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Donald must deliver

Published: 08:17 26 Apr 2017 BST

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FTSE 100 Index called to open flat at 7275, having traded sideways overnight in a tight range. Importantly, however, it remains above Monday’s 7255 bullish breakout which bodes well in terms of this being natural consolidation, after a near 3% rebound, before another leg higher. Bulls need a break above 7290 highs; Bears still need a breach of 7255. Watch levels: Bullish 7290, Bearish 7270.

Calls for a flat FTSE open come in spite of Asian bourses following their US counterparts higher, the Nasdaq at a new record and the S&P hot on its heels fuelled by a decent earnings season thus far. Markets excited to hear what Trump has to say on Tax reform, giving him an opportunity to finally deliver on pro-growth policy, but conscious of having already failed miserably on Healthcare and little to show for his first hundred days.

Japan’s Nikkei is helped by the Yen weakening back to levels two weeks ago versus the USD on improved global risk appetite, this despite the Dollar index itself being on the back foot due to the EUR rallying after the first round of the French election. Australia’s ASX is higher on its return from a holiday with gains for IT, Financials and Healthcare offsetting a drag from Mining and Energy, base metals rangebound and Oil under the cosh.

Dual-listed FTSE Miner BHP Billiton cut production guidance overnight, echoing Rio Tinto last week, however, well documented bad weather means this came as no surprise. Shares positive down under overnight overcoming yesterday’s Goldman Sachs downgrade of both it and peers. Watch the Banking sector too, with investment bank Credit Suisse 1Q net income beating even the highest of broker estimated and announcing a CHF 4bn rights issue. Santander profits and capital ratio also up.

US equity markets continues their sharp jump higher in anticipation of the Trump administration’s tax reform announcement, with the tech-focused Nasdaq trading above 6,000 for the very first time, while both the S&P500 and Dow Jones indices move closer to their respective all-time highs. Strong Q1 earnings performances from Caterpillar, McDonald’s and DuPont led the Dow over 200 points higher, while the Materials sector led the S&P to within 20 points of a fresh high.

Crude Oil benchmarks pared early gains in the US trading session as API inventory data showed a build in both Crude (900k) and Gasoline (4.4m) inventories. However, both Brent and US benchmarks have made marginal gains in the Asian session to $53 and $49.50 respectively, helped higher by a US dollar trading at its lowest level since November’s US election. Official government inventories, released today at 3:30pm, will provide further insight into the ongoing US production resurgence.

Gold suffered yesterday as a results of renewed appetite for equities, as shown by the precious metal’s almost 1% decline over the course of the day, while major bourses in US and Asia rally sharply. Supporting the yellow metal’s price above $1262/troy oz., however, is increased physical demand in India ahead of the important Hindu festival of Akshaya Tritiya on Friday.

In focus today is a long awaited Trump Tax announcement, although with suggestions of a 10% repatriation tax for overseas cash (to fuel share buybacks, higher dividends?) and a 15% corporation tax (vs. 35%) already out in the open, the risk is markets are left wanting, yet again, with merely aims and priorities rather than any valuable progress on actual implementation.

Top tier macro data is rather lacking with Spanish Mortgage Approvals/Lending and the Swiss ZEW Survey this morning. This afternoon, US MBA Mortgage applications and US Oil Inventories are the only real prints to listen out for, the latter likely continuing to garner most attention in light of OPEC production cuts efforts struggling against rising US production.

Results-wise, Standard Chartered’s Q1 update is out at 9.30am while GlaxoSmithKline reports at midday. US earnings season continues with gusto, another plethora of corporates on the slate including Boeing, PayPal, PepsiCo, Proctor & Gamble, Twitter and many more.

With election risk just as rife at home as on the continent, listen out for what UK Chancellor Hammond has to say this afternoon (2.15pm) when he is grilled by the Treasury Select Committee about the 2017 Spring Budget, focusing on tax.

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