China Turns Fiscal Screws While Targeting GDP Growth Around 6.5%


Video commentary for March 5th 2018

Eoin Treacy's view
A link to today's video is posted in the Subscriber's Area.

China Turns Fiscal Screws While Targeting GDP Growth Around 6.5%
This article from Bloomberg News may be of interest to subscribers. Here is a section:

Xi has ratcheted up his drive to curb debt risk, pollution and poverty at a time when the world’s second-largest economy is on a long-term growth slowdown. His efforts to rein in spending contrast with an historic expansion of U.S. borrowing under Donald Trump during a period of economic expansion.
The 2018 targets “suggest slower growth and a fiscal drag,” said Callum Henderson, a managing director for Asia-Pacific at Eurasia Group in Singapore. “This makes sense for China in the context of the new focus on financial de-risking, poverty alleviation and environmental clean-up, but is less good news at the margin for those economies that have high export exposure to China.”
Growth handily surpassed 2017’s target with a 6.9 percent expansion that was the first acceleration since 2010. Economists forecast a moderation to 6.5 percent this year amid the ongoing deleveraging drive and trade tensions with the Trump administration and a further deceleration to 6.2 percent in 2019.

Eoin Treacy's view
China has significant challenges ahead as it engages with deleveraging, particularly among the regional lenders. However, it is also worth considering that fiscal discipline at this stage in the cycle is admirable since it will leave the government with some firepower when the economy next slows. That is the exact opposite of what the US government is doing at present which is of course why interest rates are set to continue to rise.

Continues in the Subscriber's Area.

Bitcoin's Plunge in Volume Stirs Questions About Its Usage
This article by Eddie Van Der Walt for Bloomberg may be of interest to subscribers. Here is a section:

Earlier this year, when Bitcoin’s price fell by more than 60 percent from its record close, a less-noticed Bitcoin figure also plunged: the number of daily transactions.

There are many explanations for the fall-off in trading, from software- to news-related. What’s less understood is why the level hasn’t recovered as Bitcoin’s price made a 50 percent comeback since Feb. 5. That’s left some investors wondering whether the cryptocurrency is waning in popularity.
The average number of trades recorded daily has roughly dropped in half from the December highs and touched its lowest in two years last month, even as Bitcoin became a household name and roared back to near $11,000.
The transaction data may be bad news for Bitcoin bulls, according to Charles Morris, chief investment officer of Newscape Capital Group in London, who invests in cryptocurrencies. Trading and purchases on the Bitcoin network, which can be measured by metrics like transaction volume, is indicative of price direction, he said.

Eoin Treacy's view
Following a crash of bitcoin’s magnitude it is only reasonable that some people are shy about now continuing to invest at such a feverous pace. The 69.65% peak to trough decline will have resulted in a large number of people coming under severe hardship but the fall was also enough to encourage bargain hunters at least in the short term. The decline in trading volume is also not so surprising for exactly the same reason. Continue 

OPEC Must Rethink Plans as $60 Oil Brings New Glut, IEA Says
This article by Javier Blas and Grant Smith for Bloomberg may be of interest to subscribers. Here is a section:

"Established producers need to reconsider their production plans quickly and substantially in light of the huge production increase from U.S. shale," the agency’s Executive Director Fatih Birol said Monday on the sidelines of the CERAWeek by IHS Markit conference in Houston. Asked whether he was referring to OPEC nations, Birol said: "All OPEC producers are established producers."
The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies including Russia, Mexico and Kazakhstan agreed to cut production in late 2016 in an effort to clear a glut in crude inventories. They defied the skeptics by going deeper than their pledged curbs and maintaining them for long enough to deplete the bloated stockpiles.
Yet the strategy has also backfired by unleashing “a new wave of growth from the U.S.” that leaves little space for OPEC to increase output once the cuts expire at the end of the year, according to the agency’s report.
The U.S. will dominate global oil markets for years to come, satisfying 80 percent of global demand growth to 2020, the IEA said. Supplies from other non-OPEC nations will make up the rest.

Eoin Treacy's view
US unconventional supply is elastic since the pace of production can only be sustained by continued drilling. When prices are high production can be hedged out as far as two years which ensures profitability. At the same time, drilling multiple horizontal wells is a capital-intensive exercise and the sector has been issuing a great deal of debt to fund production in the hope prices will stay higher for longer. Contnues in the Subscriber's Area.

Email of the day on the yield curve spread and medium-term outlook for bonds
I just have a couple of queries for you:

Where can I find the US yield curve spread chart (10yY-2yY) in your chart library?
Based on expected MT to LT yield rising environment, should I keep my PIMCO income Fund (Global Investor Series Plc), or dispose of it?
Thank you and best regards

Eoin Treacy's view
Thank you for these questions which may be of interest to other subscribers. I created this video to discuss both how to create the chart and save it as a preset template for when you want to find it later which I hope will be of use to you.

Eoin's personal portfolio update February 28th 2018

Eoin Treacy's view
One of the requests subscribers have asked for most over the last few years has been to have an easy way to find what positions I have open at any given time. Therefore, I repost this section on a daily basis and the title will always include the date of my most recent trade. Continues in the Subscriber's Area.

Long-Term Themes Review February 9th 2018

Eoin Treacy's view
FullerTreacyMoney has a very varied group of people as subscribers. Some of you like to receive our views in written form, while others prefer the first-person experience of listening to the audio or watching daily videos.
The Big Picture Long-Term video, posted every Friday, is aimed squarely at anyone who does not have the time to read the daily commentary but wishes to gain some perspective on what we think the long-term outlook holds. However, I think it is also important to have a clear record for where we lie in terms of the long-term themes we have identified, particularly as short-term market machinations influence perceptions.
Here is a brief summary of my view at present. Continues in the Subscriber's Area.

2018, the 49th year of The Chart Seminar

Eoin Treacy's view
The first venue for The Chart Seminar in 2018 will be:

Melbourne on April 16th and 17th. We are currently in the process of confirming a venue. 

I will also hold an online seminar, probably in May over the course of three or four days.

There will be another Seminar in London in November and I am in initial discussions with a potential partner about organising a New York Seminar.

If you would like to attend or have a suggestion for another venue please feel to reach out to Sarah at [email protected] 

The full rate for The Chart Seminar is £1799 + VAT. (Please note US, Australian and Asian delegates, as non EU residents are not liable for VAT). Subscribers are offered a discounted rate of £850. Anyone booking more than one place can also avail of the £850 rate for the second and subsequent delegates.Continues in the Subscriber's Area.

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