Pressure Mounts on Theresa May to Abandon Brexit Proposal


Comments of the Day
13 November 2018

Big Picture Long Term Audio November 9th 2018

Eoin Treacy's view
A link to today's video commentary is posted in the Subscriber's Area.

Some of the topics covered include: Apple breaks below $200, Banks underperforming, Semiconductors continue to have completing top formation characteristics. Defensives continue to break out, Dollar strong, oil weak, gold weak, copper off its lows. Continues in the Subscriber's Area.

Presidential Cycle today?

Eoin Treacy's view
I’ve been thinking a lot recently about where we are in the stock market cycle and I’m not alone in that. After a significant loss of momentum this year and two aggressive stabs on the downside there are a lot of people asking questions about the market’s condition.

The bond market has been grudgingly nudging yields higher for the last few years as the Fed has persisted in raising rates. At 2.92% right now that is pricing an average of 2 and a bit more interest rate hikes by November 2020. Since the next one is due in a month that’s not a terribly ambitious forecast which suggests fixed income investors do not believe the Fed can continue indefinitely on this current path. It occurred to me over the weekend that something which has not gotten a lot of mention recently is the US Presidential Cycle. Continues in the Subscriber's Area.

Pressure Mounts on Theresa May to Abandon Brexit Proposal
This article by Andrew Atkinson for Bloomberg may be of interest to subscribers. Here is a section:
Getting any divorce deal through a bitterly divided Parliament was always going to be May’s biggest challenge. But as the various factions who oppose May’s approach step up their warnings, it’s looking even trickier than her whips may have calculated.

Pro-Brexit Conservative lawmakers joined forces on Sunday with the Northern Irish party that props up May’s minority government. They threatened to reject the deal she’s working on, even if she persuades the Cabinet to approve it in the coming

“If the government makes the historic mistake of prioritizing placating the EU over establishing an independent and whole U.K., then regrettably we must vote against the deal,” Steve Baker, a former Conservative minister, and Sammy Wilson, Brexit spokesman for the Democratic Unionist Party, wrote in the Sunday Telegraph.

Eoin Treacy's view
Did the chances of a Brexit people thought they were voting for end when Theresa May went into government with the DUP?

The easy answer to the customs union is to cut Northern Ireland loose. However politically untenable that solution was before May lost her majority, it is virtually impossible when a loyalist Northern Irish party holds the balance of power in her administration.

A Fifth of China's Housing Is Empty. That's 50 Million Homes
This article from Bloomberg News may be of interest to subscribers. Here is a section:
Soon-to-be-published research will show roughly 22 percent of China’s urban housing stock is unoccupied, according to Professor Gan Li, who runs the main nationwide study. That adds up to more than 50 million empty homes, he said.

The nightmare scenario for policy makers is that owners of unoccupied dwellings rush to sell if cracks start appearing in the property market, causing prices to spiral. The latest data, from a survey in 2017, also suggests Beijing’s efforts to curb property speculation -- considered by leaders a key threat to
financial and social stability -- are coming up short.

“There’s no other single country with such a high vacancy rate,” said Gan, of Chengdu’s Southwestern University of Finance and Economics. “Should any crack emerge in the property market, the homes to be offloaded will hit China like a flood.”

Eoin Treacy's view
China does not have a property tax so the cost of speculating on property is almost zero. The vast majority of residential units are delivered as empty shells because developers know consumers will want to fit out the apartment to their own specifications. However, that also means there are large numbers of apartment buildings that are vacant and are left to rot because investors are holding them for appreciation purposes rather than ever intending for anyone to live in them.

Long-term themes review October 29th 2018

Eoin Treacy's view
FullerTreacyMoney has a very varied group of people as subscribers. Some of you like to receive our views in written form, while others prefer the first-person experience of listening to the audio or watching daily videos.
The Big Picture Long-Term video, posted every Friday, is aimed squarely at anyone who does not have the time to read the daily commentary but wishes to gain some perspective on what we think the long-term outlook holds. However, I think it is also important to have a clear written record for where we lie in terms of the long-term themes we have identified, particularly as short-term market machinations influence perceptions.
Let me first set up the background; I believe we are in a secular bull market that will not peak for at least another decade and potentially twice that. However, it also worth considering that secular bull markets are occasionally punctuated by recessions and medium-term corrections which generally represent buying opportunities.

2018 has represented a loss of uptrend consistency for the S&P500 following a particularly impressive and persistent advance in 2016 and 2017. Many people are therefore asking whether this is a medium-term correction or a top. There is perhaps no more important question so let’s just focus on that for the moment. Continues in the Subscriber's Area.

The 49th year of The Chart Seminar

Eoin Treacy's view
The next Chart Seminar will be held on 12 and 13 November 2018 at The Army and Navy Club in London.
If you have an interest in attending an online Chart Seminar please contact Sarah and we will arrange times based on the time zones of those who wish to attend.
I am also in initial discussions with a potential partner about organising a New York Seminar.
If you would like to attend or have a suggestion for another venue please feel to reach out to Sarah at [email protected] 

The full rate for The Chart Seminar is £1799 + VAT. (Please note US, Australian and Asian delegates, as non EU residents are not liable for VAT). Subscribers are offered a discounted rate of £850. Anyone booking more than one place can also avail of the £850 rate for the second and subsequent delegates. Continues in the Subscriber's Area.


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