Morning Market Pulse - Compass points guidance higher


Mike van Dulken & Vlad Totia at Accendo Markets, commented to clients this morning:


Markets Overview:


FTSE 100 called to open +22pts at 7261, extending a 2-day bounce from 7130. Bulls need a break above 7280 to overcome recent resistance. Bears require a breach of 7230 overnight lows for a chance of a retrace. Watch levels: Bullish 7290, Bearish 7220.


Calls for a positive open come as US-China trade talks fears ease on optimistic comments from Donald Trump. Asian markets rebounded on the optimistic news, ignoring mixed economic data from China. US markets also moved to the upside with the S&P 500 closing up 0.8% and the NASDAQ up 1.1%. This global market sigh of relief could benefit the FTSE.

Gold ($1295) just slightly off its highs as trade talks tensions ease but investors keep a certain level of cautiousness. Brent Crude Oil ($71.2) slightly higher after drone attacks on Saudi infrastructure and build-up of crude inventory. Copper ($2.73) to the upside amidst trade war fears easing. GBP is still weak against USD consolidating around $1.29 after breaking down through yesterday’s support.


In corporate news this morning;


TUI Q2 revenues -1.4% (H1 +1.7%); underlying EBITA -63.2% (H1 -77.1%), reflecting ongoing weak demand environment in Markets & Airlines; Holidays performs well; reiterates 29 March guidance.


Hargreaves Lansdown; 4-month net new business -12.1% YoY (YTD -18.1% YoY); Net new clients +47%, Net Revenues +5.9% YoY (+8% YTD); AUM +13.8% to new record high; Whilst political and macro-economic uncertainty remains, confident...well positioned to deliver attractive growth.


Compass Group H1 underlying revenues +6.6% (N. America +7.9%, Europe +5.5%, RoW +3.2%), operating profit +5.8%, EPS +6.5%, free cash flow +14%, interim dividend +6.5%; After strong H1, guidance for full year increased (organic revenue growth and margin progression similar to 2018).


Spirax Sarco: While organic sales growth in the first four months has been strong, lower of forecasts for Industrial Production mean overall expectations of organic growth and trading margins for full-year unchanged to those set out in March.


Aston Martin Q1 Revenues +10% YoY, cars sold +9.7%, adj. EBITDA -35%, swings to adj. operating loss (-£3.2m vs +£22m), pre-tax loss £17.3m vs £2.8m profit. Operating cash flow strong; net debt -27.9%. Reiterates guidance.


Kingfisher Q1 sales +0.3% (+0.8% like-for-like), UK & Irl +5% (+3.4% LFL), France -5.1% (-3.7% LFL); Other Int +0.7% (+4.2% LFL); Trading in-line, Full year expectations unchanged.


Experian FY revenues +6%, EBIT +5%, pre-tax +1%, interim dividend +4%; FY20 organic revenue growth seen in 6-8% range, Benchmark EBIT growth at/above revenue growth.; $400M buyback.


British Land full year like-for-like rental growth only just offset impact of retail CVAs; portfolio value -4.8% (Retail -11.1%; Offices +1.1%, Developments +10.8%); EPRZ NAV -6.4%; dividend +3%; Retail weakness a worry.


William Hill sees 2019 in line as four-month net revenue rises 2%; CYBG swings to H1 pre-tax profit after Virgin Money acquisition; Meggitt reiterates FY guidance; Cineworld revenues fall in first 4 months of 2019.


Cobham to make one-off net tax payment of £55m in H1 to settle tax dispute with UK Govt; Sees up to £60M additional tax from EC State Aid probe.


In focus today:


Digestion of overnight China data (Industrial Production and Retail Sales) in light of the US-China trade war and Trump’s more optimistic comments. Watch how Miners react.


Second estimate for Eurozone Q1 GDP (10am) is forecast at 0.4% QoQ and 1.2% YoY. Watch EUR.

US Empire State Manufacturing (1.30pm) may have given up some of last month’s bounce in May. US Retail Sales (1.30pm) will give us the latest on stateside consumer confidence while Industrial and Manufacturing Production (2.15pm) offer an update on business. Watch USD.

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