U.S. Consumer Prices Trail Estimates, Testing Powell's View


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11 May 2019



Big Picture Long-Term Video May 10th 2019



Eoin Treacy's view

A link to this week's Big Picture Long-Term video is posted in the Subscriber's Area. 



China Armed With Powerful Market Weapons in Duel With Trump

This article by Katherine Greifeld for Bloomberg may be of interest to subscribers. Here is a section:

Chinese policy makers could devalue the yuan to offset the impact of U.S. duties on China’s economy. The offshore yuan weakened 5.5% against the dollar in 2018, drawing Trump’s ire and fueling speculation that the country was deliberately weakening its currency. While it has fallen 1.8% this week, the currency rose on Friday after the People’s Bank of China set its daily fixing at a stronger-than-expected level.

However, China’s painful experience with devaluing the yuan in 2015, which prompted capital to flee the nation, is likely to dissuade a similar move, according to Tao Wang, UBS Group AG’s chief China economist and head of Asia economic research. “China doesn’t like the self-fulfilling outflows that come as a result of depreciation, which tend to diminish domestic confidence,” she said. “In addition, yuan depreciation last year angered the Trump administration and led to higher U.S. tariffs.”


Eoin Treacy's view

Watch your own backyard first, worry about everything else afterwards has been the Chinese response to the imposition of additional tariffs on its US exports. The first order of business appears to have been to do what was necessary to avoid a negative reaction in the domestic stock market. That was achieved by clear support coming through for the A-shares market and it posted an upside key day reversal. This action is a testament to the fact that bull markets in China are state sponsored.



Fed Seen as More Likely to Cut Rates After U.S. Tariff Boost

This article by Rich Miller for Bloomberg may be of interest to subscribers. Here is a section:

The Federal Reserve probably will be more inclined to cut interest rates now that President Donald Trump has followed through on his threat to increase tariffs on U.S. imports from China. But it won’t rush into doing so.

While the higher levies will put upward pressure on inflation by raising import prices, the central bank will likely be more attentive to the potential drag they’ll exert on the economy by depressing consumer and business spending, Fed watchers said.

“We would expect the Fed to initially focus on the growth implication and look past the inflation impact,’’ Michael Feroli, chief U.S. economist at JPMorgan Chase & Co. in New York, said in a May 7 note to clients.


Eoin Treacy's view

The Federal Reserve is highly unlikely to raise rates against a background of low domestic inflation and heightening international tensions. That has been one of the primary reasons bond market investors have concluded we are at the top of the interest rate cycle.



U.S. Consumer Prices Trail Estimates, Testing Powell's View

This article by Jeff Kearns and Reade Pickert for Bloomberg may be of interest to subscribers. Here is a section:

At the same time, apparel prices dropped steeply for a second month, falling 0.8% in April after a 1.9% March drop that was the most since 1949. Apparel only accounts for just over 3% of the CPI but a new methodology in March had dragged down the overall index.


Eoin Treacy's view

I thought the above was an interesting figure in light of a conversation I had with a friend who is the owner of a garment factory in Los Angeles a couple of days ago. He said the tariffs were terrible for his business because they fall on imports of fabric but not on finished products.



Virgin Galactic Moves Into Spaceport as Passenger Flights Nears

This article by Justin Bachman for Bloomberg may be of interest to subscribers. Here is a section:


Virgin Galactic already has about 700 customers who are each paying $250,000 for a 90-minute flight. Branson’s space effort had suffered delays due to major engineering changes that were required after the 2014 crash of its VSS Enterprise, which killed pilot Michael Alsbury.

Virgin Galactic plans a few additional test flights from New Mexico in late summer or early fall, with additional employees along for the ride as the company finalizes its operating procedures.

“We want to make sure we have a very choreographed service and offering planned out,” Whitesides said. “We want to give the pilots a few times to just fly it.”

Of the work remaining to be done, Whitesides said “the No. 1 thing is we need to finish installation of the commercial cabin. Our interiors team is sort of going through that process to create the world-class Virgin cabin everyone expects—and that’s going to entail a lot of work.”

Beyond the cabin work, Virgin Galactic is also ferrying its ground and training equipment from California. “We’ve moved from the realm of space-age physics to logistics,” he said.


Eoin Treacy's view

We are at the dawn of commercial space flight and that represents the creation of a brand-new investment arena, which for the moment is primarily in private hands. Nevertheless, there are going to be ancillary movements in a host of supporting sectors such as tourism, communication, defense, manufacturing, experimentation, mining etc.



2019: The 50th year of The Chart Seminar



Eoin Treacy's view

There will be a memorial concert for David at the Royal Festival Hall on October 5th. It looks like we will have a room at the Royal Festival Hall for an hour before the concert for a memorial. Wine and canapes will be served. Afterward we will retire to the Benefactor's Lounge where Tim Walker, Chairman of the LPO will dedicate the concert in David's memory. The concert will be from 7:30 to 10pm. If anyone would like to attend the concert in addition to the memorial there will be a box to tick on the booking form which I will provide as soon as I have it.   

Since this is the 50th year of The Chart Seminar we will be conducting the event on October 3rd and 4th to coincide with the memorial on the Saturday.

In the meantime, if you have any questions, would like to attend, or have a suggestion for another venue please feel to reach out to Sarah at [email protected].  

The full rate for The Chart Seminar is £1799 + VAT. (Please note US, Australian and Asian delegates, as non-EU residents are not liable for VAT). Annual subscribers are offered a discounted rate of £850. Anyone booking more than one place can also avail of the £850 rate for the second and subsequent delegates.



Eoin's personal portfolio: precious metal long initiated March 8th



Eoin Treacy's view

Details of this trade are posted in the Subscriber's Area. 


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