a 37% increase in the Coringa mineral resources estimate to an indicated resource of 845,000t at an average grade of 7.95g/t gold for 216,000oz of contained gold plus an additional 1.436mt classed as inferred at an average grade of 6.46g/t (298,000oz of gold). Results from the additional six holes reported today “are being incorporated into a further revision of the geological resource, which in turn will be incorporated into the PEA”.
- Commenting on the drilling, CEO, Mike Hodgson, said “This drilling campaign, which began in the fourth quarter of 2018, has increased the Meio resource significantly, extending the payable zone by some 575m of strike length to the south. The last holes drilled, COR0381 and COR0383 were drilled into this payable southern extension, with both intersecting excellent grades over mineable widths. COR0383 is especially pleasing as it is close the southern limit of the new payable zone, and the results suggest there is even more potential to the south.”
- Mr. Hodgson also explained that “From our experience at Palito and Sao Chico, we know that infill drilling on these veins from surface is impractical and that the best understanding is obtained from underground development and underground drilling. With the GUIA trial mining license (“GUIA”) in place, we are just awaiting final blasting permits, and once these are obtained, intend to commence an exploratory ramp into the Serra zone at Coringa, providing us with bulk sample data and better understanding to the orebody geometry”
Conclusion: The latest drilling results, while extending the known strike of the Meio Vein to 1.3km provide encouragement that further there may be further potential towards the south. The latest results are being incorporated in a revision to the March 2019 mineral resource estimate in the PEA which is expected to be released next month.
Shanta Gold (LON:SHG) 7.2p, Mkt Cap £57m – High grade intersections to extend the life of mine at New Luika
- The Company reported drilling results from the Phase 2 programme completed in Q2/19 at the Bauhinia Creek deposit (BC).
- The team intersected wide high grade mineralisation to the west of BC Central including:
- 2.4m at 5.26g/t from 153.7m (CSD119);
- 16.0m at 9.36g/t from 131.8m (CSD122);
- 7.1m at 16.10g/t from 102.8m (CSD123).
- Drillholes were spaced between 30-40m for a total strike of 120m with true widths estimated at >90% of the intersected widths in the holes.
- The intersected mineralisation lies currently outside of existing reserves and mine plan suggesting the life of mine is due to be extended.
- An updated Mineral Resource and mine plan are expected to be released in July 2019 that would incorporate drilling results from Phase 1 and 2.
Conclusion: Drilling results confirm high grade extensions of the mineralisation at Bauhinia Creek below the current 280m included in the mine plan and bode well for the future life of mine extension. Additionally, the orebody remains open at depth and subject to more drilling the team is likely to prove up more ounces at BC.
Analysts
John Meyer – 0203 470 0490
Simon Beardsmore – 0203 470 0484
Sergey Raevskiy – 0203 470 0474
James Mills -0203 470 0486
Sales
Richard Parlons – 0203 470 0472
Jonathan Williams – 0203 470 0471
Abigail Wayne – 0203 470 0534
Rob Rees – 0203 470 0535
SP Angel
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*SP Angel are the No1 integrated nomad and broker by number of mining brokerage clients on AIM according to the AIM Advisers Ranking Guide (joint brokerships excluded)
+SP Angel employees may have previously held, or currently hold, shares in the companies mentioned in this note.