Surprisingly it's been a pretty good time....


Surprisingly it's been a pretty good time with the markets deciding all the delays to Brexit a good thing.

The delays in particular has given a lift to the small cap market and FTSE 250 and all my accounts have seen a serious move up.

Indeed I am sure most stock market traders/investors have had a tremendous run up to Easter - so well done us!

However, I don't know how long this can keep going and I have held onto quite a lot of cash still and I am on alert for potential problems down the line.

Brexit won't be as big a problem as a hard left government. Corbyn is quite likely to win an election with the right totally split.

The only good news with the fact he is now way ahead in the polls is that the Tories would be bonkers to hold an election.

However, it is worth thinking about what shares might do well/badly in a hard left environment. Cash certainly would be worth considering as would learning how to go short.

For now though I am carrying on as normal!

I bought some Synthomer (LON:SYNT) which came up at the last seminar. This was the idea that won the £100 prize for best trading idea at that seminar!

A very interesting one. It's a speciality chemical supplier, in particular, polymers.

Its profits are going up nicely and it pays nearly 4pc dividend. Looks like a decent longer-term hold which could bring in the money and it could also
get a re-rating higher on good news.

Negatives? The net debt is a little on the high side but well within my usual paremetres and that is also in the price with its low multiple.

It's very liquid as it's worth over a billion and firmly inside the FTSE 250.

I've bought some of payments company Network International (LON:NETW)

This is the biggest listing in Europe so far this year and looks one to get a stake in for a long term potential winner.

Mastercard has bought 50 million shares as a cornerstone investment.

I intend to hang on and not worry about a stop for now as it will be volatile and buy more as hopefully it rises.

It should get a boost soon when it should get included in the FTSE 250 index in the next promotion/demotion shake up that's not far away.

Fund managers will have to buy in. At any rate I can imagine Network's share price will be a lot higher in the future.

I bought GVC (LON:GVC) after the recent sell off. The sell off as I wrote last time was caused by the bungled big sales of two directors.

The price looks too low now - after all this is a massive bookie now and should soon start to head back to 700p plus.

I have averaged up on a few shares going well.

Always average up and hardly ever average down is the winning formula. Averaging down is the road to not making much. Indeed if you are thinking of averaging down on something consider taking the loss on it instead!

Or else you will hold it foreever while it sinks further or even goes bust, thus affecting your ability to make the big money. You can make some money if you are an average downer, but believe me, you won't make that much. Those who average down don't realise they are in the grip of confirmation bias which means they will never listen to anything negative about the share going down and will stick to it like a loyal football fan.

Investors also who only ever sell things that have made a profit and never sell anything that's made a loss will end up making little profit over time.

The only way to get out of confirmation bias et all is to sell everything you have that is down by more than 35% or more. Don't even look and see what it is. You'll feel much better after you dumped the losers and you'll have lots of cash ready for new buys - and this time, have stop losses!

First average up? I've bought some more Entertainment One (LON:ETO). A delicious long-term winner and as it goes up, it is time to keep buying and average up.

ETO has made a big acquisition which looks very sensible, and also raised a lot of money at 450p very easily showing there is a lot of backing for it. It's an odd one in a way. Not one I would usually touch because of the big debt but it's fine as it is backed by a massive content library worth £1bln plus.

Almost inevitable I think that an apple, amazon or netflix will eventually bid for it and then we could be looking at 650p. It's one of those that should also be safeish to own even under a Corbyn govt.

I've bought back some AB Dynamics (LON:ABDP) after taking some profits on it previously. This car tester is in the right niche area at the right time.

It appears to have a lot of work on its hands and has had to enlarge its ability to test.

While it does begin to look expensive, the thing is to look further down the road as driverless cars will need endless testing. The shares could easily accelerate further.

I also averaged up and bought more of recent buy Oxford Metrics (LON:OMG).

There has been some very decent buying going on in this one and once through 100p, we could see 120p quickly.

And... another buy in payments company Safecharge (LON:SCH).

As I mentioned above I do like payments companies as they are in such a hot area of the market with plenty of market share to go for.

Safecharge also pays out a fantastic dividend since I've held it.

It must be a takeover candidate sooner or later even though it has one major shareholder.

I shorted Lyft (NASDAQ:LYFT)  which floated in the states. The valuation looks crazy! This is the rival to Uber. BTW Uber said it might never make a profit, a definite lol. That floats shortly and will be looking to short that too.

I tried to short some more Lyft but the SB firms refused so perhaps itn is hard to short now?

A sell then buyback in tiddler K3c. It just kept on falling so I had to sell my last bit for a small profit.  It soon became apparent why when a profits warning was released. One does wonder if this warning should have been released a lot earlier? It was certainly flagged by the selling.

Normally I would steer clear but I did buy back a few as perhaps the price was well oversold given the already battered share price. Pays a decent dividend and has cash so doesn't look like a bust or anything like that especially as decent profits are still forecast by the company. Potential massive upside here if it gets back on track.

I sold H and T (seemed at the top of its range) at the buy price using direct access which was rather decent as the spread was quite wide, profit banked is £890. If you
want to find out how to buy at sell prices and sell at buy prices, so cutting out the spread totally, come to a seminar to see how I do it live!

Elsewhere a plethora of great statements and results have given the portfolio a massive lift in recent days.

Where to start? Today? GB Group (LON:GBG announced a brilliant statement which has pushed the share price up massively. I hold a lot of GB and
have done for years so a good start to the day.

Also Telecom Plus updated. The initial sell off looked wrong - it wasn't the slightly lower year end profit that matters, it is the forecast for the next with is very strong, with increased divi. Looked a strong statement to me and the shares should lift again.

Kainos shares have flown, was tempted to take some profit but this week's statement was very bullish.

XP Power (LON:XPP) shares are reacting well to the trading update. Brokers have pushed up forecasts and a share price target is now near 3000p. Another 500p potential rise to this share price then. On top of the rises there's a big dividend pay out on the way.

ITV is rising nicely and even better it's paid out a big dividend too.

Hollywood Bowl put out a decent statement and is on the rise. As I mentioned above, I couldn't get a lane it was so busy!

Next Fifteen is on the rise after a very decent statement. If it can break through the sticky 550p area, 600 is next. I think it will hit 750p by year end.

So very happy with the last couple of weeks though tempered with keeping a wary eye out for the economy.

I think the main thing to make sure of is don't have too much in anything illiquid as it might get hard to sell.

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