Mike van Dulken at Accendo Markets, commented to clients this morning:
FTSE 100 called to open -30pts at 7130, still within a 2-week falling channel, but bouncing off 5-month intersecting support at 7111. Bulls need a break above 7145 to close this morning’s gap down and give confidence in a rebound towards channel highs of 7230. Bears require a breach of 7111 to extend the channel down towards 7000. Watch levels: Bullish 7105, Bearish 7105
Calls for a negative open derive from continued preference for safe-havens over risk assets as trade tensions remain to the fore, China suggesting Washington's demands for a trade deal are exorbitant. This follows Trump adding Mexico to his cross-hairs in an effort to keep pressure on businesses looking to circumnavigate tariffs.
The spot Oil prices remain under significant pressure, traders fearing a worsening of the trade spat, slowing the global economy, and US oversupply. This is despite future pricing suggesting a tight market for coming months, fuelled by sanctions (Iran, Venezuela) and OPEC trying to buoy price by cutting output while Trump urges it not to.
Copper is extending its bounce, potentially helped by positive China PMI Manufacturing overnight, while Gold benefits from the aforementioned safe haven demand. GBP off its highs vs USD, helping FTSE bounce, weaker USD helping commodities other than Oil.
In corporate news this morning;
AstraZeneca’s Lynparza nearly doubled disease-free survival in germline BRCA-mutated metastatic pancreatic cancer; 22% of patients free of disease progression after 2 years vs. 10% on placebo; Lynparza now demonstrated benefit in 3 different cancers.
Separately, AstraZeneca’s Phase 3 Pacific trial of Imfinzi, for non-small cell lung cancer, showed 57% of patients alive at three years, vs 43.5% on placebo. Furthermore, Starpharma has signed a second agreement with AstraZeneca to develop an dendrimer enhanced product version of one of its oncology treatments.
Smith & Nephew completes acquisition of Brainlab orthopaedic joint reconstruction business.
Sirius Minerals received 4 conversion notices in respect of the $106.6m Guaranteed Convertible Bonds due 2027 in connection with the Company's Stage 2 financing, pursuant to which it will allot and issue 17.2M new shares of 0.25p each.
Kier continues to experience volume pressure in Highways, Utilities and Housing Maintenance; Full year Buildings revenues to be lower than forecast. Group revenue to be broadly flat; underlying operating profit c. £25m lower than previous expectations, likely to report net debt at 30 June 2019 which would have an adverse impact on average month-end net debt position. Net costs for Future Proofing programme now expected to be c. £15m higher than previously forecast.
Rockhopper Exploration update on Egypt portfolio; Al Jaharra-11 producing 787 bopf, Kuwait Energy evaluating gas commercialisation. Al Jaharra-7 spudded 26 May, expects 60 days to drill’ Abu Sennan producing 150 bopd.
UK Oil & Gas completes acquisition of further interest in PEDL143 Exploration Licence from Europa Oil & Gas and Union Jack Oil for £412,500; now owns 67.5% interest in the license.
Gulf Keystone Petroleum CFO Sami Zouari to step down by 2 December
In focus today:
PMI Manufacturing prints from the Eurozone hot on the heels of China overnight. Expectations are for the Eurozone to give up ground, with Italy and Germany falling further into contraction, dragging on the region as a whole. The UK may give up ground, but remains well into growth territory.
This afternoon, US PMI Manufacturing (2.45pm) may follow the Eurozone lower, however ISM Manufacturing (3pm) may, in fact, strengthen, in spite of Price inflation, with the Jobs component climbing.
This week’s main events include Eurozone Inflation and US Factory Orders tomorrow, US and European PMI services and US ADP Jobs on Wednesday, Eurozone GDP and the ECB Policy Update on Thursday capped off by the US Jobs Report on Friday.