Mike van Dulken at Accendo Markets, commented to clients this morning:
FTSE 100 called to open +20pts at 7425, holding overnight gains as it rebounds from yesterday evening’s test of 7400 for support. Bulls need a break above 7440 to overcome falling highs and reverse yesterday’s 7435 breakdown. Bears require a breach of 7420 for a retrace towards 7390. Watch levels: Bullish 7440, Bearish 7420
Calls for a positive start come courtesy of gains in Asia and on Wall St, thanks to the US Central Bank - the Fed - shifting from its patient stance to one more willing to entertain interest rate cuts next year to stimulate/sustain US growth in the face of rising economic uncertainties.
This marks a u-turn of its 2015-18 hiking cycle, and its patience since March 2019, and provides investors with more certainty about the outlook for the price of money. Cheaper for longer, especially if the ECB is forced to throw more stimulus at a struggling Eurozone and the Bank of England has to act when Brexit arrives.
Gold higher thanks to USD weakness after dovish Fed assessment. GBP stronger vs USD, a potential FTSE hindrance, although the commodity sector likes the USD drop with Copper and Oil and their respective Miners/Oil Major, although we note the Miners lower in Australia overnight.
In corporate news this morning;
Dixons Carphone FY like-for-like revenues +1% (UK & Irl electricals +1%, Int electricals +4%, UK & Irl mobile -4%). Pre-tax profits -22%, free cash flow -11%, net debt +6.4%, final div -42%. UK mobile changing faster than expected, will make a significant loss incoming year but breakeven within 2 years; accelerate £200m cost reduction promise by 2 years, and EBIT margin promise by a year. Headline pre-tax profit guided to £210m, -30% with £80m exceptional costs.
Meggitt agrees long-term partnership with Lufthansa maintenance unit to provide services in China.
Unite gets planning permission for 913-bed development in Middlesex Street in London.
Dunelm continued to see strong trading; expects FY results ahead of board’s previous expectations.
N Brown says retail market remains challenging, but has a clear strategy to deliver profitable digital growth; full year expectations unchanged.
Petropavlovsk places $125m of 8.25% guaranteed convertible bonds due 2024, refinancing its outstanding $100m 9% convertible bonds due 2020. Significantly oversubscribed, sold extra $25m.
Gem Diamonds to sell Botswana diamond mine for $5.4m
Sky News reports British Gas owner Centrica will cut 700 management and back-office jobs, part of its plan to cut 4000 jobs by 2020 to counter price caps and falling customer numbers.
In focus today:
After a more dovish Fed last night, it’s over to the Bank of England (12pm) and its latest assessment of the UK economy and monetary policy, with Brexit looming. Watch for any deviation from the 9-0 committee’s unanimity on leaving rates and QE unchanged.
Data of note includes UK Retail Sales (9.30am), forecast to post weaker growth in May. The same is expected of the US Philly Fed (1.30pm), although if Monday’s very weak Empire Manufacturing print is anything to go by, beware the risk of a similarly negative result.
Central Bank speakers on the roster today: Bank of England Governor Carney (9pm) and the European Central Bank’s (ECB) De Guindos (8.30am).