Alibaba Defies China Slowdown; Sales, Earnings Top Estimates


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Comments of the Day

16 May 2019



Video commentary for May 15th 2019



Eoin Treacy's view

A link to today's video commentary is posted in the Subscriber's Area. 

Some of the topics discussed include: alt-coins break out, bitcoin still firm, stock markets rebound from the region of their respective trend means, Treasuries remain firm, Gundlach believes MMT inevitable, I agree, 



Ethereum And Ripple's XRP Soar As Bitcoin Treads Water--Here's Why

This article by Billy Bambrough for forbes may be of interest to subscribers. Here is a section:

Ethereum and Ripple's XRP have climbed sharply this week as the bitcoin and cryptocurrency industry comes together for one of the biggest events in the cryptocurrency calendar starting—Blockchain Week NYC and CoinDesk’s Consensus 2019 event, running all this week out of the New York Hilton Midtown.

Bitcoin and cryptocurrency analyst Nik Patel has meanwhile found that, historically, after bitcoin surges higher smaller cryptocurrencies such as ethereum and Ripple's XRP generally rally hard in the aftermath.

"Of the previous four [alt coin] bear cycles, the average drawdown has been 69.7%. The current drawdown of this [altcoin] bear cycle is 66.5%. The average growth experienced across the past five [altcoin] bull cycles was 617%," Patel said via Twitter, suggesting we could be about to see a further rise in the value of many so-called altcoins.


Eoin Treacy's view

A big question for investors is always whether to bet on the leader continuing to outperform and when to look at laggards that have the potential to experience a catch-up play.



Eoin's personal portfolio - cryptocurrency long opened



Eoin Treacy's view

Details of this trade are posted in the Subscriber's Area. 



Email of the day - on winners form the trade war:

As you say, the US has many alternative sources of cheap goods but there are limited sources of US technology. China also has no alternative buyers of its products. Round One of the international confrontation will be won by the US.


Eoin Treacy's view

Buyers can always look elsewhere because there is always someone who is willing to provides services at a lower cost or who can manufacture a copycat item which is “good enough” Sellers have to focus on retaining that competitive edge but often have a hard time replacing lost customers, particularly when they are have already maxed out their growth.



Alibaba Defies China Slowdown; Sales, Earnings Top Estimates

This article by Lulu Yilun Chen for Bloomberg may be of interest to subscribers. Here is a section:

Revenue climbed to 93.5 billion yuan ($13.6 billion) in the three months ended in March, about 1.8% above estimates as adjusted earnings-per-share of 8.57 yuan topped projections for 6.5 yuan. Alibaba expects sales in the current year to jump at least 33% to more than 500 billion yuan.

As Alibaba pushes deeper into businesses like cloud computing, it’s getting better at understanding e-commerce customers and making money from recommendations based on their preferences. The move is driving more sales than traditional search and boosting its ability to sell targeted advertising to merchants on its main Taobao platform. That is bolstering revenue growth even as escalating U.S.-Chinese tensions threaten to further dampen the world’s No. 2 economy.

“The results were really good, especially given how the macro economy hasn’t been that great," said Steven Zhu, an analyst with Pacific Epoch in Shanghai. “It’s a great sign that core e-commerce was growing strong.”


Eoin Treacy's view

Ecommerce has more penetration among consumers in China than in the USA or Europe not least because consumer attitudes towards consumption are not as embedded with brick and mortar as they are elsewhere. That is driving consumption, particularly among the high spending millennial generation towards online shopping and following brand representatives on social media.



2019: The 50th year of The Chart Seminar



Eoin Treacy's view

There will be a memorial concert for David at the Royal Festival Hall on October 5th. It looks like we will have a room at the Royal Festival Hall for an hour before the concert for a memorial. Wine and canapes will be served. Afterward we will retire to the Benefactor's Lounge where Tim Walker, Chairman of the LPO will dedicate the concert in David's memory. The concert will be from 7:30 to 10pm. If anyone would like to attend the concert in addition to the memorial there will be a box to tick on the booking form which I will provide as soon as I have it.   

Since this is the 50th year of The Chart Seminar we will be conducting the event on October 3rd and 4th to coincide with the memorial on the Saturday.

In the meantime, if you have any questions, would like to attend, or have a suggestion for another venue please feel to reach out to Sarah at [email protected].  

The full rate for The Chart Seminar is £1799 + VAT. (Please note US, Australian and Asian delegates, as non-EU residents are not liable for VAT). Annual subscribers are offered a discounted rate of £850. Anyone booking more than one place can also avail of the £850 rate for the second and subsequent delegates.








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