SECTOR: HEALTHCARE; MINING
Evgen Pharma (EVG.L)
SECTOR – HEALTHCARE
RATING – BUY*
MARKET CAP – £12m
CURRENT PRICE – 13p#
TARGET PRICE – 113p
Year-end March
2017A
2018E
2019E
2020E†
Revenue (£m)
-
-
-
7.50
EBITDA (£m)
(3.64)
(3.49)
(4.49)
3.92
Adj. pre-tax Profit (£m)
(3.64)
(3.49)
(4.42)
3.90
Adj. EPS (p)
(4.19)
(2.81)
(3.34)
4.27
DPS (p)
-
-
-
-
Net Cash/(Debt) (£m)
3.91
3.24
(0.54)
3.95
P/E (x)
-
-
-
3.0
Dividend yield (%)
-
-
-
-
EV/EBITDA (x)
-
-
-
2.3
SOURCE: Northland Capital Partners Limited estimates. #Priced at prior trading day close. *Northland Capital Partners Limited acts as Nomad and Broker to Evgen Pharma and therefore this information should be viewed as a Marketing Communication.
Anticipating Two Positive Phase 2 Read-outs in 2018 - Note attached
NORTHLAND VIEW
- Phase 2 trial ‘STEM’ in metastatic breast cancer: With 18 out of the 60 patients in the trial having been dosed as of December 2017, an interim read-out is expected this quarter followed by final topline results in H2’2018E. A compassionate use programme, which allows patients to stay on the drug post trial end, has already been implemented.
- Phase 2 trial ‘SAS’ in subarachnoid haemorrhage (‘SAH’): Following recruitment of 34 patients (by December 2017), final topline results are expected at or around end-2018E. With the shocking termination of Edge Therapeutic’s (NASDAQ:EDGE) Phase 3 study of EG-1962, we believe Evgen’s candidate, SFX-01, is now the most advanced drug candidate amongst ongoing clinical trials for the reduction of brain injury associated with delayed cerebral ischaemia (‘DCI’) caused by SAH.
- Sufficient Cash: December 2017’s placing of new equity, raised £2.3 million for Evgen Pharma (‘Evgen’, ‘the Group’). Together with existing cash, the net proceeds will fund working capital through to the completion of the two ongoing Phase 2 trials, while also contributing modestly towards pre-clinical studies in other disease indications, for example, autism and ischaemic stroke.
- Growing IP estate: The Group continues to broaden its global IP estate relating to novel composition, process and new analogues produced using its core technology, Sulforadex®.
- Valuation: Northland expects SFX-01 to meet the safety and efficacy endpoints for both Phase 2 trials which are due to be published before or around the end of calendar 2018E. Reworking our financial model for Evgen, suggests a new target price of 113p, up from 97p previously. STEM’s Phase 2 interim data is expected to highlight the fact that little of Evgen’s long-term opportunity and relative low-risk profile is presently reflected in its current market valuation.
COMPANY DESCRIPTION
Evgen Pharma is a clinical stage drug development company focused on the treatment of cancer and neurological conditions.
Alexander Mining (AXM.L)
SECTOR – MINING
RATING – CORP*
MARKET CAP – £2.1m
CURRENT PRICE – 0.12p#
ANALYST – DR RYAN D. LONG
Year-end Dec
2015A
2016A
Revenue (£m)
0.0
-
No forecasts provided
EBITDA (£m)
(0.9)
(0.6)
Adj. pre-tax Profit (£m)
(0.9)
(0.6)
Adj. EPS (p)
(0.30)
(0.08)
DPS (p)
-
-
Net Cash/(Debt) (£m)
(0.4)
(0.4)
P/E (x)
-
-
Dividend yield (%)
-
-
EV/EBITDA (x)
-
-
SOURCE: Northland Capital Partners Limited estimates. #Priced at prior trading day close.*Northland Capital Partners acts as Nomad and Broker to Alexander Mining and therefore this information should be viewed as a Marketing Communication.
Research and Development update
NORTHLAND VIEW
Lithium Joint Venture:
- Alexander Mining has agreed an extension and expansion of the Lithium Ore Processing Joint Venture (JV) with Dr Nicholas Welham, Alexander's Principal Technological Consultant and inventor of AmmLeach® and HyperLeach™.
- The JV will now also investigate the potential to reduce the complexity and cost of the conversion process from mineral to battery grade lithium carbonate and/or hydroxide. Preliminary discussions are underway regarding the funding for development stages, subsequent to the initial 'proof of concept' stage.
Hyper Leach®:
- HyperLeach® trials of a nickel-cobalt flotation tailings sample will commence in the coming weeks. Positive results would allow the Company to seek funding to develop a small-scale, low-cost operation to produce battery-grade nickel sulphate and cobalt sulphate for sale into the battery market.
- A second HyperLeach® trial is planned to run for the next few months to examine the heap leaching of low-grade copper sulphide ores, which are notoriously slow to leach under atmospheric conditions.
Alexander Mining continues to focus on finding routes that could lead to the commercialisation of its technology. These latest initiatives focus on the battery minerals sector, which is an area that the Company believes is poised for significant growth with the increased importance of energy storage and electric vehicles.
COMPANY DESCRIPTION
Alexander Mining is a mineral processing technology business, seeking to commercialise its leaching technologies.
N4 PHARMA (N4P.L)
SECTOR – HEALTHCARE
MARKET CAP – £17.4m
CURRENT PRICE – 20.0p#
ANALYST – BARRY GIBB
Year-end Dec
2016A
2017A
2018E
2019E
Revenue (£m)
-
-
No forecasts provided
EBITDA (£m)
-
-
Adj. pre-tax Profit (£m)
(0.19)
(0.90)
Adj. EPS (p)
(2.0)
(1.3)
DPS (p)
-
-
Net Cash/(Debt) (£m)
0.02
1.33
P/E (x)
-
-
Dividend yield (%)
-
-
EV/EBITDA (x)
-
-
SOURCE: Northland Capital Partners Limited estimates. #Priced at prior trading day close.
Final Results for 2017
NORTHLAND VIEW