Well, I guess those of you who've only known an easier bull market have now experienced what a down and volatile market is like.
Pants, basically. It's almost impossible to get through it making a decent profit and in muddy waters my aim is simply to not lose the excellent gains from earlier in the year and if I can break even by holding on to the good ones, making from shorts and picking up decent dividends that's fine.
I lost some paper money from the main isa over the last month but made up for it and more with various shorts and my biggest ever wins on ftse shorts as those of you who came to the seminars saw, profits of well over £130,000.
I have banked most of that now though kept open a couple made near the top as a souvenir. I'm gradually going long for the Xmas rally but tempered this year as there are so many variables not usually around that might halt things.
This is usually around when the rally starts but it could be very volatile this time round so care is needed. I please ask you not to email me about the rally as I can't tell you when to/what to do.
There is a whole chapter on it in the Naked Trader Guide to Spreadbetting Edition 2 (get it on this site or amazon for next day delivery).
As I said this year it has to be approached with some caution because of so many influences and political turmoil, Brexit causing big effects.
The FTSE goes up on a weak pound so any Brexit uncertainty or bad news pushes it up as so many FTSE 100 cos are dollar denominated.
Main thing is to be careful of the stake and even a fiver stake could suddenly cause a loss of £1,000 say if the FTSE went down 200 points in a day.
So work out how much you can afford to lose first if you are giving it a go. It has worked over many recent years but there will always be a year when it won't so be careful! One idea might even be to switch to a Dow rally which would take out any Brexit effect.
Tiniest spread is here at just 0.8 on the FTSe
https://www.spreadco.com/nakedtrader/
Back to talking dividends it surprised me, but adding them all up, including a massive sum to arrive Friday from Telecom Plus it comes to over £75,000. Amazing.
A lot my holdings pay out 3-6 per cent and you kind of forget about dividends as they come in as cash and I never click on that bit.
Including dividends overall it has been an excellent year. I managed to get into a load of cash from October which worked well and currently sit in about 60% cash overall.
The shares left I feel are all good ones and will probably leave them now.
I have got lots of firepower to pick up bargain shares which are appearing all over the place.
I've already started gradually picking up packets of shares which look totally oversold from panicked holders.
Indeed I have put up buys on the order books on shares with big spreads to try and pick up shares from panickers or forced sellers very cheaply. Sometimes I get them sometimes I don't.
I bought some H&T (LON:HAT).Some live at the follow up seminar - got in two lots both on direct market access so buying at the "sell price" in effect.
(That's something I teach at seminars, gets a trade off to a flying start as you start at zero rather than a loss)
This pawnbroker looks to be well oversold - it has a big high street presence, no point me telling you what it does, we all know.
But it trades on a very low rating now and it really just looks too low so I have bought with a view to it heading back to the 300p level. It has picked up some debt but nothing anywhere near my limits.
There is also a tasty 5% dividend so it's a nice isa tuckaway. Support looks firm in the 230s at the moment.
I picked up some more Hollywood Bowl (LON:BOWL) on weakness ahead of results.
A real cash cow this one - bowling continues to be very popular and Bowl is carrying on looking at buying up sites and refurbishing.
Shareholders are being rewarded with a massive dividend including a special cash payout early next year.
This share appears to be a .. strike!
Kainos (LON:KNOS) was another brought to the seminar by a delegate (ok then regular attender Rob!) and I managed to buy some live on the day again getting the sell price using DMA.
Very strong growth here and it's on a deserved premium rating which I felt was worth paying. It also has a giant netcash pile.
It's in a sweet spot in digital technology services and worksin government, finance and health.
Another nice long-term isa idea!
I also bought some Kape (LON:KAPE). This one has plentyof potential and a mountain of cash on its side.It will be interesting to see how the cash is putto use next year.
Colefax (LON:CFX) came up at the follow up seminar, chosenby a delegate. Looks like another nice isa tuckaway.
It specialises in high end decoration, furniture and is breaking into the US market very nicely.
Profits keep gradually rising, it has a lot of net cash and pays a decent dividend. Looks quality and a worthy long-term isa entrant.
As broadcast on the Xmas and new year podcast, I bought some Scapa (LON:SCPA) Another share which looks to have been oversold in a down market.
The shares got marked down as profit fell but that was mainly due to acquisition costs. Profits should start to rise for next year.
Directors have come in and bought their own shares including the CEO which is a vote of confidence and the shares could have a decent 2019 with plenty of upside potential.
And the final bit of bargain hunting brought me to gambling firm 888 (LON:888).
This one has been severely hit by the ad curb and other curbs on gambling.
But I reckon this is now well oversold. The US is a whole new market opening up and at the current price if I was a bigger rival I would be making a serious bid for 888.
Profits are still excellent, the outlook is much better and it has a ton of cash.
Of course there is the falling knife risk so I would even so be out for a loss if I had to.
On the sell side I took profits on a lot of shorts that really paid out in the downturn and thank you to Santa for the profits. Shares often rise for the next two weeks so seems worth cashing in the shorts for now and maybe re-visit next year.
Restaurant Group short yielded £1,695 profit.
Just Eat short was closed for a profit of £1,140. The Rightmove short paid out £480.
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THE NAKED TRADER XMAS AND NEW YEAR RADIO SHOW!
https://soundcloud.com/thenakedtrader/christmas-newyear2019
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Sports Direct (LON:SPD)paid out £1980 so profits from those 4 recent shorts pay out a total £5,295.
The marks and spencers short is in massive profit but feel more downside next year so may stay in for more.
I also banked a long termer - Burford, a very nice profit of £21,904. It went up four times and seemed on the way down so I felt it was time to bank the cash! The last nmc went for a profit of £3,280 after it well surpassed target, holding the rest.
So a total profit banked then of £30,479
Overall my best share of the year has been Sopheon. It's doubled to a decent stake so much profit on that. I think there is more to come from Sopheon.
And Ab Dynamics (LON:ABDP), the car testing firm shares have motored up and again, I think there is more to come from these shares in 2019.
Quickest biggest profit of the year was Cakebox with more than £5,000 banked in a short time.
No absolute stinkers this year thanks to tight stops and get out quick policy which did save me on a couple that could have been nasty.
Next year will be interesting. We haven't had a bear market or a while so it would be no surprise and I expect to start next year in plenty of cash.
Whatever your plans. Good luck!
As it's Xmas and time for giving so glad some of you have joined silverline with me and are now making calls to the lonely elderly.
It's easy enough to give money away - a good slug of seminar profits now go to a very good cause - but not so easy to give up time especially in the new tech era when everyone is always on a device.
So if you think you can give just half an hour or an hour up a week sign up to be a volunteer at thesilverline.org.uk. You will find it so rewarding and I have enjoyed so many chats with the elderly this year. There is great training too.