Morning Market Pulse - BHP acts to reduce Tail risk


Markets Overview:


FTSE 100 called to open +20pts at 7280 within touching distance of April falling highs (resistance?) at 7290. Otherwise, this week’s rising channel rebound remains intact. Bulls need a break above 7290 for a chance to rally towards mid-May highs of 7373. Bears require a breach of 7250 for a retrace towards 7190. Watch levels: Bullish 7300, Bearish 7250

Calls for a positive start can be attributed to gains in Asia echoing Wall St's close. Sentiment  boosted by trade talk optimism (US-Mexico, not US-China) and higher oil prices ahead of a US Jobs report. Investors hope this will be weak, vindicating Fed dovishness and apparent willingness to act (read: cut rates) to sustain the US economy should trade tensions require intervention.


In corporate news this morning;


GlaxoSmithKline gets US FDA approval for self-administration of Nucala for severe eosinophilic asthma, giving healthcare professionals a choice of how and where their patients receive treatment.


BHP establishes 'Tailings Taskforce' accountable for improvement/assurance/technology of tailings storage facilities across portfolio; Brumadinho failure strengthened resolve on dam safety.


Smiths Group appoints JehanZeb Noor as Chief Executive Officer of Smiths Medical division.


Ferrexpo expects significant rise in first half profits; helped by higher iron ore prices and lower oil and gas prices; Appoints former E&Y director amid Blooming charity review.


Invesco sells £144.4m worth of shares (38m at 380p) in AJ Bell on behalf of some clients, according to Numis. Maintains 16% stake, down from 25% since 160p IPO; held 44% before IPO.


Games Workshop expects FY profit growth of at least £80m (+7.3%) on sales of £254m (+15.5%).


Fitch affirms HSBC’s Viability Rating (VR) at 'aa-'; Maintains 'AA-' Long-Term Issuer Default Rating (IDR) on Rating Watch Negative (RWN); heightened uncertainty over Brexit, and a possible no-deal.


Fitch affirms Barclays' Viability Ratings; Maintains IDR at A, on Negative Watch. Progress on restructuring and legacy conduct, but uncertainty over Brexit, especially a no-deal Brexit.


In focus today:


Consensus expects US Non-Farm Payrolls (1.30pm) of 185K vs. 263K last month, bringing it back to its average. Much made of Wednesday’s ADP Report (27K vs 180K est vs. 275K prev.) but both have form in delivering jumps and drops which succumb to mean reversion. ADP’s may prove more pronounced this month, NFP having registered its big drop and recovery in Jan/Feb.


After fresh Fed dovishness talk this week, more attention may be paid to Average Earnings growth for any signs of deflationary forces which could force the Fed to act in an effort to be proactive and sustain US growth in the face of trade tensions.


UK Halifax House Price data (8.30am) could impact UK Housebuilders.

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