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Are Theresa May and Jeremy Corbyn About to Agree a Brexit Deal?

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Video commentary for May 1st 2019

 

 

Eoin Treacy's view

A link to today's video commentary is posted in the Subscriber's Area. 

Some of the topics covered include: Fed statement is neutral but the market had hoped for a sooner end to quantitative tightening. stocks and bonds ease, copper pulls back sharply, Dollar steady, gold stable, oil steady, 

 

 

Email of the day on crude oil prices:

Please check on my enquiry below (sent to Eoin on 16.4.2019): [On 12/4/2019, you wrote "Nevertheless, a great deal of additional supply, internationally, becomes economic above $80 so that level represents a significant Rubicon for prices." I presume the $80 refers to the Brent Crude Oil price. What is the equivalent Rubicon price for the WTI? Thanks in advance.] I have not seen a reply to my query above. Can you please check what happened?

 

Eoin Treacy's view

Thank you for this email which I am only seeing now because of previously undiscovered issue with the contact us form on the site. If anyone sent an email which has not been replied to in the last couple of weeks please resend it.

 

 

Email of the day on the outlook for Wall Street:

Thank you for your analysis in Friday’s audio/video. very much appreciated. The Russell 2000 has been referred to by David and you as the canary in the coal mine. Could a break above 1600 signal the end of the consolidation in the stock market in the USA or do we maybe also need to see a further rise of the Dow Transport index? The USA banks and KBW banks index are trying to go up which is positive. As you can see, I am trying to find more reasons to signal the end of the consolidation.

We are entering the sell in May and go away period but last year September was a period to be back to sell and short the market. The value of this wisdom could be limited. could we accelerate before September? A number of USA shares as your mentioned are doing great. Can this market accelerate with a small breath basis?

My question is could the European indices follow the USA indices if and when they accelerate?

P.S. I asked Sarah some weeks ago to adjust the shares being incorporated in the Dutch AEX Imcd/Adyen have been added to the AEX and other shares were removed from the index

 

Eoin Treacy's view

Thank you for this email which I am only seeing now because of previously undiscovered issue with the contact us form on the site. If anyone sent an email which has not been replied to in the last couple of weeks please resend it.

 

 

Powell Says Policy Appropriate With No Bias to Hike or Cut

This article by Christopher Condon and Steve Matthews for Bloomberg may be of interest to subscribers. Here is a section:

The committee repeated language from its previous meeting, saying it “will be patient as it determines what future adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate may be appropriate,’’ according to a statement Wednesday following a two-day gathering in Washington.

The unanimous 10-0 decision left the target range for the benchmark federal funds rate at 2.25 percent to 2.5 percent.

The Fed’s emphasis on subdued inflation prompted knee-jerk buying of government debt as traders added to positioning for a rate cut. However, that initial rally reversed on Powell’s comments on appropriate policy and transient inflation.

 

Eoin Treacy's view

The Dollar has been particularly firm against a wide basket of currencies for the last six months and that is despite the announcement from the Fed last year that they are not going to raise rates. Therefore, there must be another reason for the currency’s strength.

 

 

Are Theresa May and Jeremy Corbyn About to Agree a Brexit Deal?

This article by Tim Ross and Robert Hutton for Bloomberg may be of interest to subscribers. Here is a section:

On Wednesday, May signaled she could move on one of her key red lines and allow the U.K. to sign up to some kind of permanent customs union with the EU. The pound strengthened.

“There is a greater commonality in terms of some of the benefits of a customs union that we’ve already identified between ourselves and the official opposition,” May told a parliamentary committee. “Looking at the balance of these issues is part of the discussion. Can we come to an agreement on that? I hope we will be able to.”

May invited Corbyn to work on a cross-party deal last month in a desperate attempt to get an agreement, after the blueprint she negotiated with the European Union was rejected for a third
time by Parliament.

With local elections taking place on Thursday, the talks have been low-key this week, but the government is planning one more big meeting on May 7 or 8 to decide whether a consensus
with Labour is possible.

 

Eoin Treacy's view

Customs, taxation, regulation, immigration represent the key words of the Brexit debate. By conceding to a customs union, the ability to form an independent regulatory environment falls by the wayside. The opportunity to negotiate trade deals independently also disappears.

 

 

2019: The 50th year of The Chart Seminar

 

 

Eoin Treacy's view

I have had word from the inestimable Mrs. Fuller that the London Philharmonic Orchestra are planning a memorial concert on October 5th at the Royal Festival Hall. It is envisaged that there will be drinks and canapes afterwards. Since this is the 50th year of The Chart Seminar we will be conducting the event on October 3rd and 4th.

I also plan on holding a New York event, potentially in June, and am in discussions with a partner in how best to organise it.

In the meantime, if you have any questions, would like to attend, or have a suggestion for another venue please feel to reach out to Sarah at [email protected].  

The full rate for The Chart Seminar is £1799 + VAT. (Please note US, Australian and Asian delegates, as non-EU residents are not liable for VAT). Annual subscribers are offered a discounted rate of £850. Anyone booking more than one place can also avail of the £850 rate for the second and subsequent delegates.

 

 

Eoin's personal portfolio: precious metal long initiated March 8th

 

 

Eoin Treacy's view

Details of this trade are posted in the Subscriber's Area. 

 

 

 

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