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Beware dull markets

Published: 08:17 05 Oct 2017 BST

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FTSE 100 Index called to open flat at 7465 (ex-divs -3.5pts), continuing to consolidate following Tuesday’s successful 7440 breakout. Bulls need a break above yesterday’s 7480 highs to confirm a bullish pennant to 7520. Bears need a break below 7450, if not 7440, to trigger a decent pullback. Watch levels: Bullish 7480, Bearish 7450.

Calls for a flat FTSE start come in spite of yet more record closing highs on Wall St and another mixed-to-down day in Asia where many bourses (CN, KH, SK) are closed for national holidays. Sentiment solid in spite of geopolitics (US Pres Trump, Catalonia, UK PM May).

Australia’s ASX is flat with disappointing retail sales (worst in 4.5yrs) countering buoyancy among Miners as metals prices holding up remarkably well (especially copper) in spite of a USD rebound following strong US data. Japan’s Nikkei is just south of breakeven, unable to capitalise on a slightly weaker Yen. Energy names on both indices remain hampered by lower oil prices amid higher OPEC output.

Note Aussie airline Qantas flying to a fresh record high following a bullish broker upgrade and brewer Asahi doing the same on news of its first beer price increase in a decade. Potential read across for both FTSE airlines and beverages.

FTSE headlines this morning include a Vodafone global rebranding with the new strapline "The future is exciting. Ready?". easyJet traffic stats show passengers +11% in Sept with a load factor +2.5pts to 93.6%. Aviva is to take a majority stake in low-cost, ‘robo’ investment service Wealthify

US equity markets extended their winning streaks to six sessions as well as their tally of fresh record highs. That’s 42, 45 & 53 this year for the S&P, Dow and Nasdaq Comp, respectively. Apple underperformed on reports of delayed iPhone X shipments until December. An oil price reversal also weighed on Energy while a big ISM Non-Manufacturing jump was at odds with a weak ADP print (lowest since Oct 16) ahead of tomorrow’s keenly watched Non-Farm Payrolls jobs report.

Crude Oil prices have stabilised on hopes of a extended OPEC/NOPEC production cut, but record US exports and concerns about revived Libyan output remain a drag, holding both benchmarks (US and Brent) close to 10 day lows. US crude support at $50, Brent  support at $55.4.
Gold has pulled back from yesterday’s spike and held below $1276 overnight, likely hindered by USD strength in the wake of the strong US ISM Non-Manufacturing figure that likely bolsters call for another Fed rate rise. US bourses pushing ever higher also reduces demand for safe havens. Support at $1268, yes, but unable to overcome $1280, and still technically in a downtrend since early September  highs of $1358,

In focus today will be this afternoon’s ECB September Minutes (12.30pm). Draghi made it clear that a decision on QE tapering wouldn’t be made until October, suggesting substantial discussion already which the minutes might helpfully allude to.

This afternoon’s US Factory/Goods Orders (3pm) is only major data of the day, seen rebounding from an extremely weak July, its lowest print since mid-2014. As always, the ex-transport figure may offer a better idea of underlying growth, still on a climb from May’s flirtation with contraction.

A packed speaker docket today sees the BoE, ECB and US Fed all represented. ECB Chief Economist Praet kicks things off (9:30am), delivering opening remarks and chairing the 7th ECB conference on Central Eastern and South-Eastern European Countries (CESEE).

The Fed is represented by Powell (2:10pm), speaking about Treasury markets “(A Look Back and a Look Ahead”), Williams (2:15pm) giving the keynote address at a Banking conference and both Harker (3pm) and George (9:30pm) speaking at an “Investing in America’s Workforce” conference.

The Bank of England’s resident hawk McCafferty (5pm) delivers the Founders Company annual lecture before Chief Economist and notable flip-flopper Haldane (6:30pm) gives a talk entitled “'Central Bank Engagement with Society” at the Economic Research Council.

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