Welcome back! The following was written on Wednesday as out today taking someone to hospital and staying with them. The mail goes out at a certain time on auto pilot so nothing that happened today is included.
An unusual market this summer. Actually not bad for my style.
FTSE 100 tended to drift as it is so influenced by the strength of the pound. Recently it has gained on pound weakness. I shorted it quite heavily in the 7700s as those who came to the seminar saw in the SB accounts - currently up around £15,000 and took a lot of profits as it started to bounce back recently. It seems to be on the way back up due to the weak £ so will have to consider banking the rest maybe soon.
If it carried on back to the 7700s would consider a re-short.
But shares elsewhere did well. Quite a share picker's market.
It was a quiet summer for me, the aim was just to keep things ticking over as spend a lot of time abroad.
The quietness ended up with some nice profits, and a few losses here and there too. Some great statements and some disappointments.
I guess it were always thus in the markets. The main thing as always is to cut the disappointing ones and take loss on the chin and try and stick with the winners if poss or maybe topslice if unsure.
I am ultra cautious at the moment and won't be buying anything till I am really sure about it. More comments on why to be cautious at the end of the report.
My guess is you're not interested in what I bought ages ago or even 4 weeks ago - there have been some nice ones but I think for website purposes trades made a while back I'll just keep to myself! Those at the seminar had a good look at all of them as we went through all my accounts live.
I thought probably stick to more recent trades made just recently and ones I made around the seminar on Monday.
I'd kept an eye on Strix (LON:KETL) as it came up at the follow up seminar. I wasn't totally sure about it, a kind of nearly one.
I thought "heating controls for kettles - that's too boring and I like boring companies..."
But it came up again and I re-thought bought some. Because looking into it it isn't boring at all.
It isn't just for kettles. The company has some decent growth areas including sales of "Aqua Optima" which grew by 88% in the half year.
It's also just agreed a coffee machine collaboration deal with a global US company. Dividend has been doubled.
So, from being cool about this company I think it's hot!
I've bought some SimplyBiz (LON:SBIZ). Ironically this one sounds exciting but is boring but it has continued growth potential.
When I saw the name I thought it was something exciting in showbiz - but actually it supplies compliance and business services to financial advisers and institutions.
(If you want to know more about compliance, ask my mrs).
This appears to be quite a growth area. Ajusted profits were up more than 60pc. It raised £30m from its ipo which paid off net leaving it with some small net cash.
The growth looks fantastic and it now also has the ability to acquire too.
Both KETL and SBIZ have been tucked away on a long-term view in the isas.
Live at the seminar on Monday I bought some FairFX (LON:FFX). We discussed this one quite a bit - the outlook seemed perky for this challenger banking and payments brand biz.
It recently bought Cardone and offers retail and business accounts. Profits are flying high here.
At the seminar we discussed that investors just won't buy shares that have gone up a lot, they only buy ones that have gone down. I was perfectly happy to buy much higher than they have been and was rewarded yesterday with an excellent statement that has pushed the shares higher.
And level 2 looked great on Monday on the shares too and we used it a few times, it is amazing how helpful it is to ensure you buy a share that is probably about to go up.
(Next seminar is an overflow one on Oct 15th, early bird discount just still available...mail me at robbiethetrader@aol.com for details).
I added more to the short in IG Group (LON:IGG) and I also shorted PLUS, another CFD/spreadbetting company.
CFD and spread companies are being hit by a mix of heavy regulation and lacklustre trading. This year there hasn't been much volatility overall and that has hit the bottom line even though they all make most of their money from high rollers.
I discussed IG shares shorting in the last report - they I think are healthier than Plus but still further to fall I think. They should open today down over 34p as they will have gone ex dividend for that amount. (A reminder I wrote this report yesterday). If not then they are actually up if you see what I mean.
Plus shares have zoomed higher this year on good figures. To me the valuation looked too high after the increases. It says more than 80pc lose on its platform and I wonder if people just blow up their accounts and they'll run out of gamblers?
Onto sells and some profit/loss taking. After so much time it's been a headache trying to find trades in various accounts, I hope to tidy up most here and anything I missed next time.
