Market conditions remain quite tricky and I'm rather happy I have well over half a million parked away in cash for now.
Beginners certainly might want to hold off till say mid December. The volatility on most shares means it can be easy to suddenly be in a major losing position unless you have exited fast.
And stop losses are tricky too on a lot of shares, it is so volatile it's best to either exit fast or hold on. Or else get stopped out just as it rises again!
My guess is those that did well earlier in the year may suddenly find themselves struggling.
It's likely to remain choppy for a while though from December things are usually calmer.
There are several potential market movers lurking about to make things harder with the main problem, Brexit.
It's been a bonkers week. It's obvious why ministers working on Brexit keep resigning.
There isn't any Brexit plan possible that isn't going to make things worse than they are now. It never was possible.
You can only ever get a bad deal. Or worse, a no deal. This was never going to end well. Love to see the deal Jacob Rich-Mogg would have come up with. I feel sorry for Mrs May having to deal with all.
But the whole sorry saga really throws a totally new spanner in the works as it's so unpredictable like working out which kid is going to win when they are all fighting in the playground.
Hands up who has had enough of Brexit! Is that all of you? Perhaps the soundtrack to Brexit should be the one chosen by The Apprentice candidate to launch a new airline: "Highway To Hell".
That's just one of the reasons I expect to stay in big cash for a while longer, be very wary about what to buy and if wrong quit fast.
After all, why not just wait on some cash and see how it pans out over the next while? Patience can pay and having a lot of cash on the side for now gives firepower for later.
There is so much that could go wrong politically, or right. Things could tank down, or go up? Good luck if you can call it, I am going to wait and see.
The indices like FTSE don't really tell you what is happening.
The FTSE actually likes bad Brexit news as it weakens the £ and as a lot of constituents trade in dollars it pushes the share prices up. Good Brexit news pushes it down.
Different for the UK heavy FTSE 250 companies where the opposite happens. This all makes life complicated for now. Companies will all move different ways depending.
I continue to think it isn't so much Brexit is the worry, it's more if an election comes out of it and the hard left take over. Then we are really in trouble. Though as I said before it might make life easier, just bank profits and go short for 2 years and relax!
I do think one very solid and decent company is Trifast.
I bought Trifast (LON:TRI) at what proved to be a poor price a while back. But my get out quick saved me.
I had a look at its results earlier this week - decent!
So I bought them. Looking at the results they really do look cheap.
The spread is a tad annoying but it is possible to beat it using DMA - those who have been to seminars hopefully you have used what I taught you about buying shares at the "sell" price.
Trifast has been around for 45 years and I was very interested to read it has started "project atlas" - the idea is after a long period of growth to spend on harmonising everything like data, procedures, customer management.
With 1,300 employees and lots of different office in different countries this is very forward thinking and shows management is on the ball.
So this time, hoping these will remain in the isa as a long-term hold for at least in time a return to highs at near 300p.
They have gained a bit since I bought so looking to maybe buy more on market weakness/profit taking.
Two of my favourite long-term shares reported yesterday and both reports were so good I topped up with more.
First AB Dynamics. (LON:ABDP) A huge increase in profits for this car testing outfit. It has found a real niche in car testing and of course the future is autonomous cars - what a market this will be! That's why I topped up and intend to keep holding. Can you imagine what the price might be in 3 years? It has a lot of work on, so much so it is opening new premises and has just launched a state of the art factory where its first suspension measurement machine is being assembled.
ADBP has a ton of cash too - this one should continue to accelerate upwards.
The other buy was Avon Rubber (LON:AVON) As you can expect the shares bounce up and down a lot (!)
Results were excellent for this defence and dairy outfit which has a shed load of cash. Massive demand from the USA for its defence masks and a huge and improving order book.
Again the future looks bright here. And even better for both shares, no interest from traders because they are seen as boring as there is no oil involved , no debt, no jam tomorrow, they aren't penny shares and so no interest. Which is great for people like me as it means loads of people aren't buying and selling like fury to win the cost of a pint of milk.
So I have tucked away more ADBP and AVON and both should continue to do well Brexit or no.
Spirent (LON:SPT) looks interesting - the communications tech co updated today and relieved the market.
It got a big order from a large Chinese equipment maker and picked up decent wins with leading makers for high speed Ethernet.
So orders in Q3 have showed a strong pick up. Looks reasonable for a rise in the share price back up to earlier highs around 140 area.
I've been doing some shorting (betting to go down). I am always amazed so few people go short. I asked for a show of hands at a recent seminar for anyone who had ever shorted. Only two.
If you don't short, how on earth can you make money in a big down year? It's pretty difficult if you are long only. Certainty recent shorting of the indices for me brought in a lot of profit.
I guess most find it hard psychologically. I just look on it as an extra tool to use to make money from this business.
When shorting I always look for shares where there is potential for things to go wrong. Or there is big debt.
Sports Direct (LON:SPD) looks like one of those where things could go wrong. A whole host of problems, not least the state of retailers but also the big gambler Mike Ashley.
I get this feeling he hasn't moved with the times and he keeps on buying . Anyhow I am now short of Sports Direct.
I also shorted Marks and Spencers (MKS) a day or two after its announcement. On the face of it it wasn't too bad but many problems lurk.
I feel a bit disloyal given I am currently in there most days buying food as the Mrs has a broken arm.
The food side of it has been decent but the clothing still looks in a state. Stores are being closed across the country. I am afraid I can only see the clothing side getting worse till that side gets dumped and it goes food only.
There is a long shot of a bid for Marks so in case of that I have a guaranteed stop. So if anything unexpected happened my loss would be smallish.
Also shorted is Restaurant Group. (LON:RTN) It's just done a rights issue to buy Wagamana. It all looks a bit desperate. Wags is a superb chain but one wonders if they were happy to sell thinking they got as far as they could with it.
And I am also short of Rightmove. (LON:RMV) This one faces a lot of competition and the housing market area just
the area to be in for the moment. There is a lot of competition in its area at the mo too.
And I went short of Just Eat (LON:JE.) again. As above competition is rife but a guaranteed stop essential here. Just in case of a bid from a rival. It's doing ok but there are hints that rivals are stealing crumbs off the table.
Bbox kept falling so sold half for an overall £524 profit. (£365 loss on a badly timed top up.) It was there for the big dividends and had some nice ones but I can't ignore the dripdown.
I'd held Accesso (LON:ACSO) for so long (6 years plus) when it was called LOQ buying at under a quid - it did so well motoring through 2000 I literally forgot about it a long time ago. The original small holding stayed in the isa and sipp and I simply hadn't even thought about it for so long more fool me !
I hadn't even realised it went up to 28 quid! But it came up on a fallers list as it crumbled below 20 and I thought well I missed the top by a long way but I may as well bank profits now which even so are huge for the site, profit of £37,227.
I think the lesson with even long-termers is that they are there to be sold if things change and I should have had trailing stops on them. I didn't to the cost of what could have been bigger profits.
However it can be difficult for me, with millions to look after including SIPP, I inevitably have to have a lot of positions even with a lot in cash and sometimes you can lose track of something that's done well bought years ago.
It doesn't matter how long you have been in the markets, there are always lessons to be learned. It never stops! Whether you are a beginner or experienced a lot of care is needed at the moment. Just be cautious! And good luck!