Aph the top up in the 90s didn't work as it drifted. Sold the topup for a loss of £240 and the 70s top up for a profit of £1,845.
Profit taking kicked in but they are on the turn I think and I am looking to buy back once I am convinced buyers are coming back in to once again add to the ones bought around 50 where profits are still decent.
CCC (LON:CCC) raced well past target and went for a profit of £1,012. Since then the shares have come back and currently looking for an entry point.
The top up in GVC (LON:GVC) went for a profit of £270. In great profits on the rest look to buy back. Rwa went for a profit of £463 - Mainly sold due to big spread - to get back in would definitely use dma.
Rosenblatt proved a big disappointment, it kept drifting and sold for a loss of £495. And I thought that was a safe one. Always remember, nothing is safe!
I did rather like ITV (LON:ITV) but when you like something but it relentlessly drifts down you have to sell it, or else you end up with never selling it as it drops. Better to sell and buy back. Anyhow sold all except for a small spreadbet for a profit of £1,250 . Awaiting time to buy back but the market doesn't like its potential buy of Endemol so sitting back and waiting. Profits were taken in Xpd of £553.
I also did quite a bit of topslicing (taking profits off the top, selling some, not all etc)
DTY (LON:DTY) was sold for a loss of £278 It just didn't seem wise to keep holding with its sector under such a spotlight.
Hat I had to give up on, no movement no interest and I sold for a loss of £210 . I'll wait till something helps to actually moves the shares sometime!
I've held Franchise brands for a long timenow and decided to cash in, selling for a profit of £5,374.
Same comment with 888 held for ages, with gambling shares under the cosh, cashed those in for a profit of £7,629 after a relentless drift down.
Flowtech disappointed. Luckily I had sold half a while back for a great profit but the other half has gone for a loss of £105 after the warning. Shame I didn't have a guaranteed stop. If I'd been a bit quicker off the mark I could even have come away with a profit.
So taking losses and profits into account total profit banked is £17,068.
Elsewhere quite a few of the portfolio holdings announced results recently. K3C came up with a blistering statement which simply made me think "keep on holding". The big money is always made from being patient with the good ones and not taking profits too early. K3C (LON:K3C) should open down today as it went ex dividend like IG.
Nice statement from Next Fifteen (LON:NFC), shares continue a slow rise. The big spread through is so annoying! Sopheon put out a super statement, but needs a kick for a move above 1000p. Cineworld has scooted higher.Great profits on ETO (LON:ETO) which should update soon, people worry about its debt but forget its library is worth more than £1 bln. Also Cakebox, ABDP, and Everymen all seeing terrific gains.
The outlook?I remain very cautious indeed. With lots of top slicing over the summer I hold more than £300,000 in cash.
I suspect I'll probably go even more into cash and think about shorting more.
While there are stocks that will still do well, there is a lot that could cause alarms from big debt all over then world. to the craziness of Trump, Putin etc.
Add in Brexit and the chances of an election plus rising inflation, there is a lot of potential mishaps.
So if you are a beginner I would suggest go very slowly and easily. We could be due a fall.
If you want to learn how to short read my new spreadbetting book (edition 2).
Cheapest way to short is spreadco.com/nakedtrader as their spread is the tightest at 0.8. Also very pleased with execution - FTSE cos the cheapest spreads there too.
NT SUMMER RADIO SHOW No-one has all the answers yet, prizes of £200 and £100 still there to be won, deadline Oct 15th!
https://soundcloud.com/thenakedtrader/radioshow2018
SEMINARS
BEGINNER/IMPROVER OCT 15TH
An overflow event for beginners and improvers as the september event was sold out a month early.
Come and spend a day with me and live markets. All welcome. Includes lots of live markets, trade hunting and a fabulous lunch!
FOLLOW UP: OCT 5TH
For those who have been before. A couple of seats left. Smaller group, lots of trade hunting,supply and demand, level 2, sorting out problems, shorting, and trade planning. Usually some great trades are revealed!
Right I'm off to Salisbury.
I can't believe I have nevergone there to see its famous cathedral with its120 ft spire.